2022 Milano-Sanremo – Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The longest race of the season. It is the first monument of the year and one of the most special races of the year, one of the tensest aswell for sure.  

The Route 

The biggest pro race in the calendar! Albeit having a slightly different route there 293 kilometers (plus neutral start) will heavily weigh on everyone’s legs by the end, which has it’s usual features except for the first climb of the day.  

The race’s traditional route through the Ligurian sea, includes the Tre Capi. No important attacks will come here, however the teams looking to make damage on the climbs may look to push the pace. 

Capo Mele – 1,9Km; 4.2%; 51.8Km to go 

Capo Cerve – 1.9Km; 2.8%; 46.8Km to go 

Capo Berta – 1.8Km; 6.7%; 39Km to go 

Quickly the riders will move on to the final and decisive features. 

The Cipressa is 5.6Km at an average gradient of 4.1% it doesn’t make for a particularly hard climb, but taking into account when the riders top it they’ll have over 6 hours of racing. It doesn’t usually see attacks, but it is a familiar image to see the teams with puncheurs and punchy sprinters to come to the front and push the pace, this year the climbers too. The purest sprinters try to remain hidden, but always well positioned as the descent from Cipressa is very technical, so not only will there be the teams trying to suffocate the sprinters early on as there will be the fight for positioning before the climb and in the summit of it, making for a very nervous and fast section of the race. 

And the final climb is the Poggio di Sanremo, the hardest easy climb in the world! Like everything in this race, it is influenced by the distance, 287Km ridden at the summit. It is mostly a climb in false flat roads, starting with a set of bends still very near the sea, but in the last 800 meters the steepest ramp in it comes, a short one but 8% of gradient, and it’s a place regularly chosen by riders to make a final attack.

And just as important as the climb is the descent, it’s quite a technical one which allows some recovering after the climb, and it’s a big threat if anyone gets to the bottom solo, no surprise as in the base of it there are only 2200 meters to the line.

As it’s been restablished in 2015, Via Roma will be the place where the winner will be crowned. The finish is familiar already, a flat straightforward road meaning leadouts and chasing are still very possible which is an advantage for the sprinters, but for that they need good support and a smart sense of positioning. And remember, a sprint after 7 hours of racing is different than after 4/5. 

The Weather

As the riders approach the coast they will find moderately strong wind from the northeast. This is great news for those looking to attack, as the whole coastal ride will see a tailwind whilst heading towards Sanremo. Cipressa and Poggio may see crosswinds, not as favourable for attacks but nothing that will prevent. 

Tactics 

The race will be dictated between the climber/puncheur & sprinter balance. It is with certainty that some teams will be pushing the pace very hard on the Capi and Cipressa, at the very least to wear down the sprinters and their teams. How hard will this be is a different question, UAE is certain to be attacking however will they be looking to launch riders on the attack or pace up Cipressa? 

If they pace up the peloton will not have restbite, if they attack the peloton may take it slower and then chase back on the attacks made on the climb. However, with the strong tailwinds that will be seen it is possible more than ever to succeed with a group attack on Cipressa if it’s big and cohesive enough. 

Many big decisions have to be made on the road, the run-up to Poggio is always furious and very complicated for any escapee to survive, however the wind can play a big role in sparking early offensive racing. 

The climbers/puncheurs 

Mostly, you will see these riders in the Poggio, however with the tailwind action and the spotlight that sits over Tadej Pogacar, there may be more action then expected in the ascents, specially early on. Pogacar is indeed one of the main candidates, despite these climbs being far from complicated for the average pro cycling, but alongside Alessandro Covi they will make for a dangerous duo within a team that is focused in the climbs solely. On the other side there is Jumbo-Visma who may be allies, as Wout van Aert would prefer a hard race that would be selective in order to have his best chance of winning, and will have Christophe Laporte as a strong alternative, and Primoz Roglic who should be in support of the duo however not to ignore as he may be a wildcard. 

The likes of Tom Pidcock and Benoit Cosnefroy are also quite dangerous, brilliant puncheurs who should be cards towards the end, Mathieu van der Poel is another but his form is an absolute enigma at the moment and he wouldn’t ordinarily be in the fight for the win on paper. Michal Kwiatkowski, Gonzalo Serrano, Warren Barguil, Max Schachmann, Michael Matthews and Quick-Step duo Andrea Bagioli and Mikkel Honoré will also be names to watch if they have the legs on the day. 

The Sprinters 

As for the sprinters, it will not be a good edition for them as they see a climber come very well within the possibility of the win, and the wind will make the race faster. Both combined, these factors will make the race harder. On the field of sprinters who can ordinarily ride quite well you find Mads Pedersen who was a last-minute addition to the race, however definitely one of the main favourites, but also Bryan Coquard and Alex Aranburu who may enjoy a rough race. 

You have past winners such as Alexander Kristoff and Arnaud Démare who don’t need to prove their worth, pure sprinters such as Fabio Jakobsen and Phil Bauhaus who will be between the riders wishing the most for a conservative race, and a wide array of strong sprinters with different skillsets in Jasper Philipsen, Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo, Nacer Bouhanni and Peter Sagan who are all contenders for the race in their own right.  

Rouleurs 

The race may be decided outside of this group of riders. With the lack of a real climb, it is expected that many rouleurs and classics riders survive the ascents and with a late attack can hold off the peloton. This is not an unusual scenario, and was indeed how the race was decided last year as Soren Kragh Andersen and Jasper Stuyven attacked at the bottom of the Poggio descent and made their damage in the way they know best. 

Of these Andersen will be at the start, whilst the defending champion was forced to miss due to illness like many other riders.. Their moments have to be chosen quite well but if they do, chances of taking a massive win are good. The likes of Filippo Ganna, Anthony Turgis, Matej Mohoric, Greg van Avermaet and Florian Sénéchal will also be riders to consider for such a scenario. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐WV.Aert, M.Pedersen, Pogacar 

⭐⭐Philipsen, Laporte, Covi, Coquard, Démare 

⭐Matthews, van der Poel, Sagan, Aranburu, SK.Andersen, Démare, Roglic, Pidcock, Cosnefroy, Viviani, Nizzolo, Bouhanni, Ganna, Mohoric, Turgis 

It’s a complicated race to predict, always. The most reliable call is for Wout van Aert, Jumbo-Visma are coming into the race with incredible form and with several cards to play. The race will be hard, no doubt, but this is perfect for Wout as the expectations will be on what Pogacar will do so the pressure has shifted and at the same time it’ll make life hard for the sprinters. A sprint win from van Aert in a small group for the finish. 

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Rúben Silva

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