Dubai Tour 2015 – Stage 3 Preview
By David Hunter
Dubai – Hatta 205km
It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for. The final ramp of 18% has dominated the headlines for a few days now, but this stage isn’t just about the last 200 metres.
Despite being flat, the opening part of the stage is dangerous. The riders head out into the desert with a 13mph side wind. It’s early in the stage, which might deter the would-be mischief makers! The stage is long, at over 200km, so the riders might decide to take it easy for the opening 100km. The race should really start after 148.5km.
The Khalba Road Tunnel is where the day will end for the sprinters. Yes, they want to make the “sprint” finish, but this climb is just too hard, for your average fast man.
The first climb is gradual, but the final 2km is at 6%. The riders then descend very fast before tackling the second climb. It’s a wall! 2.6km at an average of 9%. Can you seriously see Cavendish, Degenkolb, Viviani and co get over this?
Lobato and Swift are the best climbers, of the sprinters. Swift took a very impressive victory in Pais Vasco, getting over a cat 1 and cat 2 climb, in the process. That was a big surprise, if he is in top form he has a chance. Lobato can also climb well but Movistar have Valverde, so I can’t see JJ going into the red for this stage.
Once over these climbs, the riders are faced with a challenging finish to the day.
With 12.5km to go, we have 1km at 8.3%, and at 10km to go there is a 500 metre ramp at 8%. After that we have the relative calm of a false flat for 10km….then the fun starts!
It’s not often we get excited about a 200 metre climb, but here goes. 100 metres at 8% followed by 100 metres at 15%. This is a very unusual and interesting finish to a race. Due to the shortness of the climb, the battle for position will be fierce. You simply have to be in the first 10 riders when the climb starts.
Two teams stand out above the rest for a stage like this: Movistar and BMC. Both are full of talented riders and I would expect to see these teams lead the peloton into the finale. BMC don’t just have Gilbert but Daniel Oss and Manuel Quinziato. Oss has been going well in the sprints, finishing in the top 10 on both stages 1 and 2. His 6th place in the Italian Championships showed that he can also climb. Part of the BMC World Champion TTT group, he certainly has a lot of power and power is required for the end of the stage. If King Phil isn’t on form, expect Oss to be given an opportunity.
Alejandro Valverde was downplaying his chances, pre-race. He put the pressure on Lobato but I didn’t believe a word of it. Now that Lobato has failed to take any bonus seconds, he’ll be expected to work for the boss. Most, if not all of the team will survive until the end of the stage. They are such a powerful outfit and used to delivering Valverde into winning positions.
It goes without saying that this finish is perfect for Valverde. Remember him sprinting to victory in the closing stages of Flèche Wallone. Having won in Mallorca, he’s in form. He’s always in form. The guy is a born winner and he’ll be going all out for a win.
Before the race, Joaquim Rodriguez claimed that he wasn’t team leader. Cyclists often tell little lies to help ease pressure, but I believe the little man. Instead, Katusha will look to Chernetskiy. The Russian is an excellent climber and has a fast finish. In my pre-race preview, I reminded everyone of his Vuelta a Burgos form of 2013. He finished 3rd and 5th in the opening 3 stages. These stages all ended with 1km climbs. He’s a contender, unless Purito pulls rank.
The other contenders for this type of finish are: Lars Boom, Enrico Battaglin, Grega Bole, Pippo Pozzato, Geraint Thomas, Michael Valgren, Manuele Boaro and Marco Canola.
The short steep finish does lend itself to the Classics rider and Boom is certainly a rider with a good chance. He usually excels in short, steep finishes. He has a good turn of speed and Astana would be foolish not to ride for him. Even if they have Nibali and Lutsenko in the team.
Some people have mentioned Daniele Ratto as a possible contender. The Italian, now riding for United HealthCare, will be left at the tunnel! The team will look towards Marco Canola, stage winner in the 2014 Giro. The Italian is a decent rider, but Bardiani let him go due to an inflated ego!
Prediction Time
It’s going to be a crazy stage. With the stage and GC up for grabs, the break doesn’t have much of a chance. I will be amazed if the sprinters get over the tunnel climbs, but if they do, the finish looks a bit too hard for them. It doesn’t look hard for Valverde. I expect him to take the stage and GC. Go Alejandro!
David Hunter
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