Euro Road Race 2020 Preview

By David Hunter

Plouay – Plouay 178.5km

The riders have to tackle 12 laps of the circuit used in today’s race in Plouay, which means it’s the new circuit and not the “classic” route.

180km in length and under 2800m of climbing doesn’t sound like a hard race to me. I look at the route and I just get a feeling of disappointment. This should be one for the sprinters, but can anyone make it tough enough for a small group to escape?

The Climbs

First up is Leźot, which is around 1km at 5.2%. This is not hard.

Then we have 1.5km at 4.3%. This is not hard. Last time up this climb crests with under 2km to go, it is possible for a late attack to stick and an escapee to spoil the sprinters party.

Weather

Cloudy sunshine and around 21 degrees.

Tactics

The countries with the strength in depth are Belgium and Italy. Belgium have Stuyven, Meurisse, Naesen, Vanmarcke and Van Avermaet as their main men. This is a team built to race hard, but they do have Philipsen to cover the sprint. They will be the team who try and make things tough, but can they snap the elastic? Italy have a squad of sprinters; it will be interesting to see how they combine during the race. France, Spain and the Netherlands also have eight men, but they lack depth to me. France will be all in for Démare, Netherlands will want Van Der Poel to escape and Spain will just be happy to be there. GB almost field an under 23 squad, Germany look all in for Ackermann as do Norway for Kristoff.

There is no doubt that Belgium have the strongest squad, by some margin. As the climbs are on the easy side, they will have to ride at a crazy speed to put the fast men into difficulty. Given the quality of their attackers, it is possible for them to do so, but given the race is only 180km their odds don’t look good.

This is a route that should favour the sprinters at the race, that’s why all the big nations have arrived with a sprint option. Most squads will be happy to cover the moves and set up a big finish for their fast man. One issue could be the narrowness of the roads, most of the circuit is narrow and that is good news for those who want to attack.

Contenders

Arnaud Démare – riding as well as I can remember just now. He was tremendous in Wallonie and backed that up with a sensational effort to win the French road race. France will go all in to set up a sprint, but their team looks a little weak to me. If Belgium make the whole race hard, Démare could be a lonely man in the closing kilometres, but that might not matter considering his current form.

Giacomo Nizzolo – another rider enjoying one of his best ever seasons. After a long time being the nearly man, Nizzolo is now converting chances into victories. Italy have a bit of a weird team here, for me it lacks riders familiar with being a domestique. I wonder if he’ll be confident of having the speed to win a mass sprint, if not, Italy must help in making it a hard race.

Jasper Philipsen – the Belgium sprint option. Given the calibre of sprinters here, I’m not sure he can win.

Pascal Ackermann – some alarm bells have recently been ringing, after he failed to win a stage in Poland and lost the German road race to a relatively unknown sprinter. It’s not often we see Ackermann struggling for form, but he certainly seems to be going through a tough spell just now. He’ll be supported by most of his normal Bora teammates, and I think they’ll be very happy for a big sprint. If you forget about form for a minute, he’s the fastest rider here, but should we forget form?

Alexander Kristoff – don’t think the race is long enough, or selective enough, for him to win.

Mathieu Van Der Poel – come on big man, light it up! After winning the Dutch title, you can bet he’s looking forward to this one. He does have the option of waiting for the sprint, but I really hope we see him at his attacking best. He is the rider who can flip this race on its head and ruin the hopes of the fast men. Fingers crossed he’s in the mood.

Ivan Garcia – fast, but not fast enough to beat the above sprinters. If Spain want to win this title, they need to get Garcia in a small group and let him take care of business. His form is good, he really impressed me in the Spanish road race. The Bahrain rider is one who seems to have a huge amount of potential, I also like his attacking style of racing. We’ll have to see how riding 250km today will impact his legs.

Diego Ulissi – shown some decent form recently, and even tried attacking in the Italian road race. No doubt he needed to visit the doctor after such a funny turn, I wonder if he’ll be back to normal in this race. He gives Italy a good option if the race breaks up.

Belgium – they do have some great options in Stuyven, Naesen and Van Avermaet. Belgium need to make it hard and hope that a few other countries also want to get involved. One problem will be Van Der Poel, do they have someone who can beat him? The big thing for Belgium will be to break the race up early and get multiple riders in the front group. They can then put pressure on Van Der Poel and hope to break him, but that won’t be easy in a race of 180km.

Prediction Time

The problem for the sprinters is the distance from the last climb to the finishing line. Yes, it isn’t overly steep, but just you try to follow Van Der Poel when he attacks it. For that reason I think the new European champion will be Mathieu Van Der Poel.

David Hunter

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