Tour Down Under 2016 – Stage 5 Preview

By David Hunter

McLaren Vale – Willunga Hill 151.5km

It’s D-Day in Australia.

Easily one of the best stages in the whole year, we return to Willunga Hill.

A nice easy day, until we hit the lap circuit containing Willunga Hill. The approach to it is tricky, a wide open space which can be affected by crosswinds. Teams don’t often try to be clever at this point, instead they wait until the climb.

The weather forecast isn’t too bad. It’s to be around 25 degrees and the wind will actually be a headwind for the approach to the climb and a cross/headwind for the climb itself. Remember, weather forecasts are not always accurate! A headwind on the climb will make it very difficult for solo riders to get away.

The climb is 3.6km at 7%. On paper it isn’t the hardest climb in the world, but this is done in the big chain ring. The riders seem to almost sprint up most of the way, with the crowd roaring them on. The fans are amazing on the hill. It’s the biggest day in Australian cycling and they pack out the climb, providing an amphitheatre for the riders to perform in. For the Aussies, there is no better stage.

Past Winners

2015 – Richie Porte

2014 – Richie Porte

2013 – Simon Gerrans

2012 – Alejandro Valverde

This hill was often thought to belong to Simon Gerrans, but Richie Porte seems to have wrestled that from him. Porte has been amazing here, in the last two years. In 2014 he attacked from distance, with Cadel Evans following. It didn’t take long for him to distance Cadel and he soloed home.

Last year, he put in a sustained attack from around 2km out. It was a jaw dropping piece of climbing ability. He eventually dropped Rohan Dennis, but he did enough to save the ochre jersey. I wonder which method of attack Porte will use this year. Certainly he will need to play the role of good teammate for Rohan Dennis. Will the team ask him to sacrifice his own chances to try and help his teammate?

It would be a massive surprise if the stage played out differently from previous years. Only in 2014, did a long range attack work. In 2012 and 2013 it was two riders sprinting to the line and Porte gapped Dennis just before the final corner in 2015. Due to the length of the climb, it really should be decided very close to the finishing line.

I warned that stage 4 wasn’t to be underestimated and it turned out to be a beauty. Not only did Simon Gerrans win another stage but he took 13 bonus seconds. In addition, Dennis, Valls and Woods were on the wrong side of a split in the bunch and lost a further 8 seconds. Gerro now leads Jay McCarthy by 14 seconds and Rohan Dennis by 26. That looks like a comfortable lead, especially as Richie Porte is 36 seconds down. It means that BMC aren’t as much of a threat as they would like. If Porte goes, Orica don’t need to start chasing immediately. In fact, some of the other teams will respond in order to protect their own spot in the top 5. Orica are in the perfect position.

As Gerrans packs a sprint like no other climber, they can ride a defensive race and follow wheels. If that means he is at the front at the end, he’ll win the sprint. Winning three consecutive stages would be some achievement. Gerrans will be able to count upon the support of Matt Hayman, Michael Albasini and Daryl Impey on the slopes of Willunga. Despite the brilliance of Gerro, Daryl Impey has been the rider of the race. He’s been instrumental in two wins for Caleb Ewan and one for Simon Gerrans. What a ride!

BMC are left with a decision to make. They need to come up with a tactical plan that will unsettle Orica and hopefully isolate Gerrans. In order to do this, Richie Porte will have to sacrifice his own chances of success. If they are feeling really brave, they attack on the first ascent of Willunga. This never happens, but if they are serious about winning they need to go early. If they can drop all the Orica riders, it will allow Dennis to attack early on the final climb. If they wait until the last lap, it will be impossible for Dennis to make up the time on Gerrans. Be brave or go home!

The battle for the podium is fascinating. Jay McCarthy is in a great position but he was in some difficulty on Corkscrew Road. Some of the pure climbers will fancy their chances of cracking him. Sitting very close to him is Henao, Morabito, Fernandez, Pozzovivo, Woods and Valls. Ruben Fernandez was 3rd on this stage in 2015 and has been impressive throughout. On Corkscrew Road it was Woods and Henao who seemed to be in the best form, but you cannot underestimate Pozzovivo, Morabito or Valls. This stage is going to be great, even if they ochre jersey has already been decided.

Prediction Time

The type of finish we get depends on the tactics of BMC. They are the only team with two riders capable of hurting Gerrans. The rest of the teams will be chasing a stage win, in a race dominated by Orica and Aussies! Impey will, yet again, be the main man for Gerrans. I cannot see him losing the ochre jersey, but don’t think he’ll mind not taking the stage. As BMC and Orica get involved in a tactical battle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another rider sneak away for glory. McCarthy is a bit too close on GC for Orica to let him escape, so I think it will either be Sergio Henao or Rafa Valls. I picked him for Corkscrew and I’m sticking with him, Rafa Valls for the win!

David Hunter

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