BinckBank Tour 2020 – Stage 5 Preview

By David Hunter

Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve > Geraardsbergen 187.5km

The race ends with the usual stage in Geraardsbergen.

We have four climbs of the infamous Kapelmuur, a climb that sends shivers up the spines of us fans.

Weather

The forecast was awful a couple of days ago, but it’s totally changed. It will be sunny, with some wind coming from the south. The riders have dodged a bullet!

Climbs

1km at 9.2%, but it’s the cobbles that help to do the damage.

The Bosberg isn’t long enough to split the top riders, but it kills the weak.

Tactics

This stage promises much, but usually disappoints. We do four climbs of the Kapelmuur, but the race usually ends in some type of sprint. Despite looking awful on paper, the top riders usually find it difficult to put each other into difficulty, but then again, we’ve never had Mathieu van der Poel race it!

The great man gives me some hope. We all know he isn’t scared of attacking from distance and blowing the race apart. The golden kilometre is also well positioned, it comes during the final ascent of the Bosberg, which would normally be taken by the GC group. With 9 seconds available there, and 10 on the finishing line, we still have quite a few riders who can win the GC.

Trek are the team in control of the race, but they don’t have the team to boss things. Pedersen could be left alone in the closing stages; he’ll need to have a clear head when deciding which moves to cover. They would be happy to see the morning break take the stage, and bonus seconds, but other teams will want to fight for stage glory.

Breakaways can be successful in this stage. Thanks to the crash in the opening stage, most riders are well out of the GC picture. It is possible for the morning break to stay away, but it’s also possible for a late attack to stick. With quality riders out of the GC picture, it won’t be easy to chase them down if they make a big move.

Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel – not a great TT from him, but this is his type of stage. All eyes will be on him, which won’t make it easy. Him flying up the Kapelmuur is something I can’t wait to see, but will anyone be able to follow him? I hope he goes early, there’s no point waiting until near the end when things get tactical. The GC title is still within his grasp, but he needs a big ride.

Mads Pedersen – he’s got a decent lead in the battle for the overall win, but this stage will be complicated for him. He’ll need someone from his team to really step up and produce a huge ride. When the moves go on the Muur, I think Pedersen has the legs to follow. I expect to see him cover the moves of MVDP and SKA, but no one else. They are the big threat to him, but he knows he has the speed to take more bonus seconds if they are available. He has a 7 second gap to SKA and 17 to MVDP, but with 19 available during the stage anything can happen.

Søren Kragh Andersen – that was a huge ride by him today, putting him right in the fight for the GC. He’s clearly left the Tour de France with good legs, which makes him one of the main men for this stage. Normally, I would think this stage is a little too hard for him, but given his current form, I think he’ll be challenging. Can he drop Pedersen and take the overall title?

QuickStep – with Štybar, Sénéchal and Lampaert they have three brilliant options for the stage win. This gives them cards to play in the final lap once most domestiques have been dropped. It will be in their interest to make the stage as hard as possible, this will mean when they attack, there won’t be many to chase. Having the three options really does give them the upper hand in terms of the stage win, I look forward to seeing how they approach the circuit.

Michael Gogl – looked good in the Tour de France, and is way out of the GC picture. Gogl is the type of rider who can win from the morning break.

Iván García Cortina & Sonny Colbrelli – the Spaniard has been in fine form of late, and he’ll love this type of stage. If the race ends in a sprint, he has the legs to win. We’ll have to see if he gambles and waits for this to happen, as he also has the ability to attack early and stay away from the peloton. It will be interesting to see how Bahrain approach the stage; they also have Sonny Colbrelli as a strong sprint option. After riding in the service of Landa at the Tour, the Italian will be looking forward to chasing some personal glory. If he left France with good legs, this stage should be well within his capabilities.

Mike Teunissen – another rider who would expect to do well if the race ends in a sprint. Teunissen is nearing top form, after missing a chunk of racing due to a crash.

Stefan Bissegger – a new name to think about. The Swiss rider is doing his first world tour race for EF, and he looks good. After posting a quick TT, he’s right in the GC mix. As he is young, I doubt his team are putting any pressure on his shoulders. Against the big hitters in this race, I can’t see him winning the stage.

Prediction Time

This really is a tough one to try and predict. I want to see MVDP go for a long one, but I fear the stage will again end in a sprint. Given that the main GC riders will have used up some valuable energy I think Sonny Colbrelli will take home the glory, with Mads Pedersen taking home a deserved GC victory,

David Hunter

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