Giro d´Italia 2021 – Stage 18 Preview

By David Hunter

Rovereto > Stradella 231.6km

The return of the ridiculously long stage in the final week.

The riders ensured a similar stage didn’t happen in 2020, but they’ve no chance this year. I still don’t understand the need to have a 232km at this point of the race, but I’m not an organiser.

Weather

Looks like another cracking day.

Tactics

Sagan is in control of the sprint jersey, there is no need for Bora – hansgrohe to chase. Yes, he could win another stage, but it also brings Gaviria into the mix. You might look at the end of the stage and think it doesn’t look that hard, well I can tell you it is.

The final 35km features four climbs, four descents and very narrow roads. It will be very difficult for any team to control this for a sprint. Some teams might chase the break and bring it all back together, but that just opens things up for late attacks. The narrowness of the roads means that organising a chase will be almost impossible.

The climbs aren’t overly difficult: 3.8km at 3.6%, 5.1km at 3.9%, 1.5km at 6.8% and 2.4km at 5.6%. The final little lump crests with just 5km to go. Gaps can be created on the climbs, especially the third one, but gaps can also be created on the descents. The roads are typical of the Lombardy region, fast and not in great condition. After looking at the profile my initial thought was that we could get a sprint, now that I’ve looked in more detail, I don’t think the sprinters will stand a chance.

Some sprint teams might still want to chase, at least they have some chance of making it happen, unlike the rest of the Giro. Chasing down the morning break will depend on how many men get up the road. If the break has 10 riders, I don’t think they’ll be seen again. We are at the end of a very demanding Giro, the domestiques are tired. Instead of looking to chase, I’d want my men in the break.

DS Cycling Mole

Smokin Jo, that was brilliant today. I knew you were always our man for GC! This stage is a great one for the break, I want everyone up the road. TGV and The Prof, you two are our top men for this stage, but it’s really important we have multiple riders in the front group. The final 30km is tricky, perfect for The TGV to blast off the front. Come on boys, let me drink champagne.

Contenders

Deceuninck – Quick Step – still without a stage win, not what the team would have expected at the start of the race. All the boys will have license to try and jump in the break, apart from Almeida. Cavagna seems the obvious choice, but every single one of them has the class to win this type of stage. No doubt they’ll make the break and will challenge for the win.

Quinten Hermans – it’s his first grand tour so he might be starting to get tired, but he impressed on Sunday. He has the punch required for the climbs and packs a good sprint too.

Nikias Arndt – if the world championships fell in the middle of a grand tour, I reckon he’d be the world champion. The German is a solid rider, but during a grand tour he’s a world beater. He has a good record of getting into winning moves, and boy can he finish them off. He was unlucky on Sunday, but this represents another big chance for him.

Peter Sagan – could well roll the dice and try for the break.

Dries De Bondt – another rider who looked good on Sunday, in fact he also impressed in the Strade Bianche stage too. He’s also riding his first grand tour, we’ll have to see if he’s got anything in the tank.

Matteo Fabbro – the final 35km is perfect for him. He goes well on short climbs and has been close to netting his first big win. The start isn’t ideal for him to get in the move, but Bora have a few big engines who could help.

Alberto Bettiol – I’ve mentioned him as a contender for many stages, but he’s yet to get in the break. The Italian has enjoyed a good race, he’s provided valuable support for Hugh Carthy in all types of stages. On paper this is a perfect stage for him but making the break won’t be easy.

Matteo Jorgenson – Movistar have been good at getting into breaks, I hope the young American has something left in the tank. He goes well on punchy climbs; he’ll hope to get in the break and see if he can challenge for the win.

Gianluca Brambilla – today was a bad day for Trek, Ciccone suffered an unfortunate serious of events and finds himself way down in the GC battle. Not only that, but the team lost ground in the team classification fight. It means they must make this break, and with multiple riders. Brambilla looks a good option, he’ll like the look of the final 30km.

Diego Ulissi – 4th place today was one of the biggest surprises in the whole race. We all know that he started the race below his usual level due to heart trouble during the winter. Today shows that he’s managed to use the race to grow his form, we should see lots of him during the remainder of the race. The finish of this stage is good for him, but he’s not always the best at getting in a break. If he makes the move, he should win the stage.

Pippo Ganna – it’s very unlikely, but Ineos might just let one of their domestiques have a little bit of freedom in this stage. They did it today with Moscon, but with Bernal losing time I think they’ll want to keep all their riders in the bunch.

Prediction Time

We’re not getting a sprint, but we’ll have to see if the stage is won by the early break or a late attack. If I had to pick one, I’d go with the early break, I think it should be full of strong riders. Given his performance today I’ll take a win for Diego Ulissi.

David Hunter

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