European Championships 2018 – Road Race Preview

By David Hunter

Glasgow – Glasgow 235km

Got to love a race in the city where you were born. Not only that, but the route cuts right past where I went to university. You could say this is my home race.

The profile supplied by the organisers is a bit misleading, I preview this one made by Lasterketa Bura.

The 15km circuit features three main climbs, all of which are very short. This is a day full of short climbs, fast descents and lots of corners. It’s a circuit made for proper bike racers.

Distance

This is the main obstacle for the riders. At this time of the season, any race of 235km is going to be very selective. The climbs are not particularly hard, but they will feel like Ventoux in the last lap! If some teams want the race to be completed at a fast pace, we will have a huge amount of DNFs and a very tough day in the saddle.

Weather

In classic Glasgow fashion, we will have rain for the majority of the day. The rain is predicted to be light, but if we get some heavy spells, the race will become even harder.

Tactics 

As we witnessed in the womens race, there are no race radios allowed in this competition. This led the Dutch to ride like they had no brains, chasing down a break with two of their own riders. Racing without radios is a nice touch by the organisers, it forces teams into using their brains.

The “road captain” will be worth their weight in gold. This is usually a rider with a huge amount of experience, who can also read the race.

The main tactical battle is between the countries with the most riders. The presence of Sagan looms large, the big countries will want to ride him out of the race, especially as his squad looks weak. This could well see a large break get away early in the race and never come back.

Contenders

Greg Van Avermaet – after a brilliant Tour de France, GVA got close to the best possible result in San Sebastián, finishing in 4th. It seems he has managed to maintain his good form and arrives in Glasgow as one of the men to beat. Belgium have the strongest team, but how will they ride the race? The punchy climbs are perfect for Van Avermaet, but that man Sagan will still be there. We know that it will be hard for Greg to beat Sagan in a sprint, although not impossible, but I doubt the Belgians will ride for this. It could free him up for an earlier attack, but Sagan could decide to mark him for the full race.

Peter Sagan – ended the Tour in a bad way, due to a crash which stopped him from competing in the last two sprints. He’s had time to recover and should be fresh for this race. His country have never been strong, but this squad seems weaker than the one they take to the World Championships. Sagan will be outnumbered by a number of countries, making this a very difficult race for him to win. If he attacks early, the other teams will have numbers to bring his move back. If he leaves it too late, the other countries will have men up the road and Sagan won’t have any domestiques left. Sagan is in an impossible position.

Magnus Cort – his brilliant win in the Tour de France was a huge moment in his career. Cort is one of those riders who have made significant progress in the last two years and he’s now earned his right to sit at the top table of cycling. Denmark have a big squad in the race, but lack some quality. Cort has a very fast sprint, something his rivals will be very aware of. There is no way they want to arrive at the end of the race with him in the group. That could make life difficult for him, but if Denmark get their tactics right, he could have a big chance of a medal.

John Degenkolb – most cycling fans where very happy to see him win the Roubaix stage in the Tour. It’s been a long road to recovery for the German after his horror training crash back at the beginning of 2016. Andre Greipel was due to be the leader for the German team, but he’s decided he wants to do other races instead of this one. I think the route could be too hard for Degenkolb.

Owain Doull – the GB squad have the added pressure of being the home team, something they seemed to embrace in the womens race. They arrive without Cavendish as the captain, but given his recent form, he wasn’t a realistic candidate for the win. Instead, I see them turning to one of their “lesser” riders and Doull would be a good option. The Sky rider was close to winning the national title and he seems to be developing well this season. A GB win would be a big surprise given the quality of their rivals.

Dan Martin – performed well in the Tour, but looked tired in San Sebastián. It will be interesting to see how Ireland approach the race, but Martin would prefer a harder route. He will hope to escape with a strong break, but a medal will be hard to win.

Sonny Colbrelli – Italy have a number of options for this race, but I think Colbrelli is the best of these. 2018 has been another good year for the Italian, taking wins on the Hatta Dam and Tour de Suisse, before going very close to beating Sagan in La-Roche-sur-Yon and Quimper. He is very strong on punchy climbs and will hope that his team ride with their brains. The best chance for Italy to win the race is getting Colbrelli away in a strong break and letting him take his chance from a reduced sprint.

Mathieu Van Der Pol – at 23 years of age, the cyclocross mega star is looking more and more like a road cyclist. After surprising many to win the Dutch national title, he arrives in Glasgow as one of the men to beat. His abilities on the road are still not fully known, I’m sure the big favourites in this race will be a little scared of him. The Dutch have a strong squad to support their leader, but his success will depend on getting their tactics right. I think he starts as the dark horse.

Another Belgian – so, the Belgians have the strongest squad in the race. There is every chance of the big stars marking each other out of the race, which will allow one of the non-captains the chance of winning the race. Looking at their squad, Van Aert and Stuyven are the strongest riders behind Van Avermaet. Van Aert is fresh from winning the Tour of Denmark and Stuyven was very close to a huge win in the Mendy stage of the Tour. Both of these riders are strong enough to win the race and give the Belgian team a massive tactical advantage.

Prediction Time

I think we’ll see a very tactical race and the Belgians will ride Sagan out of contention. They are the strongest team and I think they’ll take the gold medal, but which of their riders will it be? I’ll go with Jasper Stuyven winning from a small group.

David Hunter

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