Ruta del Sol 2016 – Stage 3 Preview
By David Hunter
Monachil – Padul 157.9km
After the fun and controversy of today, the sprinters are in for another demanding day.
On the menu is a lot of climbing! The race will really heat up from the 80km point, with a couple of cat 2 climbs. Today’s climb was a cat 3, I wonder what a cat 2 will be like?
Puerto del Legionario is 10.9km at 3.2%, but that includes a very easy start to the climb. The second of the two climbs is much more interesting.
This is what I’m talking about! The first section starts easy with a kilometre at 4%, then we get 11.2%, with 20% sections, before easing to 7.6%. A short descent will allow the riders to catch their breathe, before kilometres at 7% and 6.8%. If that wasn’t enough, we have 600m at 6.3%. This is a wonderful climb that will blow the peloton into a thousand pieces.
From the top, we have 15km to the finishing line. There is a short descent, but not enough to let riders re-join, even if they get pushed up the climb!
Ben Swift might have sprinted poorly but he was the best climber of the sprinters. He made the initial selection, as did Felline and Sanz. They were the only “quick” men to get over with the climbers, JJ Lobato, just caught on. The rest of the sprinters managed to re-join with the second group. Climbers who missed the first selection were Nieve, Pardilla, Kruijswijk, Atapuma, Mollema, Coppel, Frank, Monfort, Fernandez, Kreuziger, De Clercq and Geschke. Not great news considering this climb is much harder.
The other bad news for the peloton is that it looks cold and wet. This is not ideal with a few riders already suffering from the cold. It is inevitable at this time of the year but it is frustrating.
Today, it was BMC who were the dominant team. They managed to get four riders into the move:- Van Garderen, Sanchez, Bookwalter and Gilbert. This was very impressive, considering that Sky only had Swift and Poels. It really tells you something about Swift’s climbing, when he is better than Nieve! Movistar only had Valverde and Moreno, although Lobato joined later. The Spaniards will be a little concerned if BMC outnumber them, but the difficulty of this climb might be too hard for Bookwalter and Gilbert. Saying that, Gilbert is climbing very well! Yeah, he’ll probably be there.
The other riders in the front group were:- Wellens, Chavanel, Felline, Sanz, Hollenstein, Navarro, Busato, Siutsou and Kelderman. Some impressive performances there, especially form Wellens, he already looks in great form. He must be looking at the GC podium, although it will be very hard to beat Valverde, Van Garderen and Poels.
I would be very surprised to see anymore than 20 riders cresting the climb together. It should be the same story as today, but the run for home will be harder to control. If Swift does make it over, he will hope that BMC and Movistar control it for a sprint. Poels will not be able to police all the moves by himself. However, Valverde and Gilbert will not like their chances of beating Swift in a sprint, they will look to attack. If Swift doesn’t make the selection, I think Valverde and Gilbert will be happy to sprint it out!
Fabio Felline, is the fly in the ointment. He is faster than everyone, based on today’s performance. He needs to be dropped. Once over the climb, the riders will assess the situation and decide what to do. If Felline and Swift are present, that is great news for Tim Wellens. He has the ability to surge away from the bunch and take the win. The favourites will believe they will make up any lost time in the TT and final stage. If Wellens makes the selection he has a wonderful chance of victory.
Prediction Time
This is a hard finish. BMC should have the numbers to chase down any Valverde move. They will be wary of losing any time to him. Without Felline and Swift, it will be a sprint and Gilbert will win. If a quicker rider is present, Tim Wellens will attack and take the glory. I will play the percentages and go for Philippe Gilbert!
David Hunter
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