Tour Down Under 2016 – Stage 6 Preview
By David Hunter
Adelaide – Adelaide 90km
Another great edition of the Tour Down Under draws to a close. We have one stage left and it’s a day for the quick men. The stage is a criterium around the streets of Adelaide, a route well known to most of the sprinters. It’s also a course that I like.
This isn’t a flat criterium, which is a good thing! We have two short climbs that the riders will cover 20 times. This does make it a little more challenging, especially as some of the riders will already be feeling tired. The first race of the year is always tough on the legs, especially for sprinters.
In the last lap, the final climb makes positioning very important. It might only be short, but after the climb it’s tough to move up the bunch. You really want to be in the first 20 riders at the crest of the climb.
Looking at the weather forecast, the sprint should have a headwind. This means experience is crucial. You cannot get over excited and jump too soon. Instead, you should wait in the wheels until 150m and then go. A headwind can also be good news for riders who don’t have the best positional sense. If the front riders go too soon, the ones behind them have great chance of success. Music to the ears of JJ Lobato!
The circuit does contain a number of tricky corners, we do have a chance of crashes. This significantly reduced the size of the bunch in 2015, hopefully they all get around safe this year. It seems a long time ago since the People’s Choice Classic. Caleb Ewan and Daryl Impey were awesome that night, with Nizzolo also looking good.
Stage 1 has given us the only full sprint of the race. Again, it was Caleb Ewan dominating. This time Mark Renshaw and Wouter Wippert were the riders who also shone. Put simply, Caleb Ewan is the huge favourite for the stage! Not only is he one of the quickest here but he has the best lead-out rider. It will take something special for Caleb to lose. That could be a brilliant ride by another or a mistake from him or Impey. It could happen!
The race has already claimed two of the quick men: Matteo Pelucchi and Brenton Jones. Plenty still remain!
Caleb Ewan – Loves a crit, great at positioning, has the best lead-out man.
Giacomo Nizzolo – Not looking at his very best. Good chance of the podium.
Mark Renshaw – Can blow hot and cold. Experience will help.
Koen de Kort – Not fast enough.
Ben Swift – Sky will try and take control but they lack a lead-out man, so he won’t win.
Greg Henderson – Had a very strong race, in great condition, would love to see him doing well.
Wouter Wippert – Very fast and won here in 2015. Maybe the only one possible of stopping Caleb.
Adam Blythe – Was very strong in the People’s Choice and again in stage 1. Has a good chance of the podium.
JJ Lobato – Not in form.
Leigh Howard – Not fast enough.
Marko Kump – First big race for Lampre, will be tired by now.
Steele Von Hoff – Not had a good race. One last chance for redemption.
Graeme Brown – Without Brenton Jones, Brownie will get a rare chance to test his legs.
The closing laps will see Orica, Sky and Trek fight for control. Teams like Tinkoff and Dimension Data will have to leave it late and hope to time their push to perfection. It really is a case of Ewan against everyone else.
Prediction Time
An already brilliant race will get even better. Orica to take their 4th victory of the TDU and Ewan’s 2nd.
David Hunter
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