Ruta del Sol 2016 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Alhaurin de la Torre 21km

After three stages where all the big guns were equal on time, today will start to shape the GC.

We don’t have any categorised climbs, but don’t let that fool you. The first climb is around 1km at 10%, with some 15% sections. It’s in the middle of the Spanish countryside, on very narrow roads, making this a demanding TT. The road is never really flat and does feature another climb, right at the end. The final 750m rises at 5.5%, that doesn’t sound much, but a climb at the end of a TT is always difficult.

The weather is always a huge factor in any TT. Looking at the current forecast, the wind is to strengthen throughout the day and is coming from the east. That means a nice tailwind on the way out but a difficult headwind as you turn for home. The wind is to remain strong throughout the afternoon, but there is a chance of a shower around 4pm. That is bad news for the later starters, but forecast can be wrong!

Looking at the earlier starters, Cameron Meyer stands out as a potential winner. He has every chance of setting a time that others will try to beat and if the weather turns, it will prove hard to challenge. Hugh Carthy is also out very early. He has been spending a large number of hours on his TT bike over the last two weeks. He wants to up his performances from 2015, where he focused on his road training. Hopefully he can do a good time, a reward for all his hard work!

The top TT riders here are Vasil Kiryienka, Wout Poels, Jerome Coppel, Wilco Kelderman, Tejay Van Garderen and Sylvain Chavanel. Looking to step up to that level are Tim Wellens, Rafal Majka and Bauke Mollema.

Then we have the Movistar riders. We cannot forget that the Spaniards always do well in Spanish TTs. The route is a great one for Valverde, with not much flat road. If the riders all get equal conditions, he will fancy his chances of a big result. He knows that he cannot lose big team to Van Garderen and Poels, with only one mountaintop finish. The pressure is on Valverde, something he’s been used to his whole career!

Wout Poels is the man they must all fear. He won the TT in Valenciana, with a very good time. He is climbing brilliantly and looking very thin. The route isn’t great for “pure” TT riders and I don’t see Kiryienka winning. The TT World Champion lost 21 seconds to Poels in Valencia, he prefers much longer efforts.

One rider who has been very impressive is Reto Hollenstein of IAM Cycling. He seems to have improved his level and is climbing extremely well. He was 9th in the Valencia TT, only 4 seconds away from the top 5. He isn’t capable of winning this stage, but I would expect to see him landing another top 10 result.

Tejay Van Garderen will be expecting a big performance. He is regarded as a fine TT rider, but his 3 wins in the discipline have all been in America, he’s never won a TT in Europe. I find that surprising considering how talented he is. Records are here to be broken, but going up against Poels might just be too much for him.

Jerome Coppel has started the season off in fine fashion. He destroyed the TT in Besseges, enabling him to also win the GC. Don’t forget that he won the bronze medal in the World Championships in 2015. He really seems to have stepped up his level, since winning his national championship, in June. He is the first starter of the favourites, if he gets favourable conditions, his time will be hard to beat.

Prediction Time

If the conditions were the same for all riders, I would expect Poels, Van Garderen, Valverde, Kiryienka and Coppel to be fighting out the stage win.

I cannot ignore the form of Wout Poels. He was amazing in Valencia and has been visible this week. Poels is also seen riding at the front of the bunch, looking like he is out for a nice ride with his friends!

If it does rain, that ruins the chances of the later starters. If an early starter is to win, I go with Cameron Meyer.

David Hunter

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