La Vuelta 2015 – Stage 19 Preview

By David Hunter

Medina del Campo – Avila 185.8km

This stage marks the last chance for the puncheurs to take a stage.

There might only be two categorised climbs, but this day is mainly uphill. It’s a hard stage, with a kick in the tail. We’ve been to Avila before and the race ends with a cobbled climb, beside the walls of the town. It’s a beautiful finish, but the riders won’t be looking at the view!

The cat 2 climb is 7.5km at 4.8%. Aru tried to distance Dumoulin today and couldn’t. This climb is easier, I think he’ll save his energy. The riders then descend into town, before the cobbled climb.

The climb is 1.1km at 4.7%, but it does have a short 9% section. The cobbles makes this a hard climb and it’s a great addition to the race. The race has finished here before with Phil Deignan and Nicki Sorensen taking wins in the last 10 years.

The most memorable time the race finished here was in 1999. The late, great, Frank Vandenbroucke took a fabulous win. He exploded on the cobbles and distanced the rest of the GC favourites. It was his 2nd win of the race and some of you will remember it well.

This is a great finish for Tom Dumoulin and bad for Fabio Aru. The Dutchman, is at home on the cobbles and loves a power climb. He is more than capable of distancing Aru, who won’t enjoy the surface or gradient. Astana must be concerned and I can’t see them trying to keep the race together. The prospect of Dumoulin taking bonus seconds must loom large. It would make a lot of sense for Giant to try and control the break. This really is a great finish for Dumoulin. He will be one of the fastest riders, probably second to Valverde. If he can take 10 seconds from Aru and then some bonus seconds, he will have taken a huge step towards the red jersey. He did look strong today, but Saturday is a hard stage. He needs more time!

This stage does offer Valverde a big chance of taking his 10th Vuelta victory. It’s not the hardest day to control and they will be willing to help Giant. Both he and Quintana have made a great recovery and he would love another stage victory. Movistar now lead the team classification and stopping the break will secure a big advantage for them. It makes sense for them to work but cycling doesn’t always make sense!

If Movistar and Giant let the break go, no one else will chase. Well, Astana might, but that would be a crazy decision. Yet again, it’s a good day for the break. The constant climbing usually helps the break build a big lead, and they will be looking to earn the 7th breakaway success of the race. It’s been a great race for the breakers. The winners of the breakaway lottery have been Lindeman, Landa, Oliveira, De Marchi, Schleck and Roche. With 4 cat 1 climbs on Saturday, this is the last chance for those that don’t like big climbs.

The riders I’m about to mention, are very similar to previous stages. In fact, I’ve been banging on about them all race long!

Adam Hansen – Was super strong today, but was ordered to work for De Clercq. Let’s just say he wasn’t best pleased. I have spoken to him tonight and he had a simple message, “Tomorrow, I’m in the break.” It would be fitting for him to win a stage and break the consecutive GTs record.

Jose Goncalves – Ridiculously strong, all race long. Was an unlucky 3rd today, expect him to roll the dice again tomorrow.

Geraint Thomas – Cobbled uphill finish. I mean, come on!

Mikael Cherel – Really strong French rider. Great Tour and has looked active in this race.

Maxime Bouet – Etixx will again make the break. If in it, he’s a massive danger.

Sylvain Chavanel – Another who’ll love the climb to Avila.

Ruben Plaza – Wonder Tour, and looked good here, albeit, in patches. Strong TT indicates he’s still got the legs.

Simon Gerrans – Needs to test his form, although, if he senses the GC teams will ride, he’ll wait in the peloton.

Cyril Gautier – Got in the break today and then sat up. He’ll have already been thinking about tomorrow!

Daniele Bennati – Another who made the break today. Such a strong rider and great on an uphill drag. You might be surprised to see his name but he has a big chance.

Prediction Time

Yet again, it depends on the attitude of the peloton. The stage looks great for the break and I think they’ll make it. Got to stick with Adam Hansen! Back in the bunch, Dumoulin will take a couple of seconds on Aru.

David Hunter

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