Tour de Suisse 2016 – Stage 5 Preview
By David Hunter
Brig – Cari 126.4km
A short but demanding stage.
We continue with the recent trend and shortening stages but packing in a huge amount of climbing.
With have 2 HC climbs and 1 cat 1. Tough! The opening climb is 16.1km at 6.6%. That is quickly followed by 8.3km at 8.3%. The riders then have a long descent to try and recover before the devilish finishing climb of 10km at 8.9%.
This is brutal! We will quickly see who is here for GC and which riders are just making up the numbers.
Tactics
Teams would like to try and save riders until the end of the stage. In the Giro and Dauphine, short stages were attacked from the very beginning. Looking at the squads at this race, I think we’ll see a conservative approach to the stage. Yes, riders will be dropped, but I think we’ll still have a relatively large peloton at the bottom of the final climb.
Once on the final climb, it’s time to get your team on the front. The climb is long and very challenging. Having a few teammates in the last 5km will be very important. Here’s who could be left:-
Katusha – Spilak, Chernetckii, Machado
BMC – Van Garderen, Atapuma
Sky – Thomas, Lopez, Boswell
Lotto – Kelderman
Lampre – Rui Costa, Durasek, Polanc
Giant – Barguil, Oomen
Cannondale – Talansky, Dombrowski
Lotto – Wellens
IAM – Frank, Pantano, Wyss
Astana – Lopez, Scarponi
AG2R – Latour, Dupont
FDJ – Elissonde
Movistar – Ion Izagirre, Gorka Izagirre, Anacona
Roompot – Weening
CCC – Hirt
Verva – Hnik
I would say that Sky and Movistar look the strongest. Expect to see them take control of the race.
Weather
I’m seeing patchy light rain with some thunder too. When up above 2000m there is a chance of some snow. Yes, it is June!
Contenders
Spilak – the defending champion will love the weather, but he’s still searching for some form.
Van Garderen – has to start the stage as one of the big favourites. Due to Porte’s performances in the Dauphine, the pressure is on the American. His best finish in a mountain stage, this year, is only 5th. He needs to step it up.
Thomas – the winner of Paris-Nice, arrives still with pressure on his shoulders. Most of that seems to come from himself, as he looks to become an elite climber. He climbed brilliantly here in 2015 and I expect more of the same. Would like a slightly stronger team to help.
Rui Costa – the climbs should be a little on the hard side for him, but he does love bad weather. Given his record in this race, he cannot be underestimated.
Lopez – Superman is coming! What a talent he is, but how will he cope with the weather? There are a few questions he needs to answer.
Scarponi – left the Giro in sensational form. It’s a big ask to maintain his form for all of this race, he needs to strike early before his form starts to fade. If he has the same legs as the penultimate stage of the Giro, he will be the strongest here.
Kelderman – the crash of Gesink leaves him all alone, but he should do well. He is a real talent and will now be the team leader at the Tour. With a little pressure off his shoulders, he should perform well.
Frank – local rider, lots of pressure! Was a brilliant 8th in the 2015 Tour, he will be looking to finish on the podium here. He can be inconsistent, so we won’t know until he hits the final slopes.
Ion Izagirre – superstar! Getting better with every year that passes. Has been incredibly consistent in 2016 and is a real contender for the overall title. Doesn’t mind the bad weather either.
Latour – young French hope. He’s had a solid season as he looks to step up the ladder at AG2R. Should be targeting the top 10.
Breakaway Hopes
We already have some big gaps on GC. With Tinkoff in the race lead, there is no need for them to organise the morning chase. The pressure will fall upon the shoulders of the “big” teams, with Sky and Movistar expected to take up most of the early work. I sense an opportunity to build up a big lead. Due to the number of difficult stages approaching, teams will have no interest in taking the overall lead at this point. That would expose your team too early in the race. That makes it a great day for the break. As long as you are not perceived as a threat to the final GC standings, you have a chance.
That opens the door to riders like Tiesj Benoot, Kenny Elissonde, Natnael Berhane, Hubert Dupont, Amets Txurruka, Christophe Riblon, Riccardo Zoidl, Lieuwe Westra and Jelle Vanendert.
Keep An Eye On
Michael Matthews & Peter Sagan – I know, but you can never write these two off. Sagan has already won a mountain stage in the Tour de Suisse, and both riders are capable of amazing performances. They probably won’t win, but they certainly cannot be written off!
Prediction Time
The peloton will stall and argue, so I think the break has a fantastic chance. I’ll go with a rider who has been frustrated this season, Amets Txurruka. Being from the Basque Country, he’ll love the weather and climbs!
David Hunter
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