2022 Tour de Pologne – Stage 7 Preview – Ciclismo Internacional

By @EchelonsHub

Imagen

The queen stage of the Tour de Pologne, today’s time-trial turned the GC on it’s head as Thymen Arensman rode to a very strong win in Zakopane, having the best time shortly managing to beat Magnus Sheffield and Ethan Hayter with the best time. Hayter however, despite not taking the win, as ridden into the yellow jersey.  

Positive: Arensman taking the win and Hayter taking over yellow.  

Negative: Sergio Higuita, Quinten Hermans and Richard Carapaz didn’t have an ideal route, and ended up dropping down the GC significantly.   

The Route

In the seventh day the race will finally reach Krakow. Not a completely simple day, with a hilly first half that favours the attackers, aswell as the chances of a strong breakaway forming, however the finale will be very flat and favourable for the sprinters. 

179 kilometers in distance, and a very interesting stage in terms of it’s dynamics. The finale will see the riders into a circuit of five kilometers in distance which will decided the outcome of the race.  

It will be a short circuit and a very fast one. It won’t feature very technical sections, and the final corner comes with 1700 meters to go. From there on a fast section to wrap off the race.  

The Weather

No wind to take note, however the temperatures will be around the 30 degrees which may play in as a factor for the riders in the bunch.  

Breakaway chances: 20% 

The hilly start provides a good platform for a strong group to go up the road, and with the GC gaps done for the race, there will be more riders with freedom to go up the road and chase a win – which would be the only one for the breakaway if it were to happen.  

The Favourites 

Phil Bauhaus – Winner of stage five, both Bauhaus and Jonathan Milan have been racing very strongly this week, amidst several other riders who’ve struggled in the chaos. As the winner of the last sprint in convincing form, he’ll be a favourite to take another.  

Arnaud Démare – Démare has on paper the best leadout but he needs it to work to perfection. Jacopo Guarnieri is an experienced rider, but without showing convincing form, Démare will need everything to fit perfectly in order to take his first win in two months.  

Olav Kooij – Kooij won the opening stage, however he will not have Mike Teunissen to support over this final sprint. However, Jumbo-Visma have a young and powerful team – Kooij included – and they won’t have the pressure to be taking another win.  

Sam Bennett – Bennett has been far from his best, but has finished fifth on one of the sprints. BORA – hansgrohe will bet their cards on him as Meeus abandoned. It will be a reduced leadout however the stage isn’t hard and if Bennett has the run-up to the line well then he may get back to the wins.  

But the competition will spread far and wide. In this race alone you have already seen both Pascal Ackermann and Gerben Thijssen take wins and they will want to repeat that glory if possible. There will be options also from Kaden Groves and Max Kanter as outsiders who could win if they find themselves in the right place, and INEOS who should have protecting Ethan Hayter as a priority however both he and Elia Viviani are capable of going for the stage win too.  

The likes of Jonathan Milan, Hugo Page and Juan Sebastián Molano may also be in the fight if they elude leadout duties, with further outsiders in Edward Theuns, Sam Welsford and Nikias Arndt 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#114 Michel Hessmann – We’ll be looking to protect and work for Olav to try and take a second win, however you have the freedom and the responsibility to attack early on so as to chase the KOM classification. Only 4 points separate you from the jersey, it would be a very good result for you so attack early on and make sure you have your best legs to sprint for those points.  

#63 Jens Keukeleire – No point trying to save up to the sprint, we’ve got some guys with freedom so I want you to try and join the breakaway with the goal of driving the group into a win and trying to fight for it. You’re a strong rouleur and I expect you to be able to resist in those small climbs. 

#227 Jakub Murias – Nothing to loose Jakub, let’s try and get in the breakaway to give you some TV time, ideally we’ll have a few riders in front to try and chase a stage win.  

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Démare, Bauhaus, Kooij 

⭐⭐S.Bennett, Ackermann, Thijssen, Groves 

Kanter, Hayter, Viviani, Molano, Welsford, Theuns 

I never thought I’d say this but Bahrain – Victorious actually seem to have the best leadout. Jonathan Milan is on absolute fire in this race, and Phil Bauhaus has shown the speed to win on two occasions. I expect another triumph for the German, in similar fashion.  

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Rúben Silva

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