Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 3 Preview

By David Hunter

Glenelg – Victor Harbour 144km

After a huge win for Richie Porte, it seems that he already has one arm in the ochre jersey, but we still have plenty of stages to fight for. Victor Harbour is a regular finishing town for the TDU, but the organisers have decided to change things up this year.

The riders climb from the gun, not something they’re a big fan of. After that, the only KOM point comes after 45km, Sellicks Hill. The full climb is around 8km at around 3%. It’s not a very easy start to the stage and certainly gives the breakaway a chance of establishing a large lead.

Once into Victor Harbour, the riders cover 4 laps of the circuit. Despite not huge elevation gains, the circuit has a couple of challenges. Saying that, the climbs shouldn’t really be enough to drop the sprinters as nearly all the quick men here can climb well.

Breakaway Chances

We don’t get many successful breaks in this race, usually because the GC is incredibly tight until Willunga Hill. 2017 is a different race, especially with Porte already establishing a commanding lead. This stage and the GC position makes good reading for the escape artists. The nature of the finishing circuit makes it hard to bring back a big gap, this is a good day to get into the break.

Aussie Power 

Two stages and two Aussie wins. That makes it eight consecutive stage wins in the TDU, something the locals are quite proud about. I expect this trend to continue, no matter if the break stays away or not.

Weather

The maximum temperature will be around 29 degrees, so a little easier than stage 1. The wind is coming from the East, making it a crosswind for most of the stage. With winds getting up to 28km/h there is a possibility of crosswinds splitting the peloton up. The finishing town is renowned for windy conditions and GC riders will have to be attentive for the whole stage.

Contenders

Luke Durbridge – a perfect pick for the break. Orica will want to pick up more stages, but if they sense the break has a good chance, they’ll be keen to join the fun. They have two break options, Durbo or Howson. Looking back at the road race, Durbo is in fantastic form and would be a huge threat if allowed to escape the pack.

Will Clarke – won a long breakaway stage here in 2012. He’s just made the move to Cannondale-Drapac and would be keen to impress his bosses. The team don’t have a sprinter that can realistically threaten the podium, so joining the break would make a lot of sense.

Callum Scotson – just 20 years old, but what an engine! We saw him on the front of the bunch as we headed towards the final climb in Paracombe. Team Uni-SA have been missing from the breaks, something I’m sure they’re keen to put right!

Ian Stannard – he really hit the peloton hard as they descended from Norton Summit. Yogi will be looking to get some good kilometres in the legs, in advance of his Spring campaign. If they race splits in the crosswinds, he will be one to benefit, as he really is an expert in tough conditions.

Thomas De Gendt – the breakaway King! He needs no introduction or explanation. If he sniffs the break has a chance, he’ll be there.

Jasha Sütterlin – impressive in the People’s Choice Classic, stage 1 and stage 2. He’s been putting in some fast training rides and will now have freedom, thanks to falling far down the GC list. Has a fast sprint, which would worry his breakaway companions.

Caleb Ewan – fastest sprinter here and with the best train. The hills will not be a problem, he’s so light he barely notices them! If the race ends in a sprint, he should make it win number two.

Sam Bennett – can also handle himself on the climbs. This stage is sponsored by his team’s sponsors, it’s one they would love to win. I get the feeling that Sagan will continue to ride in support of the Irishman, especially as he’s sprinting fast.

Prediction Time

The parcours and GC position is perfect for the break. To succeed it really needs to have representation from Orica, and if there, Luke Durbridge is the man for the win.

David Hunter

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