Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne 2017 preview

By David Hunter

Kuurne – Kuurne 200.7km

After the fun of Omloop, the action continues.

The “sprinters” classic is often a race for the fast men, but not always. Last year, Jasper Stuyven  won thanks to a daring late attack. It is never easy to deliver a sprint finish. The long section of open road heading towards the finish is great news for the teams of the sprinters, but it is exposed to the wind and we can see lots of echelons here!

Crucial Climbs

Cote du Trieu – 1.26km at 7%, with a maximum of 13%. This is used as a leg warmer, but it’s crucial in terms of position for the Kwaremont. Starting the Kwaremont at the front is vital, the battle starts on the Cote du Trieu.

Oude Kwaremont – 2.2km at 4%, with a maximum of 11.6%. My favourite climb in cycling! It can be split into two sections, firstly we have a steep climb on proper cobbles. Once into the village, it flattens out and the riders just have to deal with the cobbles. This is where the race breaks into pieces.

Kluisberg – 1.1km at 6.3%, with a maximum of 11%. The last climb where damage can be done. The pace of this climb depends on the size of the group and it stops the peloton from  organising a chase until this climb is dealt with.

Tactics

The race always blows apart on the Kwaremont. We have large group of riders who can do this climb at full pace, putting the sprinters and teammates into trouble. We then have a stand off, usually to see which teams want to drive each group. If the front group has the right mix of riders, it can go all the way to the finish. Cooperation is crucial and if the group is too big, we usually see riders unhappy with those not working on the front. That can hand the advantage back to the chase.

In the chase, the peloton have to wait until the climbs are done, before starting to move through the gears. With 50km to go, they still have time to get the group back. Whichever teams have missed the split need to work, this group also needs cooperation for it to succeed. This doesn’t always happen!

If the groups come back together, the final lap circuit is also a place where moves can be made, especially with some wind. Teams need to save riders for the closing kilometres, so they aren’t always too keen to chase down any late attackers.

Tactically speaking, this race is a nightmare to get right!

Contenders

Alexander Kristoff – the big Norwegian has been 2nd here in the last two editions and will be keen to eventually win this race. His squad looks very strong and they’ll need to be. As Kristoff is the big favourite, most will expect them to shoulder a lot of the work. He was climbing well in Oman and sprinting fast too. We shall see if Katusha will try to place riders in the breaks, no team likes to chase all day. He had to DNF today, after being involved in the big crash. He didn’t seem to have any marks on him, so I presume he’ll be fine for this race.

Nacer Bouhanni – the Frenchman arrives with his form on the up. He’s raced in Valenciana and Algarve, but without victory. Like Katusha, the boys from Cofidis look very strong. We know that Bouhanni will not survive on the Kwaremont, so he needs his men to help bring the race back together. In Florian Senechal and Dimi Claeys, they have two riders that are capable of making the big move. That would keep Cofidis happy, allowing them to let another team chase. In the sprint, Bouhanni was a good chance of beating Kristoff.

Edward Theuns – the Trek sprinter is fast in a sprint, especially after a tough day in the saddle. Trek have a seriously strong team here to support him and Stuyven, and I expect them to keep Edward out of the wind until the sprint finish. Has a good chance of a top 5.

Danny Van Poppel – the Sky rider has had a good start to the season. He will be well supported and should threaten the top 5 if it ends in a sprint.

Tom Boonen – crashed today and was involved in the mass pile up, so had to quit Omloop. That means one thing, he will go crazy in this race. Quick-Step got it wrong today and they usually make up for that in Kuurne. Expect a full assault from Boonen and co.

Peter Sagan – super strong today, but made a tactical error with 1.5km to go. No way should he had rolled through and ended up on the front of the group. We’ve seen such mistakes before, but he usually uses them up in “smaller races”. As Bora have Sam Bennett, I think we’ll see Sagan ride an attacking race and not go for the bunch sprint.

Arnaud Demare – looked in fine form today, but just not good enough to make the front selection. He will back himself to do well in the sprint, having already won two stages this season. Certainly a contender for the podium, if we get a sprint.

Magnus Cort Nielsen – the Dane has enjoyed a brilliant start to 2017. He beat Bouhanni and Coquard to a stage in Valenciana and outsprinted Selig and Debusschere to win in Almeria. After a good Vuelta, he seems to have really benefited from having completed a grand tour. If we get a sprint, he has a big chance of surprising the “bigger” names.

Dylan Groenewegen – a race that really suits the Dutch champion. I’m not sure how Jumbo will attack the race, but I think that Groenewegen can follow the front group on the Kwaremont. Once there, his team might decide to drive the front group and not allow the peloton back in. Once in a sprint situation, he has plenty of power to spare! He’s yet to win in 2017, but he has taken 5 top 5 finishes. He is already a top sprinter and will continue to improve over the next couple of years. He will be a superstar of the sport!

Bryan Coquard – he could make it to the end of the race with the peloton, but I just don’t see him beating the likes of Kristoff and Bouhanni in the sprint.

Jasper Stuyven – look frustrated today. The same thing happened in 2016 and he went and won this race. Trek are a strong team, but they didn’t quite have it in Omloop.

Fabio Felline – can do everything! Don’t be surprised to see him contending for the win.

Luke Rowe – another that was good, but just not good enough in Omloop. The Sky rider is clearly carrying some good form and this race gives him another chance of success. He will make the front move, he just needs to carry a little luck with him.

Greg Van Avermaet – the team didn’t want him to do this race, but he has insisted. I think that tells you about his level of motivation! After winning Omloop, expect to see him fighting at the front of the peloton here.

Here is my video preview with Oli Naesen of AG2R https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOos9Fvqf_o

Weather

Should stay dry and the wind is the same strength as it was today. I think we’ll certainly see some echelon action in this race.

Prediction Time

It’s the usually question in this race, break v sprint? Teams like Trek, Sky, BMC, Bora, Quick-Step and AG2R will like the break to win. Fighting for a sprint will be Katusha, Cofidis, Orica-Scott and FDJ.

Certainly seems a difference in quality between the teams that want the break and those that don’t. For that reason, I will go for a breakaway win. It wasn’t a great day today for Team Sky, but I think they’ll come back out fighting. I’ll go for Ian Stannard, he loves a hard day in the saddle.

If we get a sprint, it will finish Kristoff, Bouhanni, Groenewegen.

David Hunter

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