Amstel Gold Race 2017 Preview

By David Hunter

Maastricht – Valkenburg 261km

The cobbles are over, it’s time to head for the hills.

The Amstel Gold race is a brutal test of endurance. Despite being 261km long, the road is never flat, the peloton are constantly climbing or descending. The lack of “down time” adds to the general feeling of fatigue, making this a true test of stamina. The 35 hills are not long, but some are steep.

Route Change

The organisers have taken the bold move of tinkering with the finish. Instead of coming around 2km after the top of the Cauberg, they have decided to make the iconic climb the third last hill of the day. Instead, the finish will now be around 5km after the Bemelerberg.

Instead of all the action being on the final climb, the organisers are trying to encourage riders to attack earlier in the race. The Cauberg will still be hugely important, the final ascent crests with around 17km to go. This climb provides a perfect launchpad for late attackers, but what size of group will get away?

When organisers change route, we sometimes see an overly defensive edition, as teams try to understand the new parcours. Hopefully, it doesn’t happen here.

Crucial Points

Kruisberg – 800m at 8.5%.

Eyserbosweg – 1km at 8%.

Fromberg – 1.6km at 4.5%.

Keutenberg – 1.7km at 5.5%.

Cauberg – 700m at 9%.

Geulhemmerberg – 1km at 6%.

Bemelerbeg – 1.2km at 4%.

Given the route change, the most important section of the race is the Kruisberg/Eyserbosweg combo. This is where we’ll see some huge attacks.

Tactics

The beauty of the race is that the hardest climbs are a little further out from the finish. The Kruisberg crests with 38.3km remaining and represents the first real challenge for the bunch. It is very quickly followed by the Eyserbosweg, the toughest of the closing climbs. Then it’s the longer climbs of the Fromberg and Keutenberg, before the infamous Cauberg.

Despite the length of the race and difficulty of the climbs, if you survive in the front group until this point, you will make the finish. The damage needs to be done before. This is where the teams will target, particularly those without a fast sprinter.

QuickStep, BMC, Orica, Sky and Movistar all arrive without a realistic sprint option. That is going to cause a huge problem for the sprinter teams. The quickest sprinters in the field are Michael Matthews(Sunweb), Sonny Colbrelli(Bahrain) and Bryan Coquard(Direct Energie). There is a clear imbalance between the strength of these teams and the ones hoping to drop the sprinters. It sets things up quite nicely.

The big teams will go for long range attacks, in the hope of gradually dropping the domestiques from the sprinter teams, that will make it hard to respond to any late attack.  For a sprint to happen, a few “lesser” riders are going to have to have the rides of their lives.

Weather

Not very warm and there should be rain around for most of the day. The wind is usually not as important here as in the cobbled classics, but it could provide some crosswind action, if the teams want it.

Contenders

Alejandro Valverde – it seems weird that this will be his first race outside of Spain in 2017. The season has started in sparkling fashion for “Bala”, taking the GC in Andalucia, Catalunya and Pais Vasco. He shows no signs of slowing down! Of the three races this week, this is the hardest for him to win, but he does like a challenge. His team look workmanlike, without being exceptional. I think he’ll ride a fairly quiet race, but will look to respond to the attacks of Gilbert and Van Avermaet.

Greg Van Avermaet – now that he has his first monument, just wait and watch him go! Van Avermaet has been in awesome form, taking wins in Omloop, E3, GW and Roubaix. Don’t forget there is a lot more to him than “just” the cobbled classics. In 2016, he was 5th in San Sebastian, 1st in Rio, 2nd in Quebec and 1st in Montreal. He is one of the best one day racers in the world and don’t believe for one second he’ll be tired. Despite a lot of recent races, he has the winning bug, that takes care of any tiredness.

Philippe Gilbert – the Belgian champion is looking to win his 4th Amstel Gold. After a jaw dropping win in Flanders, he skipped Paris-Roubaix, to help prepare for the Ardennes week. Even before Flanders, he was showing form reminiscent of his prime. He was 2nd in Dwars Door Vlaanderen and E3, before going on to take a very impressive win in De Panne. This is the best we’ve seen Gilbert for a number of years, could he be ready to replicate his amazing 2011 where he won all three races in the Ardennes?

Michal Kwiatkowski – the former world champion has started the season in a strong fashion, winning both Strade Bianche and Milan-Sanremo, but despite a couple of high finishes, he did disappoint in Pais Vasco. Is he really back to his best? I think that he isn’t back to his very best and might suffer due to the amount of climbing.

Tim Wellens – another rider that has been a little quiet recently, after a brilliant start to the year. The Belgian took two wins in Mallorca, before enjoying a breakaway success in Andalucia. His 4th place in Brabantse was also a good sign of recent form, he easily bridged over to the front group for the final sprint. This week is a huge moment in his career, at 25 years of age, I think he’s ready to deliver a big win for Lotto Soudal.

Enrico Gasparotto – the defending champion returns with his new team. The Italian might be 35, but last year was one of the best of his career. He has no recent form to speak of, as he has only had eyes for this week. As his team also have Sonny Colbrelli, it seems obvious that Gasparotto will be attacking early. He might even try and refuse to work, saying that he is working for Colbrelli. It will be difficult to win this race for the 3rd time, but I wouldn’t write him off.

Michael Valgren – the big Dane was the surprise of the 2016 edition, finishing in 2nd place. The Ardennes are his big focus, but that hasn’t stopped him putting in some impressive results, including 6th in E3 and 11th in Flanders. He is a very strong unit and will relish a difficult day in the saddle, especially with some rain!

Sonny Colbrelli – 2017 has been an enormous step forward in his career. He won a stage in Paris-Nice, before finishing 7th in E3 and 10th in Flanders. The Italian followed that up with a great win in Brabantse Pijl. This is the rider that Italians all thought he could be and it’s great to see him delivering on his potential. Despite his attack in Brabantse Pijl, I think we’ll see him waiting for a sprint, with Gasparotto used as their attacking option.

Michael Matthews – long term readers will be fully aware of my adoration for the Aussie. He is climbing better than ever before, but I am concerned about the strength of his team. Being the fastest finisher comes with expectation and I’m not sure his team are capable of lasting deep into the race. A lot will be expected of Kelderman, Barguil, Oomen and Geschke. If Matthews is to win this race, they’ll need to bring back an attack featuring riders like Van Avermaet and Gilbert. Are they strong enough to do this?

Bryan Coquard – no way he wins this race. No way!

Prediction Time

There are three riders that stand out: Van Avermaet, Gilbert and Valverde. I don’t think the sprinter teams are strong enough to bring back an attack featuring 5 or 6 of the best in the world. I expect the race to be blown apart on the Eyserbosweg, with the puncheurs  getting away from the peloton. Given his recent form, I simply cannot see past Greg Van Avermaet. He is the best in the world just now.

David Hunter

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