Tirreno Adriatico 2016 Stage 4 Preview
By David Hunter
Montalto di Castro – Foligno 222km
A long day in the saddle for the peloton, with plenty of climbing.
Once the riders reach Foligno, they begin the crucial lap circuit. They have to climb Montefalco on two occasions, plus one ascent of Trevi. The final climb crests with 15km remaining.
Apologies for the poor quality pictures, blame the road book!
Trevi is a constant climb, 4km at 5.3%. The Montefalco is where we’ll get some fun! It starts easy, before ramping up to 16%. The riders then descend quickly to the explosion point. Ramps of 18% await them and a kilometre at over 11%, before the climb levels out. This is a terrific climb, much harder than stage 2.
On stage 2, all of the big favourites remained in contact, except Cancellara. This climb is more difficult, which will interest the GC riders, but the flat run for home will encourage the puncheurs. They will hope that a solo rider attacks and teams work together to ensure a small sprint. That would suit Sagan, Van Avermaet and Boasson Hagen.
If the GC riders want to have some fun, it should be up to Valverde and Nibali. Both looked comfortable on the steep climb during stage 2, they will be keen to take some time back on Van Garderen. Nibali has won stages like this before.
Michal Kwiatkowski is the other GC rider who has the skill set to challenge here. His performance in stage 2 was certainly a step forward from Strade Bianche. If the stage is very selective and we are only left with GC riders, he has the fastest sprint. Saying that, Team Sky will find it hard to drop all the fast riders.
Team Sky were very active on stage 2, they have the riders capable of slimming down the peloton. They will certainly need to drop Sagan, Van Avermaet and Boasson Hagen, if they want to challenge for the stage. That will be the target for Sky, Movistar and Astana. Can they race up the climb and eliminate the puncheurs?
Another rider going very well is Simon Clarke. He took a great win last weekend and was 4th on stage 2. Now that he is away from Orica, he has the freedom to chase his own results. Long distances and tough stages don’t seem to bother the Australian, he is a solid bike rider.
The distance immediately eliminates a lot of riders. Winning a stage over 220km, with 3 challenging climbs, is beyond the vast majority of riders. Think of riders who can challenge in the monuments and you won’t be far away from the winner. Riders like Nibali, Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Van Avermaet, Stybar, Benoot, Ulissi and Cancellara will start as the favourites.
Other riders who looked good on Thursday and have a chance here are EBH, GVA, Yates and Formolo.
The end of the stage isn’t great for a solo attacker, as the road is quite straight. Once into the last 3km it becomes technical, with a couple of crucial corners in the last kilometre. The final corner is at 250m, you need to be in the first 3 riders if you want to win.
Prediction Time
This is a really demanding stage. I think a small group of riders will escape on the climb and stay away. Selecting those riders is hard! I think it will include Stybar, Kwiatkowski, Nibali, Van Garderen and Valverde. The question for me is whether Sagan, EBH or GVA makes it? Looking back at stage 2, it was EBH that was the best. I get the feeling this stage will be too hard for all of them. That opens the door for Michal Kwiatkowski to take his first win for Team Sky.
David Hunter
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