Amstel Gold Race 2016 Preview

By David Hunter

Maastricht – Berg en Terblijt 248.7km

A week of fun awaits the peloton in the Ardennes. We open with Amstel Gold, featuring a ridiculous number of climbs. The racing really begins with 200km gone and we hit the Gulpenerberg, Kruisberg and Eyserbosweg.

This series of climbs does present attackers with an opportunity of getting away from the peloton. Remember that Roman Kreuziger won this race in 2013 with a long range attack, it’s not always a showdown on the Cauberg.

As much as the Taaienberg belongs to Boonen, the Cauberg belongs to Gilbert. He won the World Championships on this hill and has claimed this title on 3 occasions. You get the feeling that Gilbert knows every inch of this berg. It certainly loves him!

Big Phil arrives with a little cloud over his head. He didn’t enjoy a brilliant start to 2016, despite a win in Murcia, but seemed to be getting better in Limburg. Then he gets into a fight with a drunk driver, emptying a can of pepper spray in his face. Gilbert ended up with a broken finger and had to skip De Brabantse Pijl, but was given the all clear for this race. Not the best type of preparation for any race, let alone a big one like this.

Orica have also had an interesting build-up to the race. Gerrans was on lead-out duty for Impey over in Catalunya, but he got his chance in Pais Vasco. The Aussies are usually brilliant at controlling races but they got it wrong in the Basque Country. He arrives in the Ardennes with good form, but his relationship with Matthews is under the microscope. Everyone knows that Orica are going it tough to manage the expectations of both riders, but having two riders over the Cauberg, is a massive plus in this race. We shall have to see if they work together. Both are paid professionals, if they don’t do what is asked of them, they’ll be in a world of trouble!

One of the major talking points is the absence of Alejandro Valverde. He was 2nd in 2013, 4th in 2014 and 2nd in 2015. It is a massive surprise to see him in Leon and only racing Flèche and LBL, I’m really not sure why. Without him, Movistar, will look to attack from distance, with Visconti and the Izagirre brothers in good shape.

The defending champion is back, but he’s now with Sky. The British team really do have a strong squad, with plenty of attacking options. The presence of Sergio Henao, should be a massive plus for Kwiatkowski. He couldn’t follow the attacks on the Cauberg in 2015, but played it very clever and took a very impressive sprint win. With Henao, they have the option of attacking on the climb and letting the Pole follow the wheels until the finish. Sky have had a big say in the recent races, I expect this to continue.

Etixx have two good options: Alaphilippe and Vakoc. The Czech champion is fresh from his win on Wednesday, where he looked very strong. Both riders might be a little young to win here, but I don’t believe in that. The Frenchman is eventually starting to show some good form again, which is a relief for all. Like Sky, they have an attacking option and a sprint option, remember that Alaphilippe packs a mean sprint!

Lotto are another squad with options, in fact they have three of them: Vanendert, Gallopin and Wellens. If they follow recent races, Wellens will go long, Gallopin will attack on the climb and Vanendert will be held in reserve, in the hope that he can solo away after the Cauberg. Three options are better than one, but it would be a surprise if Lotto walked away with the title.

Rui Costa left the Basque Country in very good form. Not only is he sprinting well, he’s climbing well too. Of the three races, he would dearly love to win LBL, wouldn’t they all! Given some of the riders left in the front group, Costa will struggle to make the podium, maybe he should save some energy for the following week.

Tactics

We’ll get attacks but most teams will want to keep the race together for the Cauberg. The road into the bottom of the hill is fast and furious. It really is a sprint into the climb, as any rider with a poor position will not win the race. Orica are usually the best at this, just wait to see Impey hit the front.

BMC have used the same tactic in the last two editions. Once on the Cauberg they like to send a lesser rider on the attack, forcing others to cover. This pulls Gilbert up the climb and he launches his huge attack. He drives and hopes to drop everyone, something he couldn’t do last year. If a rider has a small gap on the top of the hill, they win. If the rider has someone with him, they slow down and we get a regroupment.

Matthews followed the Gilbert attack himself in 2015, this killed his legs for the sprint. They have Gerrans to do the job in 2016, allowing Matthews to follow the wheels and save himself for the big finish. Given their recent relationship, Gerro, might just decide to work with another rider, confident in his own ability to win a sprint. Expect to see him ride with his earpiece out!

Given the sprint of Matthews, the other teams will be forced to try and stop a sprint from happening. This should mean attacking riding from BMC, Sky, Lotto and Etixx. The trouble is the Cauberg isn’t really long enough for all out warfare.

Prediction Time

As I have said before, Michael Matthews is the rider of his generation. He has won 5 stages in Grand Tours, 3 stages in Paris-Nice and was runner up in the World Championships. A big, one day title, is missing from his locker, I expect this to change on Sunday. Orica and Matthews to take the title.

David Hunter

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