Tour of Flanders 2015 Preview

By David Hunter

 Brugge – Oudenaarde 264.9km

When you ask cycling fans what their favourite race is, quite a few say Flanders. It’s one of those races that people love to watch. It’s a beauty of a race, with 19 helligen and not just any old helligen!

The length of the race and the brutal climbs turns this race into a battle of the fittest. From climb number 12, the race starts to seriously heat up. Here are the climbs in more detail:-

Kwaremont – 2.2km at 4%, max 11.6%

Paterberg – 360m at 12.9%, max 20.3%

Koppenberg – 600m at 11.6%, max 22%

Steenbeekdries – 700m at 5.3%, max 6.7%

Taaienberg – 530m at 6.6%, max 15.8%

Kruisberg – 2.5km at 5%, max 9%

The closing route is just the hardest known to man! The Koppenberg, Kwaremont, Taaienberg and Paterberg are just brutal. The first selection will be made on the Kwaremont, after 210.3km. This climb is long and hard, but the main riders won’t make a move yet, it’s too far out. The same goes for the Paterberg. The main action will come before the Koppenberg.

This is an iconic climb but the move will probably go, on the road into the climb. Still, the big riders will watch and wait.

The Taaienberg is harder than in other races, as they can’t ride the gutter. Due to the barriers, they are forced onto the cobbles. Tom Boonen isn’t here either, so expect someone else to fill his attacking role. Could Vanmarcke go long?

For me, the key point of the race, is the last ascent of the Kwaremont. I have spoken to both Tiesj Benoot and Edward Theuns and they both agree. It’s also where Geraint Thomas thinks the finale will start. Cast your mind back to E3 Harelbeke and the attack of Geraint Thomas. When he went, only Stybar could follow. The Welshman attacked on the hardest part of the climb and only the Czech rider could stay with him. Peter Sagan managed to bridge near the end of the climb, something he’s done before. Sagan seems to struggle on the hardest section of this climb and usually loses contact, relying on bridging the gap, on the false flat. This is a risky business and cost him, like last year.

After this climb, we still have the final climb to go…the Paterberg. One of my favourite moments in cycling was Cancellara dropping Sagan in 2013. The power, the pace, the pure strength was something that will stay with me for a long time. Vanmarcke managed to match Cancellara, in 2014. That was impressive!

The final 7km is on big, wide roads. If a small group is still together, it’s incredibly tactical. If you are solo, it’s a nice lap of honour!

Here are the teams and their riders who could compete:-

Trek – Devolder

AG2R – no one

Astana – Boom

BMC – Van Avermaet, Oss

Etixx – Terpstra, Trentin, Vandenbergh, Stybar, Van Keirsbulck

FDJ – Offredo

IAM – Chavanel, Devenyns

Lampre – Pozzato

Lotto Soudal – Roelandts, Benoot, Debusschere

Movistar – no one

Orica – Hayman, Keukeleire

Cannondale – Bauer

Giant – Degenkolb

Katusha – Kristoff, Paolini

Lotto Jumbo – Vanmarcke

Team Sky – Rowe, Stannard, Wiggins, Thomas

Tinkoff – Sagan

Androni – no one

Bora – no one

Cofidis – Lemoine

MTN – no one

Roompot – no one

Europcar – Jerome

Topsport – Theuns, Wallays

Wanty – Leukemans

As ever, strength in numbers is important. The strongest teams are Etixx, Sky and Lotto Soudal, in that order. This means they can send riders on the attack and force others to work. Last year, Vandenbergh, went to anchor the GVA move and he ended with 4th place. I would expect Team Sky to work very hard keeping the race together, to let Thomas attack on the Kwaremont. I wonder if Etixx will help and let Stybar, Thomas and Terpstra fight it out for the win.

There is a danger with this tactic, you give riders like Sagan and Vanmarcke an easy day and they will be fresh at the finish. Both Sky and Etixx will look to get riders in the later moves, to try and force these boys into working. This is a risky tactic, as it can lead to one of their lesser riders going for the win. It’s the gamble that the teams usually take.

If everyone is right and the big attacks go on the Kwaremont, then we should see Thomas, Stybar, Terpstra and Vanmarcke to the fore.

Can Degenkolb and Kristoff really battle out for the win? If they are with the lead riders, I can’t see them surviving the Paterberg. It’s such a hard climb, both men are too big, in my opinion. If they did survive it, they would be forced to chase all the closing attacks, due to their sprinting speed. For me, they won’t win.

Can an outsider win? The simple answer is yes. Due to the tactical nature of the race, it’s possible for a rider to get in the select break and sprint out the win. Dries Devenyns is the man who could get lucky. He was strong here in 2014 and recently got some good time in a breakaway. It’s going to be hard but you never know!

I haven’t really discussed Lotto Soudal. They are in form and won’t be under pressure to control the race. Local boy, