Giro d’Italia 2015 – Stage 7 Preview
By David Hunter
Grosseto – Fiuggi 264km
This is the longest stage of the 2015 Giro and it’s a monster. Immediately, you can’t help but draw comparisons with Milan – Sanremo. The length is close enough but the profile is not as demanding, as there is no Cipressa or Poggio. This is a nice ride in the country, until the very end.
The race really begins with 11km remaining, it could be a bit boring before that. We have 3km at 4.4%, which will be taken at high speed. Then a descent, before the final 2km. As you can see the gradient goes 1.4%, 1.2%, 2.8%, before the final 500m at 4%. It doesn’t sound much, but after 6 hours in the saddle, this is going to really hurt.
The length of the stage will be too much for some of the sprinters. When they get to the end, they simply won’t have any legs to sprint. You need to look at races like MSR, to see who could possibly contend for the stage.
I’ll start with the daddy of the race, Alessandro Pettachi. If ever there was a stage for him, it’s this one. He showed in stage 2, that he can still sprint against the youngsters and despite being 41 years old, he is in with a great chance. AleJet is a master of the uphill sprint. A former winner of MSR, he knows how to sprint after a long race. It would be amazing to see him take his 23rd stage win in the race and Italy would go into melt down! Southeast are a team full of fast men, so positioning him will not be a problem. A podium finish is a big possibility for him.
Next up is Orica and they have two options: Gerrans and Matthews. Both riders have a great chance of success here. Gerrans won MSR in 2012 and Matthews was 3rd in 2015. The final 4% ramp is ideal for both and I’m unsure who they’ll turn to. Matthews already has a stage and a pink jersey, Gerrans has also worn pink but has worked for others. Gerro is the leader of the squad and I think he’ll get the nod. They have a brilliant line up and will control the end of the race. That will put both riders into ideal positions and without many challengers. Either rider would be the big favourite for the race.
Movistar have not enjoyed the best of starts. In particular, JJ Lobato, is having a stinker. In fact, since Andalucía, he hasn’t been having the best of times. The Spaniard started the season in sensational form, with wins in the TDU and Andalucía, since then he hasn’t been enjoying himself. He was dropped in MSR and hasn’t finished in the top 100, in the Giro, so far. That being said, this finish is perfect for him. Lobato is the master of the uphill sprint. He posses so much power, that very few can cope with his attack. However, it is very difficult to reverse your form. Can he do it?
Another big fan of an uphill sprint is Sacha Modolo. The Italian took his first win of 2015, in the Tour of Turkey. That stage ended with a very challenging sprint and he loves that type of finish. The distance isn’t a problem, and his positioning is also very good. Modolo has a great chance of taking his first ever win in the Giro. If he wants to move into the elite group of sprinters, he has to win in a grand tour.
Talking of Italian sprinters, we also have Nizzolo and Viviani. I have some doubts about how they will cope with the distance, but if they are okay both riders possess a good uphill sprint. Viviani already has a stage and both seem to be the main contenders for the red jersey. The battle between them, seems set to rumble all the way to Milan.
Luca Mezgec is another with a big chance but similar to Viviani and Nizzolo, I’m not sure how he’ll cope with the distance. You need to learn how to deal with these stages. The same goes for Moreno Hofland. He was unlucky on stage 2, but the distance is really going to make it hard for him to repeat that performance.
The nature of the finish opens the door to non-sprinters. This finish will interest Gilbert, Colbrelli, Bole, Boonen and Slagter. Of these riders, Gilbert looks like the bets option. He was 3rd on stage 3 and seems to be in good form. BMC need to make the final climb as hard as possible, to soften the legs of the sprinters, if Gilbert is to have a chance. The distance isn’t a problem for the former world champion.
Other options for the top 10 are: Gatto, Montaguti, Reza, and Porsev.
That leaves me left with Andre Greipel. He doesn’t have a great record in long races. He has finished 2nd, twice, in the Vattenfall Classic, a race over 245km. He quite likes an uphill finish, but got his timing wrong in stage 2. What Greipel does possess is confidence. This is a valuable commodity for an rider, especially a sprinter. His team were brilliant today, a textbook performance. The climb isn’t hard enough to distance Andre, so he’ll be there for the finish. He needs to time his attack correctly, not like on stage 2. It will be difficult to get the same type of lead out, as the end of the stage doesn’t really lend itself to that.
A headwind is predicted for the stage, making it hard for any breakaway.
Prediction Time
In my eyes, most teams will want a sprint and I think we’ll get one. The riders enjoyed a relaxed day in the bunch and I think we’ll get another one.
The finish is fairly technical and it’s very important to be at the front, with 500m to go. That means Orica are in pole position. They look the strongest, but who will they go for? I don’t think it’s hard enough for Gilbert to win, and I expect to see a flying JJ Lobato. I was impressed by his sprint today. He was way back and not a threat for the stage, but it was good to see him opening the legs up again. His uphill sprint is frightening! I expect Greipel, Viviani, Nizzolo and Hofland to all be there but Lobato will be too much for everyone. The Spaniard takes it.
David Hunter
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