Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 2 Preview

By David Hunter

Stirling – Paracombe 148.5km

The hardest stage in the history of the Tour Down Under.

5 laps of the tough circuit in Stirling is followed by a finish in Paracombe, at the top of Torren’s Hill Road. We always see the Stirling circuit, but usually finish with an uphill sprint. Instead of this, the riders head for Paracombe and a finish of 1.2km at 9%. The final climb isn’t the only hard section of the day, the descent of Norton Summit is challenging and could see the race split up.

Beware Norton Summit

This is the point where I would expect Orica to make a point, given their local knowledge. The descent will be used to slim down the peloton and see if they can drop any of the big GC stars, who have relaxed and moved to the back of the bunch. The GC riders cannot relax at any point during this stage, we’re in for a cracker.

This finish was used in 2015, for the first time, and it gave us an exciting end to the stage. The climb takes just over 3 minutes for the best riders to complete, with around 300m of flat before the finishing line. That day we saw Porte v Evans v Pozzovivo v Dumoulin, but after the second group rejoined, Rohan Dennis attacked and took the stage win. The length of the climb makes it very hard for a rider to go solo, it might be steep, but really needs to be another 500m long to split the very best riders.

Climber or Puncheur?

It’s difficult to be conclusive as we only have one past edition to go by and that day the stage was much easier. Finishing just behind Dennis was Evans, Dumoulin, Bouet, Rogers, Porte, Haig, Fernandez and Pozzovivo. This is a mix of pure climbers and tough riders who can climb well. You need to be able to to hold almost 600watts for around 3 minutes. The lighter riders will have an advantage but it won’t scare the puncheurs.

Gorka Izagirre was hugely impressive in 2015, bringing the second group back just before the crest of the climb. That allowed Ruben Fernandez to finish with high, but it also allowed Dennis to attack and win the stage. Izagirre is back, also here is Jasha Sutterlin. The German just broke the Strava record on the hill, on January 16th. We will have to wait and see if they ride for him, Izagirre or Jesus Herrada.

I think the climbers just have the edge on this climb. We’ll see a small group go clear half way up the climb, but if they mess around, a group containing some puncheurs will make contact.

Contenders

Richie Porte – was very strong here in 2015, but still couldn’t drop Cadel Evans. As Richie lacks any type of sprint, his only option is to win solo. Given the length of the climb, this will be difficult to do. BMC have him and Rohan Dennis, that should give them the tactical advantage over the rest of the teams.

Rohan Dennis – won here in 2015, despite starting the climb too far back. That day, he benefitted from being the second best rider on the best team, arguably, he’s back in that position again. If BMC have two riders compared to one from the other squads, it puts them into a very strong position. The team won’t worry which of their riders win, as long as one of them does!

Simon Gerrans – if he gets to the top of the climb, with 300m left in the stage, the win belongs to him. However, there is a doubt that Gerro will be able to cope with the pace set by the pure climbers. As a former winner of LBL, he is no stranger to a 3 minute power effort, so I won’t discount him just yet. He took 2 bonus seconds in stage 1, anymore time bonuses and he’ll be very hard to beat on Willunga.

Esteban Chaves – Orica’s plan B, or A, depending on who you listen to! The climb will be easy for him and he possesses a fast sprint. The little Colombian is a very strong card to play, as long as he’s on form. Coming in January, there is no guarantee he’ll be able to follow the pace of the others. Saying that, he is looking good just now. With Gerrans and Chaves, Orica have two riders that can threaten the dominance of BMC.

Sergio Henao – like his fellow Colombian, Henao can climb very well and sprint faster than most other climbers. When the road kicks up to 9%, he seems to find a new lease of life. A rider who has performed well here in the past, he has a strong team to help.

Jarlinson Pantano – yet another Colombian! In his first race with Trek, Pantano could be the dark horse for the stage. Did you wonder why Mads Pedersen sprinted for bonus seconds? It was to give the Trek team car a good position in the peloton. Pantano knows that he won’t have too many leadership opportunities at Trek, so he needs to make the most of them. Don’t forget, he also possesses a fast sprint.

Jay McCarthy – can he cope with the climb? He was strong in 2016, but wasn’t overly impressive on Corkscrew and Willunga. A year on, he should be capable of climbing better. He took a 3 second bonus in stage 1, putting him into a good position on GC. He showed good form in the nationals and is a serious contender for this stage.

Michael Woods – time to see what the Canadian has. One thing he certainly has is a strong team. Cannondale can count on Tom-Jelte Slagter and Paddy Bevin to help position him at the start of the climb. The fight for the front of the peloton will be fierce as the riders take a tight corner marking the start of Torren’s Hill Road. After that we’ll see if Woods can match his performance from 2016. He is very motivated and this is one of his target races.

Cameron Meyer – for the first time in a number of years, Uni-SA have a rider capable of climbing with the very best. He sailed through the Aussie nationals and seems to have re-found his motivation and drive. A rider with a fast sprint, he might just be given a little freedom by some of his “bigger” rivals.

Who Won’t Win

Peter Sagan – not here to contest this finish. He’ll put McCarthy into position and then pull off.

Nathan Haas – there’s a lot of talk about his form, but I’m still not convinced. When it comes to the crunch, Haas never seems capable of climbing with the very best.

Diego Ulissi – despite a solid performance here in 2014, including a win in Stirling, the Italian doesn’t travel particularly well. He does possess a fast finish, but I think he’ll disappoint.

Petr Vakoc – climb is just too hard for him.

Domenico Pozzovivo – no sprint!

Prediction Time

This is a stage where anything could happen, at any point! The laps in Stirling could be taken very fast, to try and hurt the legs of Gerrans and his fellow puncheurs. We could also see attacks on the descent of Norton Summit. Alternatively, the race could roll along until the final climb. We’ll have to see what the riders decide to do.

I think the winner will win a small sprint, so I’m going to go with Sergio Henao. I don’t see him getting dropped on the climb and his sprint is faster than most climbers.

David Hunter

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