Tirreno Adriatico 2016 – Stage 7 Preview
By David Hunter
San Benedetto del Tronto 10km ITT
The stage is set for a dramatic day by the sea. Today’s brilliant attacking riding seemed to take some of the GC riders by surprise, it certainly narrowed the list of potential winners.
It’s the usual out and back circuit, flat as a pancake. This is about all about power. The weather looks like it will remain constant throughout the day, with only a small risk of a shower around 1pm. Hopefully, the weather will not be a factor in this stage.
Contenders
Fabian Cancellara – form is ridiculous! Winner of Strade Bianche and happy to test his legs out, on the front of the peloton, for most of the race. He already won the TT in Algarve and is a previous winner of this stage, on three separate occasions. Has to start as the favourite.
Tony Martin – lost to Cancellara in the Algarve and a little below his top form just now. He’s also won this TT before.
Peter Sagan – clearly not in top form just now, but he’s still as strong as a bull. He can TT extremely well, he won the Tour of California TT over a similar distance. Needs a big performance to win the GC, as he is 8 seconds behind Greg Van Avermaet.
Greg Van Avermaet – solid over this distance, but not exceptional. Clearly in great early season form, a win here would be a tremendous result for him. He has 7 seconds on Stybar, 8 on Sagan and 21 on Jungels. This is going to be a very close call, but he did well in Qatar over a similar distance. A top 5 result will secure the GC.
Bob Jungels – turing into such a great rider. The Luxembourg champion is particularly good in shorter efforts like this. He knows that he has a lot of ground to make up, if he wants to challenge for the GC. Will be going full gas!
Tejay Van Garderen – lost crucial time to put him out of the GC picture. This was due to a mechanical with 5km to go. Recently won in Andalucia but I don’t think this stage suits him well.
Jan Barta – The Czech strongman has had a slow start to 2016. He is a powerful unit and always capable of a good TT.
Ramunas Navardauskas – would normally be one of the main contenders for this type of stage but crashed during the TTT and hasn’t been at his usual level since.
Edvald Boasson Hagen – winner of the TT in Qatar by an enormous 25 seconds. He really was on a different level that day. He doesn’t look quite as strong just now, but is capable of turning that around for this short effort.
Alex Dowsett – another TT specialist who will be targeting a big result. He is good enough to finish in the top 5, but it would take something special to win.
Michal Kwiatkowski – the Pole looked really strong today, he certainly seems to be over his recent illness. He sits 31 seconds behind GVA, on a really good day he might be able to get close. He certainly should be able to force his way onto the podium and is a realistic challenger for the stage.
Vasil Kiryienka – 10km is just too short for the world champion. Will love the big straights but will struggle to beat Cancellara and Tony Martin.
Prediction Time
The GC is going to be very tight. I think that Van Avermaet has enough of a gap on Sagan to hold onto the win, but they will both be pressured by Jungels and Kwiatkowski. As for the stage, it will be Cancellara beating Tony Martin by 3 seconds.
David Hunter
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