Tour Down Under 2016 – Stage 3 Preview

By David Hunter

Glenelg – Campbelltown 139km

After a familiar ride around Stirling, the race returns to Corkscrew Road. This is a stage that will shape the GC.

Breakaways don’t always stand a huge chance of success in the Tour Down Under, but coming after Stirling we do have some time gaps. The stage is only 139km long, so it is fairly easy to contain but it will need more than one team to keep the break within reach. Some of the GC teams might be reluctant to waste riders in a break, when protecting their leader is number one objective.

With time bonuses being of great importance, Orica might try and keep the race together until the first sprint point. They got this spot on in stage 2, but the late crash cost them more seconds. If Gerrans had won stage 2, I think the race would have been all over. Instead, McCarthy, Ulissi and Dennis all made time on him. Having secured 5 seconds from intermediate sprints, means the day certainly wasn’t a disaster. I expect Orica to try and keep the race together, until the 1st sprint point.

One of my favourite parts of the stage is the approach to Corkscrew Road. The steep downhill allows the riders to reach ridiculous speeds and expect to see some sprint trains in action. The hill gets steep quickly, you must be well positioned or fear the risk of dropping valuable ground.

If you include the lower slopes of the climb, it’s 3.6km at 6.7%, with a maximum if 17.6%. The last 2.5km is around the 8% mark. One of the issues some riders have is the speed you carry into the climb. The peloton are flying and then they hit 8.7% for 500m. This really takes it out of the legs and smashes the bunch to bits, right at the beginning of the climb.

The climb really gets tough in the middle section, this is where Cadel Evans dropped Richie Porte in 2014, en route to a famous win. The current Strava record was set on Saturday, by a certain Nathan Haas. He covered the climb in 6:31. One of the issues for a solo rider is the length of the climb. It is difficult to get a large lead, but thanks to the descent into the finish, it is possible to stay away with a lead of 15 seconds.

Having teammates to help chase is a luxury that most don’t have. This stage sorts the riders into two groups: potential winners and losers. In 2014, a group of 12 riders finished behind Evans. The chances of having multiple riders from one team is slim, but Orica will hope to support Simon Gerrans. With Impey and Albasini, the Aussies have two riders that should survive the climb. They might lose a little ground but would hope to make it up on the descent. Gerrans will need them as he doesn’t have a great record on this climb. He couldn’t follow Evans in 2014 and lost over 2 minutes in 2013. This is the stage Gerro will be worried about. Having crashed in stage 2, we will have to see if it has an impact on his riding. They say he only lost a little skin, hopefully it doesn’t hamper him.

Looking to apply pressure is the rest of the GC contenders. The worry for Orica is that some of these teams have multiple riders to think about:-

BMC – Dennis, Porte

Sky – Thomas, Henao

Lampre – Ulissi, Meintjes

Dimension Data – Meyer, Haas

Cannondale – Clarke, Bevin

Not to mention the strong climbers who might get a little freedom:-

Movistar – Fernandez

AG2R – Pozzovivo

Lotto – Valls

IAM – Pantano

Tinkoff – McCarthy

If you have two riders and they both look good on the climb, you can attack as a pair. This is very difficult for a solo rider to defend against. Gerrans will hope to have teammates, but if not, he might get lucky as another team will be forced to take up the chase. If you have numbers, you have to chase!

If it all comes back together, the sprint will be between Gerrans, Haas, Ulissi and Bevin. You might be surprised by the inclusion of Paddy Bevin, but the Kiwi really can do the lot. He’ll be riding for Simon Clarke, but if we get a small sprint, Bevin is faster than most other riders.

As the big teams look to mark each other, it’s possible for a “smaller” rider to escape. Someone like Pozzovivo will be marked tightly, but Rafa Valls will be afforded some room. The Spaniard won the 2015 Tour of Oman and I expect big things from him. Riding with Adam Hansen, he will get a good level of support, heading up the early slopes of the climb. When he attacks, he’ll hope the others look at each other. He’s been flying in training, so these boys can’t let him have too much of a gap. A problem for Valls is the lack of a finishing sprint. If he is to succeed, he needs to arrive solo, just like Cadel did!

Orica’s plan will be interesting. They know that stage 4 could suit Gerrans, so might try to ride defensively. BMC are the team that really need to attack. If they manage to get Porte or Dennis away, they will be within reach of winning the overall title. This stage really is that important. Orica will be delighted if we get a small sprint of around 10 riders. Gerrans would be sure to take some bonus seconds and put himself into a really strong position. The tactical battle will be fascinating, but Gerrans will need support. If left isolated, he’ll have to hope that another team takes up the chase.

What about Tinkoff? I did try to warn you about Jay McCarthy! An incredible sprint has put him into the ochre jersey. He does have a turn of speed but if we get a small sprint, he’ll likely lose his jersey. Looking at his team, I don’t think he’ll have any help on the climb. McCarthy will need to box clever and try to force some of the others to do the chasing. Hopefully, he’s good at poker!

Prediction Time

He was very unlucky in Stirling, now it’s time for revenge. I keep hearing stories about the form of Nathan Haas and have him down for this stage. I think we’ll get a small sprint and Haas will beat Gerrans. Keep an eye out for a flying Rafa Valls. Give him too much freedom and it’s game over.

David Hunter

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