Il Lombardia 2017 Preview

By David Hunter

Bergamo – Como 247km

It’s the final monument of 2017.

Time for the return of Muro Di Sormano. I cannot wait, unlike most of the riders. Vincenzo Nibali won on this course, back in 2015, can he repeat that success?

Climbs

The climbing starts after 48.5km and we are straight into demanding slopes. Colle Gallo is 7.43km at 6%, with a maximum gradient of 10%. You will quickly see who doesn’t have good legs, at the end of a long season.

The next important climb is the mythical Madonna Del Ghisallo. This is a hugely popular climb, one that riders love to experience. Officially, it is 8.65km at 6.2%, but that includes 4km of flat road. The climb is really 3.5km at 9.2% and another 1.3km at 9.5%. When they pass the church, listen out for the bells.

After a descent of 6km, it’s time for huge fireworks. Firstly, the peloton head up Bivio Colma, 5.15km at 6.6%, before heading up the farm track known as Muro Di Sormano. This was reintroduced to the race in 2015 and was an overwhelming success. It might only be 1920m long, but it has an average gradient of 15.8%, with a maximum of 27%. To make matters worse, each metre is painted on the climb, meaning the riders have to endure an agonising countdown. The race explodes on this climb.

After a period of relative calm, the brutal climbing returns on the slopes of Civiglio. This is another short climb, just 4.2km long, but it has an average gradient of 9.7%. Coming after 226km, this is a very difficult climb, especially with the legs already burning. Only a handful of riders will be in the front group at the top of the climb. A short descent follows, before the final climb of the day.

San Fermo Della Battaglia is 2.7km at 7.2%, quickly followed by a 5km descent to the finishing line.

Weather

Looks like a nice day for the peloton.

Tactics

The normal tactical plans are thrown out the window. A break will go, but it will be brought back a long way before the finish. The race has a number of critical sections, the first one is the climb of Madonna Del Ghisallo and them immediately followed by Bivio Colma and Muro Di Sormano. After these sections, the front group will not be larger than 25 riders, it blows the race totally apart.

After this, we have 30km before the next climb. If one team has a number of domestiques, they can put other teams under pressure by attacking. Depending on the numbers in the peloton, this move could actually win the day, but it is unlikely.

The largest team will probably set tempo, putting all their trust in the team leader. The climb to Civiglio is certainly tough enough for a winning move. Cresting with 17km remaining, there is a good chance of a solo attack staying away.

If not, we roll onto the next climb and the next chance for a winning move. The climb isn’t very long, making it hard to escape, but the descent offers another chance for attackers.

And if all that fails, we get a small sprint!

If we do get a sprint, the group will certainly have less than ten riders in it. Sprinting speeds will be slow, as everyone will be on their knees.

Contenders

Vincenzo Nibali – after a strong Vuelta, he seems to be in amazing form. He was the winner here in 2015, riding a perfect race. That was his first monument win and you know he’ll be desperate for another. His team are also in good form, but the flat finish isn’t ideal for him. Nibali doesn’t have a great sprint, he really needs to arrive solo to win the race.

Rigoberto Uran – also seems in top form, taking a brilliant win in Milano-Torino. The Colombian has enjoyed his best ever season and his first monument would be the perfect end to the year. Uran is a brilliant one day racer and his fast sprint is perfect for a reduced finish. He will be confident in his own ability, but also a little worried about Nibali. His team aren’t the strongest.

Dan Martin – the Irishman brings proper monument experience. A winner of this race in 2014 and LBL in 2015, he relishes difficult and demanding days in the saddle. After the Tour, he had a little break, before easing himself back into competition in the Tour of Britain. His whole focus since July has been on this race. It will be interesting to see how he shapes up against Nibali and Uran.

Julian Alaphilippe – a brilliant rider, but I don’t think he is a good enough climber to win this version of Lombardia, he would have preferred riding into Bergamo.

Bauke Mollema – should be a solid top 10 candidate.

Steven Kruijswijk – same as Mollema.

Nico Roche – despite good form, I can’t help but thinking that he will disappoint in this race. His only good one day form seems to be in San Sebastian and that is a much easier race than Lombardia.

Michal Kwiatkowski – it will be fascinating to see what the Pole has left in his engine. After a brilliant 2017, he has to start as one of the big favourites. There is an enormous amount of climbing in this race, I have a little doubt that he might not be able to compete with Nibali and the other pure climbers. Time will tell.

Thibaut Pinot – 3rd here in 2015 and he’s back to try and win. After a tremendous Giro, the Frenchman has been able to have a relatively easy period. His recent focus has been good and form is picking up nicely for Lombardia. He was able to follow Nibali in Tre Valli, that will have given him a little more confidence. Despite a brilliant career, Pinot has never won a one day race. That is a concern for me.

Prediction Time

I see this as Nibali v Uran v Pinot.

Can the Shark crack them on the climbs? Can he drop them on the descents?

I think no. Instead, we’ll see Rigoberto Uran win a small sprint.

David Hunter

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