De Brabantse Pijl 2017 Preview

By David Hunter

Leuven – Overijse 197km

We are in a transition week, as the racing heads from Flanders to the Ardennes, that means it’s time for another brilliant race in the streets of Belgium.

Not as distinguished as some of the other races, this midweek semi-classic always delivers exciting racing. The main reason is the mix of riders we get on the start line. With plenty of recent races, we find cyclists about to peak for a huge week in the Ardennes, but that often allows others a chance at being team leader here.

The climbs also make the race exciting, with 5 coming in the 23.4km circuit, that is tackled three times. We sometimes get a sprint, but we also get breakaway success. It is a race where anything can happen.

Closing Circuit

The race is all about the closing circuit. We head straight through some towns and housing estates, giving us some steep climbs, but also steep descents. Add in narrow roads and road furniture and you see why this is a hard race to control

Hagaard – 360m at 10%.

Hertstraat – 700m at 4.2%.

Holstheide – 950m at 5.3%.

Ijshelderlaam – 1.12km at 4.3%.

Schavei – 700m at 5.2%.

The climbs are not long, but coming in quick succession provide an excellent launchpad for the late breakaway riders. The final climb does crest with around 200m remaining, leaving a flat sprint to the line.

Tactics

If you arrive with a sprint and breakaway option, you have a much better chance in this race. Those that only have a sprinter will be leaned on by the others and this is a race where you can use up your men incredibly fast. Having someone up the road, means you can save your teammates until the very end, if the break comes back.

Most teams will want to be at the front of the race, expect to see many breakaways in the closing laps. Bringing back the break is also very hard, due to the nature of the roads. You can only relax once they are back in the bunch, closing the final few metres can prove to be very difficult.

The best tactics involve getting a rider in every break in the closing 40km, plus keeping your sprinter back for the finish. Sounds easy!

Weather

A cloudy day for the peloton, but the wind speed and direction will interest some teams. We should have a wind of 24km/h coming from the south-west. That means we will have some opportunities for teams to split the race up. Once into the circuit, most of the roads are not exposed.

Contenders

QuickStep – not only do the Belgians have defending champion Petr Vakoc, but they also have two time winner Philippe Gilbert in their squad. What an embarrassment of riches they have. Gilbert, controversially, skipped Paris-Roubaix to focus on the upcoming races. He is sure to still have super form and starts the race as the favourite. Vakoc has not enjoyed the same type of start to the year that he had in 2016, but there was a hint of a return to form in Catalunya. It will be fascinating to see how they manage their tactics, as it’s very doubtful Gilbert can win a sprint against the other quick men here. That should ensure a very attacking race from the Belgians and pain for everyone else!

Bahrain – they have Gasparotto and Colbrelli, two very strong options. Gasparotto was 2nd here in 2016, before going on to win Amstel Gold. Colbrelli was 6th here in 2016, but he has already enjoyed a strong start to the year. Having these two options should ensure  that Bahrain have a big chance in this race. Gasparotto is just back from an altitude camp at Mount Tiede. He followed a different program to the his teammates in Tenerife, as the rest of them are Nibble’s Giro teammates.

BMC – they usually arrive at this race looking to give opportunities to some of their domestiques. Ben Hermans won here in 2015 and they also have strong options in Silvan Dillier, Dylan Teuns and Loic Vliegen.

Tim Wellens – after a brilliant start to 2017, the Belgian has had a quieter time recently. Now back on home soil, we will once again see him at the pointy end of proceedings. He was on the attack here in 2016, but he does seem to lack the explosive punch required to win a race like this. He will go for a long attack, a good tactic in this race, but it will still be hard to win.

Orica Scott – they dominated the race in 2016, but couldn’t turn that dominance into a win. Despite an unbelievable effort by Daryl Impey, they ran out of riders to protect Michael Matthews. When the winning move went, they had no one left to chase. They arrive here with multiple options in Gerrans, Impey and Keukeleire. I think we’ll see them try a different tactic this year, trying to infiltrate the attacks, rather than defending.

Kristian Sbaragli – I’m really starting to warm to the Italian “sprinter”. Given his climbing ability, I think it’s wrong to label him as a sprinter, but he can finish in the top 10 of big sprint stages! Dimension Data have a few options, but Sbaragli looks their strongest card. I don’t see him going with the big attacks, he’ll be saved for a sprint.

JJ Lobato – his winter was disrupted by a knee injury, but he was getting back into the swing of things for Pais Vasco. Unfortunately, he crashed in the opening stage and wasn’t able to challenge on any of the sprints. This is the type of race Jumbo signed him for, given his brilliant climbing ability. It will be a very important couple of days for the Spaniard, his team will expect some big results in this race and Amstel Gold.

Michael Matthews – fresh from a very good Pais Vasco, Matthews enters a big week for him. This is a race that suits him well, but he often out climbs his domestiques. Looking at their squad, he will hope to have Simon Geschke with him until the very end. As Matthews develops into a different type of rider, we might see him attacking in the final lap, instead of waiting until the final sprint.

Bryan Coquard – unlike Matthews, I think Coquard will wait for the sprint. He is a very good climber, but tends to ride defensively in these races. He seems to leave his attacking for French races. He is fresh from two wins in Pays de la Loire, so the form is good. If we get a sprint, he has a big chance.

Prediction Time

Given his current form, it’s very hard to see past Philippe Gilbert. I don’t think anyone will be able to stay with him on the Schavei climb.

David Hunter

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