Tour de Yorkshire 2018 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Halifax – Leeds 187.5km

Time for the Queen stage.

This is the hardest stage the organisers have ever devised. The classified climbs are all difficult, but the day is full of unclassified climbs, some of which are just as hard. One of the local continental teams did a recon of the opening 60km and it took them 2h40m to complete this! That tells you how hard it is.

The Big Climbs

Park Rash – 2.2km at 9.5%. This climb has sections above 20% and is the hardest climb of the day. With over 100km still left to run, it will be fascinating to see if any of the teams have the will to destroy the peloton.

Greenhow Hill – 3.3km at 7.8%. This is a very important climb in the GC battle. The problem for many of the puncheurs is the length. The climbers in the bunch will sense an opportunity to go hard and drop riders like Van Avermaet and Cort Nielsen.

Otley Chewin – 1.4km at 10.7%. This crests with 25km to go, which is still quite far from home, but that run contains very little flat. This is a very hard climb.

Sprint point in Arthington – this unclassified climb features double digit gradients. With bonus seconds on offer at the top, it will be an important point in the race. It crests with 16.5km remaining and with just one more steep bump to attack on.

Weather

Beautiful weather. The wind is around 8mph, but it does come from the south. This means we have a tailwind for the first four climbs, encouraging a fast start. The headwind as we head back to Leeds is bad news for the attackers, but the wind is light.

Tactics

Who wants to smash the race to bits?

Most will be worried about BMC. They have Van Avermaet, Bookwalter and Bevin all within 39 seconds of the leader. That puts them into an extremely strong position, but they only have two other riders. It will be very important for them to try and keep all five riders for the second half of the stage. That means I can’t see them attacking until the Greenhow Climb. Once there, they can play their cards and put pressure on the other teams.

The Astana team isn’t as strong as they would like. A lot of work will have to be shouldered by them, leaving them short for the closing stages. This will be a hard day for them to control.

Team Sky haven’t done much and will want to put on a show on home roads. They don’t have a real option for the GC battle, I think we’ll see them making the early part of the race hard and try to get riders up the road. This has to be their best option.

Contenders

Serge Pauwels – the defending champion is looking in great form. The best climber in the race, he would love a hard race. With his team lacking climbers, it looks like he could be isolated later in the race, making it harder for him to win. Pauwels doesn’t have a sprint, if he is to win the stage, he must arrive solo, exactly what he did last year. It will be interesting to see if anyone can follow his big attack, which I think will come on Otley Chewin.

Greg Van Avermaet – if this race happened a month ago, I would have GVA as the favourite. After such a hard classics campaign, he comes here looking to get back into the rhythm of racing. This race isn’t a big focus for him, which could open the door for his teammates. Saying that, he is a winner and if the chance is there, he’ll take it. A fast sprinter from a small group, the flat finish is good news for him.

Eduard Prades – enjoying a brilliant run of form. After moving from Caja Rural, I’ve been delighted to see him enjoying life as a team leader. Prades is one of those unique riders who can climb and sprint very well. He rides for Euskadi – Murias, not the strongest team in the world, but they are committed. He has a real chance of taking a huge win for him and the team.

Magnus Cort Nielsen – a very tough stage for him. The race leader will be put under a huge amount of pressure and I can’t see him coping.

Paddy Bevin – given his sprinting speed, I would make him BMC’s plan B. He might sit a little behind Bookwalter, but Bevin is a realistic challenger for this stage. As I have mentioned, they will attack from distance, as they have a numerical advantage over their rivals. That could allow the Kiwi some freedom and the chance to chase personal glory.

Owain Doull – will have been very disappointed with his performance on Thursday. He rarely gets leadership opportunities and he blew that one! It will be difficult for him to recover, but Sky will want something out of this race and he still looks their best option for a stage win.

Eddie Dunbar – just 21 years old, the Irishman is a big prospect. Aqua Blue could have a big say in the outcome of this race, they have three challengers for the stage and the overall title. Now, their three challengers lack the power of some of the world tour riders here, but Dunbar has a chance of surprising.

Jonathan Hivert – another rider that will look forward to the flat finish. He would have been a little disappointed with his performance on Friday, but this stage is much better for him. He will hope that the race ends in small sprint, he’ll be the big favourite if it does.

Prediction Time

Chaos! BMC will try and flex their muscles, but I think they’ll find it difficult to escape the pack. On the final climbs, I expect to see Serge Pauwels get away from the group and solo to victory. The stage and GC will belong to the Belgian.

David Hunter

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