Strade Bianche 2018 Preview

By David Hunter

Siena – Siena 184km

The best race of the year? I think you could be right.

Okay, who doesn’t love this race? Full of the beautiful white roads of Tuscany, with plenty of little kickers to test the legs. It is possible to split the race at multiple points, last year Lotto blew the peloton to pieces early in the race, other years the gaps have been made much later in the race. Anything can happen and the weather plays a big part.

Weather 

It is looking like a wet edition of Strade Bianche. Tuscany has had rain and snow for most of the week, making the white roads rather muddy. When they get wet, it increases the difficulty of the race and makes for brilliant watching. Strap yourself in for a fantastic race.

Closing Kilometres

Both sections 10 and 11 are very difficult. Coming towards the end of a demanding day, the double digit gradients are very hard to deal with. This is where the favourites start to seriously slim down the front group.

Finale

The finish in Siena is one of the most beautiful in cycling. As the riders climb Piazza del Campo, the fans are on top of them. The road pitches up to 18% and this finish deserves a battle on the slopes. It is an anti-climax when the decisive move has already been made.

Tactics

Last year, Lotto destroyed the peloton early in the race. It’s hard to know if it will happen again. The rain will certainly make the race more difficult, something that will worry team leaders with a weak squad. Given the weather conditions, I would expect to see teams trying to split the race early.

When we get ultra demeaning days in the saddle, tactics can go out the window. These days usually see the strongest riders rise to the top.

Contenders

Michal Kwiatkowski – the winner of the race in 2017 and 2014, this is a route that suits his characteristics. The former world champion had a tremendous year in 2017, claiming wins here and in Milan-Sanremo. Not only that, but he was one of the main reasons Chris Froome defended his Tour de France crown. Sky arrive with a relatively strong team, but they might only have Gianni Moscon to support their leader deep into the race. Can the Pole win his 3rd crown and equal the achievement of Cancellara?

Astana – the team on fire! With Moser, Gatto, Villella and Lutsenko it is possible to see them dominate the closing kilometres. They had three riders towards the end of Omloop, something that was crucial in helping Valgren to the win. For me, Gatto was the big surprise from last week. He did show some good signs in 2017, but that performance was huge. They go into this race with Lutsenko and Moser already having won this season, don’t forget that Moser won this race in 2013. Throw in the Italian pair of Gatto and Villella and I think they start with the strongest team. Astana have always been known as an attacking team, they could try and split things early.

Greg Van Avermaet – after winning in Oman, he’ll be a little disappointed with his Belgian weekend. There were some good signs in Omloop, but he lacked a little speed on the Muur. This is a race that has just evaded him in the past, finishing 2nd in 2017 and 2015. It is well suited to him, but the amount of climbing is just about on his limit. BMC also start with a strong team, they will hope to see Kung and Bettiol support their leader deep into the race. If he hits the foot of Piazza del Campo, in the front group, he’ll win the race. His opponents know this and will try and stop it from happening.

Peter Sagan – another champion that has failed to win this race, finishing 2nd in 2013 and 2014. Coming early in the season, Sagan isn’t always up to full speed. After racing in the Tour Down Under, he decided to skip the opening weekend of the season. I don’t think this will have an adverse impact on his performance, but he does struggle to win here. Last year he had to DNF after being the victim of a stomach bug, I wonder if he’ll be determined to make up for that this year. Similar to Van Avermaet, the amount of climbing is right on his limit, that’s why he struggles to win here.

Tiesj Benoot – he impressed last weekend, but again didn’t carry any luck. His attack was very strong, but he didn’t manage to encourage anyone to stay with him. Benoot then hit a fan at the bottom of the Muur, ending any hope of a result. In KBK, he made the front group, but Astana brought it all back together. He started the season well in Argentina and then returned to his second home of Granada. He spends so much time at altitude, he should really considering buying a house there! After a good block of training, he is lighter than usual at this time of year, that is great news for this race. He will love the amount of climbing and does enjoy horrible weather conditions. I think he could surprise a few.

