E3 Harelbeke 2016 Preview

By David Hunter

Harelbeke – Harelbeke 206.4km

The only race named after a motorway! It really sounds like a boring affair, it’s far from it. The peloton continue in Belgium, after DDV on Wednesday, with Gent-Wevelgen to follow on Sunday. Many of the top riders skipped DDV, as the Friday/Sunday race schedule is very demanding.

In 2015, we had a stellar group of 3 riders escape the bunch on the Kwaremont: Thomas, Stybar and Sagan. That day, it was Geraint Thomas who was the strongest and he took the win. The chase behind was looking strong, but when Van Avermaet crashed, it destroyed the organisation. This is a race where the balance between break and chase is very delicate.

This is the only Flemish race that reverses the order of the Paterberg and Kwaremont, something I like to see. The Oude Kwaremont is my favourite climb. Putting the Paterberg before it, slims the peloton down, allowing the Kwaremont to be more decisive. Once over it, the riders have 41km remaining. A lot of this is on open roads, giving the chase group a fair chance of catching the breakaway artists.

With plenty of sprinters represented, the chase behind should be well organised. However, that doesn’t always happen. They sprinter teams have more motivation in 2016, due to a change in route in Gent-Wevelgem. No longer will Sunday’s race offer the big sprint finish, E3 is their best chance. Saying that, it does depend on who has numbers after the Kwaremont.

Of the sprinters here, there is no bigger than Alexander Kristoff. After a tremendous start to the season, he failed to hit the target in Paris-Nice and didn’t make the podium in Milan-Sanremo, it’s not been a great couple of weeks. This has to be a huge target for him, but he will continue to miss Paolini. The current holder of the Flanders title will not be scared of the Paterberg and Kwaremont, but it’s unlikely he’ll go with the attacks. Kristoff will trust his team to bring it back together, he has to really.

Due to the Karnemelkbeekstraat, the proper chase doesn’t start until 30km to go. This climb is underrated, 1.53km at 4.9%, with a maximum of 7.3%. If the lead group is within sight, it gives riders a chase of bridging over, making the front group very strong. It can also blow out some of the helpers, leaving the peloton with few riders left to chase. It certainly helps the break to stay clear. This climb makes it hugely important to get a structured chase after the Kwaremont. The peloton need to get the gap down before this moment, or the break will stay away.

It is wise for teams to arrive with a sprint option and breakaway rider. Most seem to have received the memo!

Tinkoff – Sagan, Gatto.

Etixx – Stybar, Trentin.

IAM – Devenyns, Haussler.

Orica – Keukeleire, Cort.

Katusha – Bystrom, Kristoff.

Lotto  – Benoot, Roelandts

Wanty – Marcato, Claeys.

Trek – Cancellara, Stuyven.

Some teams arrive with one clear options:-

BMC – Van Avermaet.

Astana – Boom.

FDJ – Demare.

Giant – Waeytens.

Bora – Thwaites.

Jumbo – Vanmarcke.

Direct Energie – Coquard.

Southeast – Pozzato.

Team Sky have three options, but all are for the break: Rowe, Stannard and Kwiatkowski. That is one hell of a squad, I can’t wait to see how they play the race.

Who Survives the Kwaremont?

Of the riders mentioned, only a few of them have the power to make it over the Kwaremont, at the front of the race. Riders like Cancellara, Stybar, Sagan, Rowe, Terpstra, Boonen and Stannard are all capable of creating a big split. We could see a small group of 4-6 riders breakaway from the peloton, if that includes Sagan, Cancellara, Rowe and Terpstra I don’t think they’ll be seen again.

Despite his great form, Greg Van Avermaet doesn’t usually compete with the top riders on the Kwaremont. He will expect to lose about 10 seconds, what he then needs is his team. Last year, he had Oss, Drucker and Burghardt to help bring down the gap, but his crashed stopped that plan. He can rely on these riders again. BMC don’t want to bring the sprinters with them, their plan will be to chase the break and let Van Avermaet bridge across by himself.

I am really looking forward to seeing Tiesj Benoot. Given his current form, he has to be one of the main favourites for the race. The problem he will face is out-sprinting the other riders, in particular, Peter Sagan. If Benoot is going to win, it will be from a small group, but it’s hard to imagine Sagan not being there. Sagan blew spectacularly in 2015, but he looks better this year. Had Gaviria not crashed in MSR, I think the world champion would have won.

Fabian Cancellara tried everything to win MSR, it just wasn’t to be. He’s now back in more familiar terrain, expect to see some huge attacks from Cancellara. He has the power to create some big gaps on the cobbles and open roads, he certainly will give it everything he’s got.

The problem for BMC will be the size of the front group after the Kwaremont. If Van Avermaet misses it, they could be left chasing a group containing 6 strong riders. That would dent there chances of bringing the race back together, even if they get help from Katusha. I wonder if GVA will be able to follow the big moves, I’m not too sure.

Form Riders

Fabian Cancellara

Greg Van Avermaet

Luke Rowe

Tiesj Benoot

Peter Sagan

Arnaud Demare

Jurgen Roelandts

Scott Thwaites

Zdenek Stybar

Always Strong

Tom Boonen

Niki Terpstra

Alexander Kristoff

Sep Vanmarcke

Ian Stannard

Michal Kwiatkowski

Etixx Slipping?

We’ve now had Omloop, KBK and DDV. In all races, Etixx have not been up to their usual standard. Looking at their team, they do have Terpstra, Vandenbergh, Boonen, Trentin and Stybar. On the other hand, Lotto, look weaker than they have been recently. I can see Etixx returning to their rightful place at the front of the race. Form wise, Stybar looks like their best bet. Trentin and Boonen do provide them with a sprinting option too.

Prediction Time

The riders that have impressed me the most are Cancellara, Sagan, Rowe, Boasson Hagen and Van Avermaet. They should be able to shine in this race. In terms of teams, Sky and Etixx, are the strongest. It’s hard to see them not being heavily involved in the outcome of the race. Despite the strength of those teams, I think the winner comes from Trek or Tinkoff. Both Cancellara and Sagan are riding incredibly well. Cancellara will attack at the bottom of the Kwaremont, probably only matched by Stybar and Stannard. Watch for Sagan on the second part of the climb, he’ll will come across the gap, who will be able to come with him? I think the front group will be too big and strong for the peloton. They will make it home.

Despite Fabian looking great, I’m going with Sagan. It’s about time he won!

David Hunter

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