Binck Bank Tour 2018 – Stage 7 Preview

By David Hunter

Lacs de l’Eau d’Heure – Geraardsbergen 209.5km

The big day for the GC.

The organisers have seen sense and decided to make the final stage a little harder. They have added an extra lap of the circuit featuring the Muur, this makes the stage 209.5km in length, something that will cause issues for a few riders. As usual, we have a flat beginning of the stage, as the peloton head to Geraardsbergen, before the fun starts. Once in town, we have four main climbs:-

Denderondeberg – 700m at 8%.

Muur – 1100m at 8.7%, as we all know, this doesn’t do it justice!

Bosberg – 1000m at 6%.

Onkerzelestraat – 1500m at 3%.

The extra lap of this 25.6km circuit is going to make life very difficult for non-classics riders.

Weather

A nice finish to the week, with sun and a few clouds.

Tactics

Today eliminated a few riders from the GC battle, mainly due to crashes and mechanicals. It makes things a little easier to predict.

Bahrain – such a weak team, a real shame for Mohoric who looks incredibly strong. He had to use a lot of energy chasing moves today, he will suffer for that tomorrow. It’s going to be another difficult day in the saddle for the race leader.

Sunweb – they have Matthews sitting 30 seconds down and Kragh Andersen at 34 seconds. This puts the team in a very strong position, but they didn’t take full advantage today. I wonder just how confident the team are that their leaders can follow the big moves on the Muur.

QuickStep – after a crash to Lampaert, they have Schachmann sitting 35 seconds down on GC and Terpstra at 53 seconds. Lampaert was given the same time as the bunch, but his crash looked a sore one and recovering for this stage will be hard. Stybar is also looking very strong, but due to his awful TT, he’s still over 1 minute down. The Belgians animated today’s stage and will do it all over again in Geraardsbergen.

Lotto Soudal – after some great riding by Wellens, he is now 37 seconds behind the race leader. Sitting 1 second ahead of him is Victor Campenaerts, giving Lotto two real options heading into the final stage. Expect more of the same from then as they try to wear down Mohoric.

Same as today, ride hard and drop all of Mohoric’s teammates. That will probably happen during the first lap, leaving him isolated for the next two ascents of the Muur. We will then see attack after attack, Mohoric needs to be very careful not to blow. He chased a lot of moves today, he needs to let rival teams chase each other. This is his only hope.

Wellens, Terpstra, Stuyven, Naesen and Van Avermaet are all strong on the Muur, something they will look to take advantage of. I expect to see the classics experts use their experience to put severe pressure on the other riders. With an extra ascent, it should tip the race in their favour.

Golden Kilometre

9 seconds could be the difference between someone winning or losing the race. Positioned on the penultimate climb of the Bosberg, it was bound to entice riders to attack on the Muur. It is perfect for Wellens, very few can cope with him on such climbs.

Contenders

Tim Wellens – was super strong today and he’ll sense a big chance of taking his 3rd title. He will hope to get away with some strong riders and then battle it out for the stage win. It certainly won’t be easy, as he still has to make up 37 seconds to Mohoric. Not only that, but he has has a time deficit to Schachmann and the Sunweb pair, Matthews and Andersen. This should see Wellens go into full attack mode, something I love to see!

Niki Terpstra – winning the GC looks impossible now, he had a mechanical at a poor time today, making it hard to take any time. The Muur is a very good stage for Terpstra, but the finish isn’t. If he’s going to win, he needs to arrive solo and that will be hard to do. We could see him make the race hard, in order to help Schachmann.

Jasper Stuyven – he’s looked very strong throughout the week. He won this stage last year, but he wasn’t a threat to the race leader. If he’s going to win it this year, he needs to do it the hard way. I expect to see him in the front group, but taking another stage win will be difficult for him, as he won’t be allowed any freedom.

Greg Van Avermaet – his GC bid seems over, but he’ll want a stage win. After the crash of Stefan Küng, BMC don’t have a second option, so it’s all for the stage. They have the squad to make the race hard and I expect to see Van Avermaet attack on the Muur. Tim Wellens would be delighted to get away with him, allowing them to ride away and take the stage and overall win. Considering his current form, Van Avermaet has to be one of the men to beat.

Oli Naesen – regularly trains in this area, he wants to do well in front of his home crowd. Sitting far back on GC means he could get some freedom near the end of the race, similar to how Stuyven won in 2017.

Michael Matthews – sits 2nd on GC, 30 seconds behind Mohoric. This is a brilliant chance for the Aussie to win his first ever stage race. How he approaches the race will be interesting and it really depends on how Mohoric goes. If the race leader is dropped, Matthews can sit in and wait for the sprint finish, he will be very hard to beat on this incline. If Mohoric survives, Matthews will need to go on the attack. If we get a small bunch sprint, he’ll be a hard man to beat.

Soren Kragh Andersen – sitting just 34 seconds behind Mohoric, Sunweb are in a very strong position in this race. As Matthews is the faster sprinter, it would make sense for SKA to be used as an attacking rider. He has the explosive kick required to cope with the Muur, but he doesn’t have a huge amount of experience of this climb. He attacked in the closing stages today, managing to steal 3 seconds to the bunch, I hope that’s an indication of how he’ll approach the final stage.

Prediction Time

This is going to be a hugely difficult stage. Expect to see QuickStep, Sunweb, BMC and Lotto make it a very fast day in the saddle. I think we’ll see Tim Wellens get away with a small group of riders and take the stage and overall title.

David Hunter

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