Abu Dhabi Tour 2015 Overall Preview

By David Hunter

The first ever Abu Dhabi Tour arrives, thanks to the good people at Velon. To attract such big names, at this time of the year, means that big money has been spent. I’m not a huge fan of cycling in this area, due to the lack of cycling fans. Riding in the desert isn’t very interesting and when they do reach a city, nobody is watching! Money doesn’t guarantee good racing. Rant over, time to focus on the race.

Stage 1 175km

The longest stage of the race and it cuts through the desert. If the wind blows the right way, we could see some echelons. However, motivation is a big factor. I’m not sure if anyone will have the stomach for ripping up the race. We might just see a stroll in the sun, followed by a big sprint.

Stage 2 130km

Nailed on sprint!

Stage 3 140km

The GC day. The boring stage ends with the climb of Jebel Hafeet, 10.5km at 6.5%. It is a long and demanding climb, with plenty of sections above 8 and 9%. This is a proper climb and not a day for puncheurs. Only a handful of riders are capable of winning the stage and the overall title, but they need to cope well with the heat.

Stage 4 110km

Possibly the worst stage ever in the history of cycling. It takes place on the racing track and this is going to be very boring. All the talk will be of F1 and money. This is not cycling, as far as I know it!

Sprinters

With 3 sprint opportunities, there’s plenty for the fast men. Teams only have 6 riders, so it could get a bit messy. Three teams have trains, that should deliver good position for their fast man.

Etixx have Wisniowski, Sabatini and Boonen. The Belgian loves a sprint in this part of the world. He’s not as fast as the other sprinters, but will have great position and that should deliver a podium or two.

Orica have Bewley, Meier, Hayman, Keukeleire and Matthews. The Aussies are brilliant at dictating the final 3km and Matthews had good form in the worlds. Like Boonen, he’s not as quick as some of the other sprinters, but his good from should deliver a victory.

MTN have Goss, Reguigui, Stauff and Bos. People still haven’t worked out that they have an excellent sprint train, but do lack a rider to finish it off. Theo Bos has had a disaster of a year. His best results have been two top 10 finishes and MTN would have expected a lot more. He’s had plenty of bad luck but we all know he is fast. With less pressure, he should do better. Certainly, he should end the race with more top 10s than he’s had all year!

What about Marcel? He’s off to Etixx and didn’t want to do this race. He’s here as the team have forced him to, probably due to the contract with the organisers. His motivation is gone and he has been a DNF in his last 4 races. The short stages are good for him, especially if the speed is down. Giant do arrive with another option, Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian hasn’t enjoyed a great year either, with one win to his name. Helping them will be Albert Timmer and Johannes Frohlinger. No one knows what Kittel turns up, but I wouldn’t be putting any money on him!

Team Sky have been delighted with the 2015 performance of Elia Viviani. Despite not being supported by a lot of riders, he’s taken 6 wins. Again, he will be supported by Fenn and Swift. The three riders work well together and Viviani will be confident of adding to his win total. He goes well in this part of the world, winning a stage in Dubai at the start of the year.

A few teams arrive with a sprinter and one helper:-

Astana – Guardini & Tleubayev.

Drapac – Jones & Brown.

Lampre – Modolo & Cimoai.

Movistar – Lobato & Rojas.

Katusha – Guarnieri & Kozontchuk.

Tinkoff – Sagan & Bennati.

It’s going to be great seeing the World Champion strut his stuff. Sagan is clearly in great form, remember this is the form he’s carried from the Tour de France. In France he finished in the top 5, no fewer than 10 times. What an achievement, on route to another green jersey. He was flying in the Vuelta, taking an early win and was about to have another but was stopped by a motorbike. Then he was stunning in Richmond! He will be keen to get an early win in the rainbow jersey and stop people talking about the curse.

GC Contenders

The climb is hard enough that only climbers can win this race. Astana have all the cards, arriving with Aru and Nibali. The Italians are looking very strong, with Aru fresh from his Vuelta success and Nibali looking back to his old self. Aru has said he’ll ride for Nibali, which is the sensible decision. Despite finishing 3rd in Milan-Torino, Aru wasn’t at his very best. You could see him hanging on at times, but did recover to make the podium. Nibali was stunning in Lombardia. His stinging attacks were exceptional, although he couldn’t shake Pinot. He has to be the big favourite for the race. Going against him is the heat. He’s not always great in the searing heat and with the temperature due to go over 40 degrees, how he handles this, will determine if he wins the race.

Movistar have Visconti and Valverde. Both riders are in good form, but I hope the Italian is allowed some freedom. He was disappointing in Lombardia, but this climb is much more to his liking. As we know, Valverde will be as consistent as ever. A podium or the win is expected from him, just like in every other race!

After Astana and Movistar, most teams arrive with a single rider capable of success. We should see Brambilla, Ulissi, Chaves, Dumoulin and Poels stay with the elite riders for most of the climb. Of these riders, I do like Esteban Chaves. So good in the Vuelta, the Colombian really is starting to fulfil his potential. I have labelled him as a future GT winner and I stand by this prediction, but he does need to work more on his TT position. The heat is good for him and I think he’s the only rider capable of stopping Astana and Movistar.

Prediction TIme

If he handles the heat well, it’s another win for Nibali.

David Hunter

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