2022 Giro d’Italia – Stage 12 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The wind didn’t end up being felt in the peloton, and that led to a very calm day in the peloton as the riders enjoyed a climb-less day in the Giro. Everything was to play for in the final sprint, where a surprise emerged as the right strategy saw Alberto Dainese storm to the win in the final meters. He beat Fernando Gaviria and Simone Consonni to the line, whilst the main favourites failed to put on a winning performance behind.

Positive: Alberto Dainese putting behind what has been a disastrous season up to now when it comes to sprinting in DSM.

Negative: Nothing to note.

The Route

Stage 12 sees the peloton head from inland back towards the sea, as the peloton go down into Genova for a stage that can, as many before, be called quite tricky. Why is that? A day too easy to create GC differences, but too hard for the sprinters. Or is it? All will depends on how the day’s climbs are ridden. 

The first 100 kilometers of the stage slowly rise to 1000 meters in altitude, in very similar style to Milano-Sanremo. However that isn’t the place where decisions will be made, but rather on the following ascents. 

With 52 kilometers to go summits the climb to La Colletta which is 9 kilometers long with an average gradient of 4%. Nothing too hard, but it will get the legs burning on some, but only a small descent will separate it from the Valico di Trensasco which averages 8% for 4.3 kilometers and this is not an easy climb in any way. Whatever happens here will inevitably have an impact on the stage, it finishes with just 31 kilometers to go. 

After a very technical descent and a punchy section with 16 kilometers to go, there will be some more organization on the road and we’ll understand how it’ll be decided. The final kilometers into the center of Genova are flat. The final straight is around 1 kilometer long, and just like today it features a slight rise to the line which will make life just that little bit harder once again for the fast men.  

The Weather

A calm day, with warm temperatures and no wind to make a difference in the peloton.  

Breakaway chances: 75% 

On paper, an easy day to control early on as the flat is start and simple and if there was unity, some teams could control the peloton. However with Girmay out and van der Poel without a team for harder ascents the riders will face, there will be no team burning up their strengths to fight for a stage win.  

If an early breakaway can succeed it depends on who is there, but despite the basic start I think it’s likely that it will be the case. If not, then a late attack is likely to succeed, I don’t envision a sprint being the winning scenario.  

The Favourites 

There is no clear favourite for this stage, no matter what you see written. It is too easy for the climbers to attack and make differences, but it’s too hard for the sprinters to survive. But even in a breakaway scenario the favourites are not clear, as the stage can be decided in multiple scenarios. Let’s break these down…  

In the GC riders, don’t expect any to be able to get a gap and survive as there will be teammates for several teams who should be able to cancel the attacks in the run-up to the line. The likes of Romain Bardet, Richard Carapaz, João Almeida, Pello Bilbao and Alejandro Valverde are decent contenders for a reduced group sprint.  

From the climbers who can take advantage of a caught breakaway and a hard race along the climbs, for a late attack that can succeed you find names such as Hugh Carthy, Lennard Kämna (breakaway possibility too), Koen Bouwman, Wilco Kelderman, Lucas Hamilton and Simon Yates.  

Some of these riders could be in a breakaway, however it’s unlikely. There will be others likely trying to get in that move, and there are some riders who can do so and then have the need to make the difference in the ascents: Mauri Vansevenant, Davide Formolo, Bauke Mollema, Mikael Cherel, Rein Taaramäe, Tom Dumoulin, Joe Dombrowski, Nans Peters, Davide Villella and Rémy Rochas. 

As for others who can be in the breakaway, climb and have possibilities of going for a win, you can further include the following cards: Gijs Leemreize, Felix Gall, Attila Valter, Alessandro Covi, Diego Ulissi, Lorenzo Rota, Thomas de Gendt, Alessandro De Marchi, Andrea Vendrame, Fabio Felline, Stefano Oldani, Mauro Schmid, Natnael Tesfatsion and Magnus Cort Nielsen.  

I would also include Mathieu van der Poel on this final list aswell as Vincenzo Albanese who are well suited to such a day, however he can be incorporated in other scenarios.  

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#177 Bert van Lerberghe – Cav will suffer, so stay with him Bert, alongside the fast guys. No point in going for an effort here, let’s save up for tomorrow as it will be his last opportunity.  

#86 Eduardo Sepúlveda – The plan is to get in a breakaway, you and Natnael as that’s the best chance we have of getting a stage win. We’ll ideally have several riders in front, and they’ll help extend the gap throughout the day. As for you, try and save yourself as much as possible as it will be in those two climbs that the differences can be made, and you have to push it to the absolute limit.  

#83 Jefferson Alexander Cepeda – Save your legs,, it will be in the mountains that you can do your thing, days like this there’s little you can do with how the race is going.  

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Bouwman, Peters, Schmid 

⭐⭐Kämna, Formolo, Rota, Cort Nielsen, Covi, Vendrame, M.van der Poel 

⭐ Bilbao, Valverde, S.Yates, Mollema, Taaramae, Dombrowski, Villella, Gall, De Gendt, De Marchi, Felline, Tesfatsion, Albanese 

A very complicated day to predict. My call for the win will be for Lorenzo Rota, has shown a lot of quality this season, and yesterday some great form. With newly-acquired freedom, Intermarche will have the cards to play for a breakaway win.  

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Rúben Silva

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