Paris-Nice 2022 – Stage 6 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was a day for the breakaway as expected and our pick Brandon McNulty also performed as expected. It was an easy win, after getting himself in the escapee group early in the day, Jumbo-Visma let the group go, and McNulty attacked at the base of the Col de la Mure to get a gap and keep it confortably until the finish. Franck Bonnamour finished second with Matteo Jorgenson third. The peloton arrived 5:43 later, there were some attacks on the final hilltop but as expected it was not a hard enough ascent to make differences, with the favourites arriving together and Roglic taking the yellow jersey as Wout van Aert took it easy and lost time. 

Positive: McNulty taking another quality win this year. 

Negative: Over 20 riders abandoned today, most of them did not take to the start. Although planned likely, Wout van Aert leaving the GC when leading the race. 

The Route 

A breakaway day? That’s the first hunch seeing this profile, with it’s hilly features that will dissuade most sprinters into ambitioning a win, but lack of any hard climb where the GC men can make differences. 

It’s a hilly day into Provence, the climbing starts early on with the Col de Murs (10.4Km at 4.3%) and that should be the ideal spot for a group to form, the fight is surely going to be big! 

Throughout the day the riders will face four more categorized climbs, the last one of them being the hardest one. The Col de l’Espigoulier is no unknown in the peloton, it summits with 29 kilometers to go and has 11 kilometers at 4.5% average gradient, with it’s first half being above that. A rough climb, but not for those who eat mountains for breakfast. 

A very technical descent will follow and leave the riders in the final 15 kilometers. The last 10 feature a hilltop of 1.2Km at 6.5% with an intermediate sprint at the top, with just 9 kilometers to go. If a peloton happens to make it this far within a shot of the win, attacks will fly off the front of the group no doubt. If a breakaway is set for the win this may provide the last opportunity to drop rivals based on power. The kilometers following are either descent or flat into the finish. 

The Weather 

Strong wind from the southeast. It is a day for the breakaway, but the conditions will not be favourable throughout most of the day. In the final two ascents of the day, it’s quite possible that the wind will be sheltered, however generally it should also come as a headwind. 

Breakaway chances: 75% 

This is a breakaway day on paper. Too hard for most sprinters, too easy for GC attacks, a hard start and sandwiched between two mountain stages. On a normal day I would not even doubt, however the wind will be very unfavourable for a breakaway, if the peloton commits to chasing it should not be hard to control a group. 

Additionally, you have the likes of Wout van Aert and Bryan Coquard for example who are well suited for such a stage and could ambition a win if the escapees are under control. 

The Favourites 

AG2R – With Ben O’Connor gone I have been thinking of them quite a lot and with good reason. With the classics at the doorstep their classics block has to be carrying good form, they have a strong team and several cards to play with Oliver Naesen, Stan Dewulf and Dorian Godon all riders suited for such a stage. 

INEOS – What their ambitions will be may change the scenery, as they may just want to stay safe In the peloton and race conservatively. They have strong cards, Dylan van Baarle has climbs perfectly suited to his style, whilst Ethan Hayter would on paper be a main candidate for such a day in any scenario. Hayter has been riding a very confusing season to me, always separated from the team despite apparently having good form, he may want to go for a breakaway and would be hard to beat in that case. 

Movistar – Gregor Muhlberger looked quite good today and will be the team’s option if a breakaway would be decided on the climbing. The Spanish team have the cards and freedom to go for this one, having Gorka Izagirre and Ivan Cortina as riders who love the bad weather and hilly races, they can also do some damage. 

Wout van Aert – If things come back to a sprint it’s hard to imagine anyone able to beat van Aert, as for that to happen the pace will be hard in the climbs. 

In case a breakaway would eventually be controlled and a late sprint finish could happen, the likes of Bryan Coquard, Biniam Ghirmay, Anthony Turgis and Mads Pedersen can be cards to play aswell. These teams’ behaviour can be decisive in the outcome of the day. 

Chances are for a breakaway though, and besides the names above I would add some more, a day suited to rouleurs, however with the necessity of some climbing legs aswell to win in such a lumpy route. This would include Cofidis’ Simon Geschke, Arkea’s Connor Swift, UAE’s Jan Polanc, Lotto Soudal’s Thomas de Gendt, TotalEnergies’ Mathieu Burgaudeau, and some teams with multiple good cards like Groupama with Quentin Pacher and Kevin Geniets, Trek with Bauke Mollema and Jasper Stuyven, Intermarché with Rein Taaramae and Loic Vliegen, and B&B Hotels with today’s runner-up Franck Bonnamour and Alexis Gougeard. 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#214 Jérémy Lecroq – Franck, Alexis and Luca have good chances here Jérémy, they can take a stage win that would be absolutely fantastic to us. Your priority here is simple, you have to to help them get in a breakaway, either attacking with them in the wheel, or chasing back groups where we’re not present. The more we have in the front group the better, really, so you can give it a shot aswell naturally. 

#35 Matis Louvel – Hand around in the peloton Matis. You can climb, if you go on a breakaway I don’t expect you to resist alongside the climbers but if we’re in luck and someone takes up the charges, you can perhaps ambition a sprint. Amaury has left, let’s see, Nairo is the priority but if things work out you may give it a shot. 

#72 Kevin Geniets – We can try something today Kevin, it’s a good day for you. We’ll hope the wind doesn’t harm the break too much, I expect things to stay compact until the first climb of the day and there you make your move. I think strong climbers will be in the group, you won’t really be able to attack them so race conservatively throughout the day, bluff. On the big climb towards the end the climbers will attack and you have to resist. Your field will be that final hilltop with 8 kilometers to go, it’s sharp and you can perhaps do something. If not, wait for a sprint. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Dewulf, Cortina, Turgis, Pacher 

⭐⭐WV.Aert, Hayter, O.Naesen, De Gendt, Burgaudeau, Stuyven 

⭐Coquard, Ghirmay, M.Pedersen, van Baarle, Mollema, Godon, G.Izagirre, C.Swift, Polanc, Geniets, Bonnamour, Gougeard, Vliegen 

Candidates are aplenty. It’s a very open stage, not easy to predict who will be in the breakaway as it’ll partially come down to luck. I will go with Anthony Turgis, finding himself at the front and going for an escapee win. 

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Rúben Silva

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