Luke Durbridge – the big Aussie was strong here in 2017, but a crash in the Aussie RR disrupted his start to 2018. He did return at the weekend, but seemed to lack some of his trademark power. This is a race that suits him, but I still think he’ll be lacking a little compared to his opponents.

Zdenek Stybar – he’ll love the poor conditions. The Czech star won here in 2015, was 2nd in 2016 and 4th in 2017. It is a race that is perfect for him. He’s enjoyed a strong start to the season, looking impressive in the Algarve and Omloop. After a strong showing last year, it was a surprise to see him fade on the final climb. QuickStep also have Gilbert, but I think he’ll be riding in support of Stybar, not a bad domestique! Having the two of them present deep into the race will give them tactical options that the other leaders won’t have, putting them into a strong position. QuickStep will be confident of taking another win.

Alejandro Valverde – the Spaniard has enjoyed a wonderful start to the season, taking wins in Valenciana and Abu Dhabi. He was 3rd here in 2015, when he was surprisingly dropped on the final climb by Stybar and Van Avermaet. He was back in 2016, but missed the crucial move and finished 10th. Given the route, I am surprised by his results here. This week, it was reported that he had stomach issues, but he denied going to a hospital. That would have interrupted his preparation for this race, but we don’t know the full extent of his problem. Due to his start to the season, he has to start as one of the men to beat.

Sep Vanmarcke – given his size, he finds the amount of climbing tough in this race. He is capable of making the front group, but seems to run out of gas in the closing kilometres. His ride on Saturday was incredibly impressive, the attack on the Muur surprised most. Coming into this race, he’ll be hoping for similar legs and to be fighting for the win. It would be a surprise, but it could happen.

Tom Dumoulin – started his season in Abu Dhabi, where a couple of mechanicals ruined his week. He certainly seemed to have good legs and might have won the TT. He was strong here in 2017, finishing 5th in just his second appearance at the race. His first outing was back in 2014, where he was a very respectable 12th. This is a race that you usually  have to experience a few times, before you have a realistic chance of winning. I think Dumoulin now has that experience and is a big threat to the others.

Jasper Stuyven – yet again, he started the opening weekend in brilliant form. The Belgian is a hugely talented rider, but this race is just a little too hard for him. Stuyven will struggle with the relentless climbing, this will be his biggest challenge in the race. He will hope for a settled race, with all the action in the closing kilometres. This would give him a chance of the podium.

Wout Van Aert – the weather is brilliant news for the cyclocross champion. After surprising most in Omloop, he lines up in a race that is much more suited to his talents. Given his recent run of form, he has a chance of taking this crown. Going against him is the amount of climbing in the whole race, something that I’m unsure how he’ll cope with. In his favour is that the race is “only” 184km, but can he really beat the best road cyclists in the world?

Romain Bardet – has great form, but this is first attempt at the white roads. Has all the quality to make the front group, but his inexperience in this race will cost him.

Sonny Colbrelli – I love that he’s racing here. I was very impressed by his performance in the opening weekend, despite not picking up a win. Forget about him being a sprinter, the Italian is turning into a classics man. I would have to think that this race is probably too tough for him, it does have a huge amount of climbing, but he cannot be written off.

Prediction Time

Given the weather forecast, this is going to be a brutal day. I think with the predicted conditions, the race will break up early and a front group of favourites will go clear around sector 6. If a team has multiple numbers in the move, they will have a good chance of success.

The problem is the level of the favourites here. We have the best in the world and having an extra domestique won’t make much of a difference. Similar to last year, I expect to see a front group with Kwiatkowski, Valverde, Stybar, Van Avermaet, Dumoulin, Durbridge and Benoot. Throw in the others I have already mentioned and this is going to be a magnificent race.

Super strong in Omloop and looks in great form. I’m going out on a limb and going for a Tiesj Benoot win, his first in the pro ranks. I think we could see the big favourites mark each other and Tiesj could slip away.

David Hunter

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