Amstel Gold Race 2015 preview
By David Hunter
Maastricht – Berg en Terblijt 258km
The Ardennes are here and we start with Amstel Gold. A very demanding race, full of climbs, awaits the riders. They know these roads well and will all be aware of the need to be positioned well. Expect a few crashes and all the riders will be hoping for good luck.
The profile is demanding but the racing doesn’t start to heat up until the final 50km. We’ve had two editions of the race, with the “new” finishing position. Instead of being at the top of the Cauberg, it’s 1.8km after it. In 2013, Roman Kreuziger, won from a break. In 2014, Philippe Gilbert, crested alone and won the race. The jury is out on the change of finish and if it really changes the race.
Despite the distance and the many climbs, this race is all about the final ascent of the Cauberg.
It’s 1.2km at 5.8%. These figures don’t really do the climb justice. It’s a brilliant end to the race. You might be mistaken for thinking it isn’t very difficult, but after 250km, imagine sprinting up the whole climb! This is what’s required and that’s why it’s such a hard race.
Gilbert is the defending champion and he loves this climb, having also won the rainbow jersey here. BMC have a super, strong team: Gilbert, Caruso, Burghardt, Dillier, Hermans, Sanchez, Teuns and GVA. The attack of Sami Sanchez, in 2014, was instrumental in Gilbert winning the race. It forced the others into chasing and he got a free ride before choosing the perfect moment to make the crucial move. It’s hard to see BMC not creating the perfect situation for their star but using the same tactic will be hard to pull off. His 2015 form has been pretty good but he hasn’t won yet. He is the number one favourite for this race.
Alejandro Valverde arrives as the second favourite. As usual, his form is brilliant. A win in Mallorca was backed up with third place in Strade Bianche and three stages in Catalunya. The Spaniard is looking seriously good just now and this race is perfect for him. He was second in 2013, but missed out on the 2014 podium after not cooperating with the chasers. A lack of attacking spirit can often hurt him but I sense that he’s getting a little adventurous, in his old age! His team aren’t too strong, they’ll let the others do the work and position Alejandro for the final battle.
Michal Kwiatkowski was 5th in 2014. His form isn’t as good as last year, but he’s still a strong contender for the race. He was the rider who chased down Sami Sanchez, in 2014, and suffered because of it. He couldn’t follow Gilbert and even lost contact with Gerrans and Valverde. His lack of top level form is a worry but his sprinting skills means that he’s the quickest from a small bunch, increasing his chances of success.
Michael Matthews is really starting to look like one of the best riders on the planet. Due to Gerro’s lack of racing, he’s the number 1 rider for Orica. He’s started 2015 in fine form, with a win in PN and Pais Vasco. He looked strong in De Brabantse Pijl and he’s a huge concern for the other riders. If he arrives in the front group, he wins. This could cause him a problem in the finale. No one will want to work for him and he won’t have teammates with him. The Aussie will have to play a clever game with the others. His climbing continues to improve but can he really follow a Gilbert attack?
The rider with the best recent form is Joaquim Rodriguez. He won two stages in Pais Vasco and the GC. He looked amazing and is full of confidence. Bad luck has stopped him from challenging in this race, he’ll be desperate that this doesn’t strike again! He has a much better chance of winning Flèche Wallone, as the climb is much harder, but don’t forget about him here. It would be interesting to see him and Valverde come to the line together. No love is lost between the Spaniards, especially since the 2013 World Championships.
Other riders who arrive in fine form are Sergio Henao, Tom Dumoulin, Tony Gallopin and Fabio Felline. Lotto have three options in Gallopin, Wellens and Vanendert. They have a big chance, if they get their tactics right. They have been very aggressive, this season, and expect more of the same.
Prediction Time
BMC and Orica should ensure a showdown on the Cauberg. Like last year, first over the climb takes the win. On recent form, I’m going with Rodriguez. When he attacks, the others will find it hard to respond.
David Hunter
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