Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 – Overall preview

By @EchelonsHub

At the same time Paris-Nice is on the road, in Italy we have got the equally exciting and prestigious Tirreno-Adriatico, used by classics riders to prime their form, but for the stage-racers and sprinters to achieve great success In the mix of stages available.

The Route

The race starts off with a small time-trial, changing it’s traditional order this year as the first day is set to make some differences right away.

Stage two is sure to be a sprint, however not without it’s difficulties as the last third of the stage is very bumpy and provides opportunities to attack, and drop sprinters.

The third stage is the only one where a bunch sprint is essentially certain as the peloton heads to Terni.

Stage four is the best designed for a breakaway, however with little gaps existing before it it’s likely that the GC contenders will be striving for victory. The summit finish at Bellante is hard enough to eliminate those who aren’t able to climb with the best, but not hard to break the top-form puncheurs, which should make for an interesting mix at the end.

Stage five is the traditional Tirreno hilly stage. It is quite hard, but it is before the queen stage this year which means action is likely going to be more limited. Nevertheless there is ground to make meaningful differences here in the sharp climbs around Fermo.

The queen stage to Carpegna features two ascents of the Monte Carpegna, 6 kilometers at 10%, and two times an extremely sketchy descent which can also create meaningful differences after a long day. No doubt the race is likely to be decided here.

The final day this year does not feature a time-trial but it does see a loop and then a circuit around San Benedetto del Tronto, where many will have their last sprint before Milano-Sanremo.

Weather for the Week

Apparently dry week, however it does seem very likely that the last stages will be quite cold, but nothing that the riders won’t be prepared after a long winter.

GC Contenders

The general classification has one clear favourite which is Tadej Pogacar, winner of virtually everything he’s race so far this season, he’s coming with the intention to revalidate his title and it really is a race that’s his to loose if nothing abnormal happens. His rivals at the Tour de France last year will be between the main opponents here as Jumbo come in with Jonas Vingegaard and Sepp Kuss, whilst INEOS have Richard Carapaz, Tao Geoghegan Hart and Richie Porte.

Then you have Quick-Step with Remco Evenepoel as the likely leader, and Julian Alaphilippe a possible outsider, Miguel Ángel López for Astana, Enric Mas for Movistar, Romain Bardet for DSM and Jakob Fuglsang for Israel as sole leaders who can be up there. Some other teams have strength In numbers like BORA coming in with Emanuel Buchmann and Wilco Kelderman, and EF Education who come with several cards in the form of Mark Padun, Ruben Guerreiro and Rigoberto Uran.

The Italians also have a strong list of outsiders with Giulio Ciccone, Damiano Caruso, Domenico Pozzovivo and Lorenzo Fortunato who are all expected to be up there in the fight for the Top10. There are some more outsiders in the likes of Geoffrey Bouchard, Groupama duo Thibaut Pinot and Attila Valter, and runner-up at the Vuelta a Andalucia Cristián Rodríguez.

The Sprinters

There will be two certain sprint stages, but possible a third to finish in a bunch sprint which will capture the interest of many. For this, a world-class sprinter field has came down to Italy for the week, many of them with their eyes locked on Milano-Sanremo. The main candidates for the wins in these sprints will be Tim Merlier, Caleb Ewan and Mark Cavendish who should split the wins between each other surely.

The list does include many other big names though, with Olav Kooij leading Jumbo-Visma, Pascal Ackermann for UAE, Arnaud Démare for Groupama, Alberto Dainese for Team DSM, Giacomo Nizzolo for Israel, Magnus Cort Nielsen for EF, Elia Viviani for INEOS Grenadiers, Alexander Kristoff for Intermarché, Davide Cimolai for Cofidis, Phil Bauhaus for Bahrain, Michael Matthews for BikeExchange, Nacer Bouhanni for Arkéa and Peter Sagan for TotalEnergies.

The Time-Trialists

And of course, there’s also a time-trial on the opening day which will attribute a stage win and a leader’s jersey in a prestigious race. Adding to some of the names mentioned above, there will be more specialists who will be specifically eyeing the first day. Time-trial world champion Filippo Ganna is the obvious first name, but he’ll face tough competition such as the likes of Edoardo Affini and Kasper Asgreen. Cofidis’ Benjamin Thomas has also had a very strong start to the season and will be a very interesting outsider.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Pogacar

⭐⭐Vingegaard, Buchmann, Carapaz, MA.Lopez

⭐Hart, Evenepoel, Mas, Fuglsang, Kelderman, Padun, Guerreiro, Ciccone, Caruso, Fortunato, Valter, Cr.Rodríguez

I think Tadej Pogacar can with no problem repeat his title. He’s got the form and honestly, no weak spot. As I have mentioned, it’s his race to loose.

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Rúben Silva

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