Tour de France 2014-Stage 19 preview

By David Hunter

Stage 18 Recap

A large break went away, without Rodriguez and Majka. Astana controlled them well, and only Nieve and Kadri were left at the top of the Tourmalet. On the descent, Valverde attacked, but was caught. At this point the gap was only 3 minutes and Astana smelt blood! Nibali put his men to work and they quickly brought the gap under the minute mark. With around 10km to go it was Chris Horner who attacked. Nibali, remembering the Vuelta, went after him. The Italian soon decided he wanted to do a mountain TT and off he went. He flew past Nieve and claimed a 4th stage win. Majka attacked from the peloton as he needed to finish in the top 6, to secure the polka dot jersey. Near the end of the stage Pinot attacked. He caught Majka and finished 2nd. A great day for Nibali.

Stage 19 Maubourguet Pays du Val d’Amour – Bergerac 208.5km

A day for the sprinters?

At over 200km, it’s a fairly long stage and after 3 hard mountain stages, a lot of riders will be tired. The responsibility to hold the race together will fall to Giant, Lotto, Cannondale and Katusha. The main problem is the cat 4 climb, 13km from the end of the stage. It’s 1.3km at 7.6%, so it will be hard for some of the sprinters. The short distance to the finish will also encourage some late attacks from the bunch.

The sprinters have shared out the spoils so far, Kittel has 3, Kristoff 2 and Griepel 1. Most noticeably, Peter Sagan is still on zero and he isn’t happy!

The late climb is on local farm roads that can barely fit 2 cars on. This means that positioning is everything and I expect the teams to ride very hard into the bottom of the climb. This also provides some of the riders with some drifting space and with 13km remaining, ending the climb at the back of the peloton isn’t a problem. There is plenty time to move back up to the front. The narrow roads also make it very difficult to attack, as Lotto and Giant could easily fill the road.

Everyone will be wondering about Marcel Kittel. After 3 demanding days, how he recovers will be key for this stage. Giant are spoiled for choice, as they can switch to John Degenkolb, if Kittel doesn’t make it. The other sprinters should all make it over the climb, due to the length.

That means we should have Kittel or Degenkolb v Greipel v Kristoff v Sagan v Demare v Coquard v Renshaw. The finish is technical.

There are two, ninety degree left hand bends, near the end of the stage. Having a good lead-out will be important, but some lead-out trains will be lacking numbers, due to the final climb. The racing will be frantic, once we are over the river. Thankfully, the riders are on a very wide road, with 4 lanes. The bad news is the first left hand bend! The riders turn left into 2 small lanes, separated by a traffic island. You need to take the first lane, to avoid braking too much, so imagine the push to be on the front!

The riders stay on this 2 lane road until the next left hand turn. This turn is tight but good bike handlers, will be able to take it at speed. That leads onto the finishing straight. The official map shows a straight road, but looking closer at the maps, there is a dangerous chicane near the finish.

Now, the tour might have insisted that a new road was put in, enabling a straight finish. We’ll have to wait and see.

Prediction time…

With so many teams wanting a sprint, I think we’ll get one. On paper, Kittel should be able to make it over the climb. If he does, he’ll be very hard to beat. There are no roundabouts and rain isn’t forecast, so Kristoff is not suited! Sagan’s bike handling skills will keep him near the front, and Andre Greipel will be there too. These guys know that Kittel will win on Sunday and this is their last chance. That being said, if Kittel is there, he wins.

David Hunter

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