Paris-Roubaix 2017 Preview

By David Hunter

Compiegne – Roubaix 257km

After a brutal period of classics racing, we eagerly anticipate an epic edition of the Hell of the North.

This year we have 55km of cobbles, coming in 29 sectors. The ratings are out and the most important sectors of this race will be:-

19 – Trouee d’Arenberg 5 stars

11 – Mons en Pevele 5 stars

5 – Camphin en Pevele 4 stars

4 – Carrefour de l’Arbre 5 stars 

Tactics

This season has almost redifined bike racing as we know it. With teams packed full of strength, we have started to see riders attacking from a long way out. I’m not talking about teams sending satellite riders up the road, we are getting the main contenders attacking with over 50km to go. Some teams have been slow to adjust their own tactics.

QuickStep took this tactic to a new level in Flanders, with Gilbert attacking with an enormous amount of the race left. He might have been caught, but thanks to a jacket, we’ll never know. The Belgian team again have multiple options in the race, they will again try to go long. It will be up to the other teams to decide how they counter this move. The race promises to be a fascinating tactical battle.

Flanders Crash

Apart from Philippe Gilbert, who isn’t racing, the strongest men of the spring have been Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet and Oli Naesen. All three were involved in the big crash in Flanders and we have some sore bodies. Naesen has a swollen knee, but he tells me that there is no pain on the bike. Both he and Sagan tested themselves out in Scheldeprijs, and I hope that the incident in Flanders doesn’t impact this race. If 100%, these three riders will all have a big say in the outcome of the race.

Weather

It will be a very pleasant day, but that will mean a lot of dust on the cobbles.

Contenders

Peter Sagan – considering all that he has won in his career, it seems remarkable that the world champion “only” has one monument to his name, the 2016 Tour of Flanders. He has never really shown in Paris-Roubaix, he’s yet to make the podium. Sagan is clearly a remarkable bike rider and it’s only a matter of time before he gets it right in this race. Tactics wise, his team supported him well in Flanders, it was the crash that stopped him winning. He arrives with a strong team for this race, a lot will be expected of Bodnar and Burghardt.

Greg Van Avermaet – even a crash couldn’t stop his tremendous run of podium finishes this season, in Flanders. He was 3rd here back in 2015 and although not fancied as much as some, he will have lots of confidence as we approach this race. No rider in the world has better form than him in 2017. BMC have a very strong squad to support his ambitions, they look better than most. As we have seen this season, he is not afraid to go long. Such attacking riding has helped him to take some important wins and I think we’ll see him attacking long before the velodrome.

Oli Naesen – the only rider that seems capable of following the moves of Sagan and Van Avermaet. He is still sore after his crash, but was relieved to feel no pain in Scheldeprijs. He was 13th here in 2016 and I fully expect a better result for him this time round. Given his current form, he stands a great chance of making the podium.

Alexander Kristoff – just like Sagan, he’s not finished on the podium here. I find that surprising as I do think this race should suit him more than Flanders, a race he won in 2015. His recent form is quite good, he was brave in Flanders and joined the early move, but didn’t have the legs to follow Gilbert. He was 4th in Sanremo, 5th in Flanders and won a stage in De Panne, not amazing form but still quite good. I still think this race suits him well.

John Degenkolb – of the “younger” riders, the German has the best record here thanks to a 2nd place in 2014 and a win in 2015. He was denied the chance to defend his crown in 2016 and will arrive here with a point to prove. His form in recent races has not been at the top level: 7th in Sanremo, 13th in E3, 5th in GW and 7th in Flanders. He does seem to be lacking the extra 5% required to challenge in these races.

QuickStep – understandably all the talk is about Tom Boonen. The legend is riding in his final race, he’s already won on the cobbles on four occasions. He was so close to a 5th win in 2016, but Matt Hayman denied him in the velodrome. This is the one he would dearly love to win again, but how do his team try to make that happen? He attacked early in 2016, I expect something similar to happen again. Just like in Flanders, his team are very strong. They have Boonen, Stybar and Terpstra, giving them three genuine shots at the title. That is a little weaker than in Flanders, where they also had Gilbert. Their tactics will be fascinating, but this race is very hard to get right. I think Boonen goes early and they save Terpstra till the end.

Ian Stannard – the big Englishman is huge fan of this race. His recent form has been non-existent, but maybe that is because he has been saving himself for Sunday. Although, he might just not have the form. He certainly looks like the best option for Team Sky.

Edvald Boasson Hagen – was going well in Flanders, but then he just blew! This is becoming a bad habit for the Norwegian, after similar performances in the recent big races. Despite going well here in 2016, I have no confidence in his current form.

Arnaud Demare – the great French hope! Like Stannard, I think he has been carefully managing his recent efforts, with one eye on this race. He would so dearly love to become the first French winner here since Frederic Guesdon in 1997. He has an outside chance of success.

Prediction Time

 I don’t believe in fairytales. The trio of Sagan, Van Avermaet and Naesen are the strongest here and if they stay clear of misfortune, I expect them to be fighting it out for the win. The lack of any hills is a disadvantage for GVA, making Peter Sagan, my pick for the win. As everyone knows this is Boonen’s last race, that will make it too difficult to escape the clutches of his rivals.

David Hunter

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