Paris-Nice 2022 – Stage 2 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It would not sound real if someone had told everyone before today, the opening stage of Paris-Nice has been won by Christophe Laporte after Jumbo-Visma played with the competition and took a 1-2-3 in Mantes-la-Ville, after attacking on the final climb of the day and setting off on their own. Laporte, van Aert and Roglic have taken 22 seconds on the peloton and besides taking an incredible win, now they find themselves aswell already putting serious pressure in the GC.

Positive: Jumbo, no-one else can be even compared to what they did today.

Negative: To be honest no-one, didn’t seem like anyone was even close to answering the team attack.

The Route

The second day of racing is one more properly for the sprinters. Although the wind may play a role as it sometimes does in the opening stages of the race, a sprint is always to be expected and in this stage the finale will be at Orléans, with no climbs to bother the fast men at the finale.

Technically it will not be the easiest, but it’s not an overly hard finale. There should be a very fast run-up to the final kilometer in anticipation of that combination of corners that will stretch out the peloton. The final straight is 500 meters long and should see a regular pure sprint.

The Weather

Cold temperatures and echelons! They are sure to happen, today they were almost happening with much less favourable conditions. Tomorrow there will be moderate wind from the east all day long through the flat plains. Tension will be sky high, and it is inevitable that the race will break up at some point, everyday will be important for the GC here.

The Favourites

Fabio Jakobsen – Besides Mauri Vansevenant, the whole team should be good for the crosswinds. I think the question is on how Jakobsen will do, he’s a brilliant sprinter but little more, if it gets very hard I don’t expect him to have much left in the tank by the end.

Jasper Philipsen – Like Quick-Step, it’s all about their sprinter. Philipsen is more complete, and is as strong of a bet as Jakobsen.

Mads Pedersen – In his best day Pedersen can do really well, he like the rough flat days and if he finds himself in the right position at the right time he can do quite well.

Sam Bennett – BORA are down a rider and have Aleksandr Vlasov to protect which will make it hard for the team to balance it out, but who knows, as I’ve mentioned it’s about being in the right place at the right time and on paper team support won’t be as important towards the end if it’s a small group.

Wout van Aert – There’s no question about it, Jumbo are here for business and they will likely have no issue if crosswinds appear, they are surely going to be one of the active teams. Laporte and Teunissen can both go for a stage win, although I believe they will be in more supporting roles. 

Dylan Groenewegen – Personally I don’t think BikeExchange will have a good time if crosswinds happen. With Yates to protect and a Groenewegen which isn’t particularly known for this long-distance efforts, things can turn ugly, and tomorrow will be the only stage where the Dutchman has a realistic chance of taking a win.

The race will be heavily marked by the winds, surely. Most of these riders are used to that though, and to be honest if splits do happen it will depend on luck aswell which may mean some strong riders may be caught out, whilst others who are not so good may end up in front if they get there at the right time. Nevertheless, a sprint is almost inevitable as the stage is pan-flat, so there are some more sprinters who must be included in the contenders list.

Juan Sebastián Molano, Bryan Coquard, Sonny Colbrelli, NIccolò Bonifazio, Amaury Capiot, Ethan Hayter, Biniam Ghirmay, Cees Bol and Ivan Cortina are all realistically candidates for the day. Some will not likely have good support or enjoy their time in the wind, others will be hampered as teams should focus more on their GC leaders, however they do stand their chances.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#14 Rubén Fernandez – It’s not exactly a great day for you, but hey we have Bryan who can go for the stage, Guillaume and Ion for the GC so we have to protect them. You will protect our GC guys, they are the priority here and so you have to stay near the front with them, and just not be shy to spend that little extra hitting the wind because everything can blow up incredibly quick and we must be in front.

#137 Albert Torres – We don’t really have someone for the GC but hey take charge of Ivan. You’re a good rouleur Albert so you two stay near the front, I don’t think we have many chances to win today so not all guys will be spending energy, but Ivan can do something if the race breaks up in the wind.

#94 Dorian Godon – We can do something Dorian! Ben isn’t exactly an expert on the crosswinds so priority is to protect him, but we do not need to be defensive. With Oli and Stan with us aswell, and yourself, we have a true engine room and can break the race up! Don’t be shy, exiting the towns always make sure the guys are in front, we can detonate the race if the situation is right and find some alliances.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Jakobsen, Philipsen, WV.Aert

⭐⭐M.Pedersen, S.Bennett, Groenewegen

⭐Laporte, Molano, Coquard, Bonifazio, Capiot, Ghirmay, Bol, Cortina

Jasper Philipsen has proved to excel in crosswinds. Alpecin will only focus in him, the Belgian is a strong sprinter and should fare well if things get hard, he’s my pick for tomorrow.

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Tomorrow’s race has prizes of at least €150 and an entry fee of only €2.5. Make good use of your knowledge!

Rúben Silva

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