Eneco Tour 2015 – Stage 6 Preview
By David Hunter
Heerlen – Houffalize 208.6km
GC day is here. This is the stage they’ve all been waiting for. For starters, it’s nearly 210km, which decreases the number of potential winners. Secondly, we have some tough climbs. There is less climbing than yesterday but these climbs are much more challenging.
The lap circuit features 4 climbs, numbered 7-10:-
7 – Saint Roch, 1km at 11%.
8 – Rue Bois des Moines, 1.2km at 8%.
9 – Achouffe, 800m at 8%.
10 – Le Vieux Chemin, 400m at 5%.
After the climbing is finished, we have 12km to the finishing line. It’s unfair to call this a mini-LBL, but it is a hard stage.
The final lap will see the big moves. Saint-Roch is the hardest climb but it’s the first of the lap. It will be used to hurt the legs and start the selection process. I think the big moves will go on climbs 8 and 9. A slope of 8% is enough to cause hurt and we’ll see riders dropping off here. The final climb is nothing in comparison, it’s all about 7, 8 and 9.
With 12km still to ride, some riders will think about marking attacks and riding defensively. This is not a wise move as the peloton will be small and unlikely to bring back a late break. The most likely scenario is a small group of riders will go clear and not come back.
That means, you need to have a sprint to win the stage, at least it would help! After the terrible weather today, some riders will be delighted to hear that more is forecast and cooler temperatures too. That is brilliant news for the Belgians!
BMC made a mess of it today. I’m not sure how they let Kelderman and Wellens escape, but they did. They will be getting a massive kick up the arse and will come back fighting. GVA now sits 26 seconds off the lead, but Wellens has moved ahead of him. What a great move by Lotto and what about Greipel? That ride was incredible. It’s all over to BMC.
They need to put Kelderman under pressure and having 3 riders high on GC, they can attack, attack, attack. I expect a crazy race full of massive moments. How Jumbo react, under pressure, will be interesting to watch. They are not used to being in this position but could get help from Lotto. Wellens could do with some more time before Geraardsbergen.
What about Etixx? Terpstra went on the attack today, as expected. After it failed, I thought he would have sat up and deliberately lost a lot of time. He didn’t do this, so won’t have a lot of freedom. They still have Alaphilippe and Lampaert sitting just under 1 minute down. They have options but I don’t think their riders are suited to this stage. Their best hope might be a long range attack.
Some riders love the bad weather, Tiesj Benoot is one of them. This could be his chance to win his first pro race, but team tactics might dictate otherwise. He can certainly cope with the profile and has a fast finish. Lars Boom is another who likes bad weather. The GC might come down to him v GVA. He currently leads by 6 seconds but is a slower sprinter. Boom needs some more time. He does like poor conditions and has a fairly strong team to support.
Prediction Time
This is going to be a very selective stage. The profile and weather will make this a battle of the strongest. BMC still have an advantage but they need to ride with some more brains. GVA is their best bet, but they need to commit to him and stop trying to support Gilbert.
The break has a good chance, with plenty of riders far down on GC. Dangerous riders are Spilak, Ulissi, Theuns, De Vreese, Westra and Amador. Their success depends on the peloton and the attitude of BMC and Etixx.
The course certainly is one for a strong rider, who can climb well and sprint. The problem is that’s around 10 riders here! The bad weather makes me think that Tiesj Benoot is ready to win his first race. Go Tiesj!
David Hunter
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