Flèche Wallonne 2020 – Preview
By David Hunter
Herve > Huy 202km
The races continue to come thick and fast.
It’s downright weird seeing Flèche appear at this time of the year, I wonder if it will change the usual race we get.
Route
There’s been a change to the lap circuit, one that makes things a little easier. Out goes Cherave and in comes Gueuses, which is 1.7km at 6.2%, compared to 1.7km at 6.6%. Not a massive change, but slightly easier. This race is still all about one climb, the Mur de Huy.
Such a beauty! We’ve all seen this climb many times; I don’t need to say anything else.
Weather
There could well be some rain in the afternoon. The wind is coming from the south, meaning headwind on the Mur. Some of the route is exposed, but I don’t think we’ll see major splits.
Tactics
Each year some riders try to stop the inevitable, but they fail. Despite opportunities to ride in a different way, it always comes down to the final time up the Mur. As this race comes just after the Tour and Worlds, there is a chance for something different to happen.
Looking at the squads, no one sticks out as having a super strong team. Without the usual contenders there is a lot of unknowns about the final ascent of the Mur. Without Alaphilippe, Valverde and Fuglsang we are without the riders we would normally consider the favourites. That means quite a few riders will fancy their chances of waiting for the final climb and taking the win. On the other hand, which team wants to take control of the race and kill off the late attacks? If there was ever a year a late attack wins, then this is it.
Contenders
Tadej Pogačar – when will this kid get tired? After winning the yellow jersey, he still had enough in the tank to attack on Sunday. As he is already confirmed to ride Liège and Flanders, I do wonder how he’ll manage his effort in this race. Remember, Flèche is important, but it’s not a monument. Will we see Pogačar back in a domestique role? If he is down to his last few matches, surely he prioritises the monuments.
Marc Hirschi – another rider who must be close to exhaustion. Brilliant in France and still had enough in the tank to finish third on Sunday. Hirschi is currently enjoying a wonderful fun of form, but it must come to an end at some point. Importantly, Hirschi will also be riding Liège on Sunday, which is a concern in terms of how much energy he’ll have left, but I’m sure the team know what they’re doing. When we reach the Mur, he has the kick required to win.
Michael Woods – I was a bit uncomplimentary about the Canadian in my world championships preview, but I stand by what I said. Woods isn’t good enough to win the rainbow jersey, but he’s still a strong cyclist. In fact, he’s good enough to win this race. The finish on the Mur is ideal for Woods, it really does play to his strengths. One slight issue will be his positioning as we approach the foot of the climb, but if he starts near the front he’ll finish on the podium.
Benoît Cosnefroy – he enjoyed a good Tour de France, but this is much more his style of race. He was 12th here last year, but he is a much better cyclist now. The French climber has the punch required to challenge for the win, he is much better on this type of hill compared to longer ones. This year has already been a huge success for him, he’ll arrive at this race full of confidence.
Dylan Teuns – his form since the restart has been awful, but now back on home roads he should have the extra motivation required to up his game. This finish is wonderful for him, it certainly suits the puncheurs more than the climbers. Bahrain have a strong team, but Landa is unlikely to win on the Mur, hopefully Teuns can pull one out the bag.
Michal Kwiatkowski – looked very impressive on Sunday, and this is a race that suits him. He was 3rd way back in 2014, and looked good last year but faded in the closing metres. Kwiato looks to be back at the top of his game, which is something I’ve been looking forward to for a while. I think he’ll wait for the final climb and see what happens.
Tom Dumoulin – after an impressive performance on Sunday, he should arrive with confidence in his legs. I always thought he would leave the Tour in good condition; his body was in need of a solid work out after so long without racing. Winning this race will be complicated, he doesn’t quite have the punch required on the Mur, so I hope he tries a long one.
Rudy Molard – a solid top 10 option for FDJ.
Dan Martin – all about his positioning on the Mur. On far too many occasions he’s lost out when the elbows have started to fly. Martin has what it takes to win, especially with Alaphilippe and co not here. ISUN didn’t let him ride on Sunday, a big indication they want him to be fresh for this race. He used the Tour to get back to fitness, but I’m not sure if he’s quite there yet.
Tim Wellens – he’s tried going long, he’s tried waiting for the final climb, but the win still evades him. He was good in Luxembourg, but not at his best. That theme continued on Sunday, but that effort should have been good for him as he tries to get back to 100%. This represents a big chance for him, but I’m not sure he’s at his best level yet.
Andrea Bagioli – he might be 21, but this is his type of race. With all eyes on the bigger name riders, he has the ability to fly under the radar and surprise. Don’t be shocked to see him finish on the podium.
Jelle Vanendert – his World Cup final! He’s always there or there abouts, but without really challenging for the win. Given the omission of some of the big favourites, this is his best chance of upsetting the odds and taking a surprise win.
Prediction Time
This is tough to predict. If it all comes down to the final climb it should be a straight fight between Hirschi and Woods. Given his current form, I think I’ll go with Marc Hirschi to continue his winning ways.
David Hunter
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This is just ridiculously good!