Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2017 Preview
By David Hunter
Liege – Ans 258km
Monument number four of the season.
The Ardennes week finishes with it’s jewel in the crown, the 103rd running of Liege-Bastogne-Liege. The fourth monument of the season, where only Milan-Sanremo can be described as disappointing. I’m hoping for another brilliant edition of this race.
The Climbs
What makes this race so difficult is the constant climbing in the last 100km, and the distance of the race. By the 200km mark, riders are already tired and some cannot cope with the steep climbs. It is a battle for the strong men of the sport.
Due to roadworks, the organisers have had to remove some climbs and have added in Cote de Pont, Cote de Bellevaux and Cote de la Ferme Libert. These climbs are really too far out to have a serious impact on the race.
The finale of the race begins with the legendary climb of La Redoute. This really is a leg killer, maybe this year we’ll see a long range attack succeed.
La Roche-aux-Faucons is the next challenge for the riders, a steep little street in Belgium! Watch out for my favourite sight in this race, the man in a fur coat that runs beside the peloton on this climb.
The final climb is Cote de Saint-Nicolas. After experimenting with adding an extra climb just before the finish, the organisers have decided to return Cote de Saint-Nicolas to the final challenge the riders have to face. A real shame as I did enjoy the cobbled climb, Rue Naniot.
Finale
The longest 1.5km in cycling! The road might only pitch up around 5%, but this seems to take forever. After such a demanding race, this really is a cruel finish. I love it!
Tactics
After a season of long race attacking, I hope we see more of the same here. QuickStep were the team to destroy the early races, looking at the squads, it’s the turn of Team Sky. With Valverde starting the race as overwhelming favourite, they cannot allow him to arrive in the front group for the sprint. We have been here before, the great man will win the sprint!
Instead, Team Sky will look to apply pressure to a weaker than usual Movistar team. Don’t get me wrong, they are good, but not as good as in previous years. Sky have Kwiatkowski, Henao, Moscon and Rosa. Movistar have Valverde and Moreno. The difference in the closing kilometres could be very telling, with Sky’s numerical advantage giving them a huge advantage. They won this race with Poels in 2016 and will expect to hold onto the crown.
Looking to benefit from an aggressive race will be a whole host of teams and individuals. In terms of squad depth, no one can match Team Sky, they don’t even come close. Orica-Scott played a big role in Flèche Wallonne and they do have Albasini, Simon Yates and Adam Yates, but their youngsters are a little untested in the monuments.
What am I saying? Sky to attack on La Redoute and make Movistar chase. This pattern will continue all the way to the finish, but Sky will look to make the killer move on Roche-Aux-Faucons. Some lucky riders will get away with this move and play a big part in the outcome of the race.
Contenders
Team Sky – as I’ve mentioned, they have four real options for the win. Kwiatkowski is the main leader, but I do like the look of Diego Rosa for this race. The young Italian is an outstanding one day rider, he would have won Il Lombardia in 2016, if Astana had not made him work for Aru. If his move doesn’t make it, the former world champion will step forward. He will still be smarting from losing out in Amstel, he really should have won with Gilbert stuck on the front. Already with one monument this season, he has a great chance of taking his second, that would make it an incredible season for the Pole. He won’t beat Valverde in a sprint, he’ll need to drop him before the final 200m. Can he?
Valverde – the man they have to beat. The winner here in 2006, 2008 and 2015, can he take his fourth title? Without Visconti and Izagirre, he’ll certainly have less help late in the race, hopefully that forces him into riding an attacking race. 2017 has been an amazing year for him, but he did look a little short in Amstel. He can be beaten by a long range attack.
Dan Martin – winner here in 2013 and a crash stopped him from defending his title. This is a race that really suits his skill set and he will arrive here with confidence. He finished 2nd in Flèche, despite an awful position on the Mur. He is the undoubted leader for QuickStep, but they are weaker than they would have liked. Without Gilbert and Alaphilippe, they have to rely on some of their “lesser” riders. The Irishman will not be happy unless he takes the win.
Rui Costa – 3rd here in 2016, the Portuguese star is a wonderful one day racer. Now with UAE, he’s enjoyed a very strong start to 2017. He will count on the support of Mohoric, Ulissi and Meintjes, that will give his team options in the closing kilometres. He has a very good chance of a top 5 result.
Greg Van Avermaet – his team left him in an awful position for the Kruisberg in Amstel. He tried his best to get across to the front group, but was just a little off. A week of rest will have been good for the Olympic champion, allowing him to reset his focus for Liege. He will be thinking if Gilbert can win here, so can I! Given his amazing record in one day races in the last year, he cannot be discounted in this race. He won’t wait for the final climb, expect BMC to make the race tough and Van Avermaet will go for a long one.
Romain Bardet – the French superstar has a good chance in this race. He has the attacking nature that is required to be successful and packs an explosive kick on these steep climbs. His team aren’t the strongest but he should be finishing in the top 10.
Michael Albasini – the Swiss strongman was 2nd here in 2016. Looking back at the race, he did make a few errors in the finale, but did mange to get Poels to lead the sprint out. I still can’t quite believe that Albasini didn’t come round him for the win. This year he arrives with help from the Yates boys, something that should be a massive help. This race is good for him and he has plenty of experience to help in the closing kilometres.
Jakob Fuglsang – the Dane is another that can perform well in one day races, remember he won silver in Rio. After the horrible crash to Michael Valgren, Astana will look to Fuglsang to lead their charge. He has an outside chance of making the podium. Due to the tragic death of Michele Scarponi, Astana might not ride the race as a mark of respect.
Ion Izagirre – excellent in Amstel and solid in Fleche. The Spaniard is developing into a excellent one day racer, all that time with Valverde has certainly paid off! This race could be a step too far, but I hope he can continue his good run of form.
Rigoberto Uran – the Colombian has looked in fine recent form and arrives with a big focus on this race. He hasn’t been here since 2013, not riding the Giro has meant he can come here with big goals. A tremendous one day racer, he was very close to winning Il Lombardia in 2016. Cannondale have a fine squad and he’ll have help from Woods and Formolo deep into the race.
Prediction Time
I’ve already picked him for many races this season and I see no reason to change my mind now. We will see an attacking race, with some teams making it very hard for the others. I think Greg Van Avermaet will be the winner. If Gilbert can win here, so can Greg!
David Hunter
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