Scheldeprijs 2021 – Preview

By David Hunter

Terneuzen > Schoten 194km

The hardest looking edition of Scheldeprijs I’ve ever seen. The route is similar to previous years, but it’s the weather that should make this a brutal race.

Weather

Most of northern Europe is currently experiencing a very cold spell of air coming down from the Arctic. That means this race is set to take place in freezing conditions, with temperatures barely getting much above zero, sleet and a wind of 30-40km/h coming from the north-west. This is going to be a horrible edition of the race.

Lap Circuit

The cobbles are back, but even if wet they just aren’t hard enough to split the pack. Much of the circuit takes place on relatively narrow roads, when the bunch is big getting a good early position is important. Given the weather forecast, I doubt the pack will be big when we hit the circuit, meaning that positioning will be nice and easy.

Finale

We have a big corner with 2.3km to go.

The final bend in the road, from here it’s 1.5km to go and straight.

Tactics

The wind is coming from the north-west, that means a lot of cross/tailwind as the bunch head towards Antwerp. The roads in this part of the world are wide open, the wind is certainly strong enough to split the bunch early in the day, especially with lots of riders looking to get back on the team bus as quickly as possible!

The weather conditions really do have a huge impact on the race. Those with bigger objectives down the road won’t be too pleased about spending five hours on the bike in awful weather, I expect lots of DNFs.

In terms of team strength, Deceuninck – Quick Step are the strongest, but they’ll want a sprint for Sam Bennett. We saw in Gent-Wevelgem that he can handle himself in an echelon, I would expect the Belgians to push the pace and split the bunch, no doubt they’ll expect to have most of their team in the front group and then they can push on. Looking at the other teams I’m not too sure anyone can actually stop them from getting the race they want.

Contenders

Sam Bennett – the Irishman has already netted five wins this season, he’s in great form. He arrives with the strongest team, but that doesn’t guarantee success. If this was a normal edition of the race he’d be the overwhelming favourite, but we’ll need to see how he copes with the bad weather. After going very deep in Gent-Wevelgem, this will be a big test for him.

Cees Bol – the big Dutch sprinter lives very close to the North Sea; these conditions shouldn’t cause him too many problems. He took his first world tour win in Paris-Nice, but his sprint train has been inconsistent this year. He arrives with quite a young team to support him, he could well be isolated when the wind blows, which will make life very difficult for him.

Alexander Kristoff – the master at sprinting after a tough day. I doubt he loves terrible conditions; he just copes better than the others. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win this race.

Arnaud Démare – picked up his first win of the season on Sunday, that will have given him a nice boost as his start to 2021 hasn’t been great. FDJ are a team that usually performs well in echelons, and Démare has previously won in poor weather conditions. The big problem for him is Sam Bennett, but that’s the same for everyone.

Pascal Ackermann – third place is his best result this year, things haven’t been going very well for the German. He’s been without Rüdi Selig for most of the season, having him back will certainly help him in the upcoming races. He’s too good for this winless run to carry on for much longer.

Tim Merlier – he’s enjoying a good season; three wins is quite a good return considering the races he’s been at. As he is a CX rider, I would assume that he goes okay in poor conditions. Merlier has consistently shown his sprinting speed for quite some time now, he’s someone who is growing as a rider and improving at a rapid rate.

Jasper Philipsen – his stage win in the Vuelta came in a rather horrible day, he seems to cope well with cold conditions. The problem is that he is a teammate of Merlier, I’m not sure he’ll get the nod.

Giacomo Nizzolo – his performance in Gent-Wevelgem was excellent, his form seems to be growing. He doesn’t mind a tough day in the saddle, it actually helps him get closer to the really fast sprinters. Qhubeka ASSOS have gone well in recent races, this is a good chance to take an important win.

John Degenkolb – another one who should cope well with the conditions. This season hasn’t been great, and he’ll be gutted that Roubaix has been postponed, but this is an opportunity to challenge for a win.

Bad Weather Experts – given the forecast, this day is perfect for those who excel in tough conditions. Riders like Sénéchal, Van Lerberghe, Politt, Claeys, Bystrøm and maybe even Campenaerts will sense a chance to take the win.

Prediction Time

This is going to be a pretty epic day for all concerned. The wind will blow the race to pieces in Zeeland and then the cold weather will turn the race into a blood bath. I’ll take a win for Florian Sénéchal, he should excel in these conditions.

David Hunter

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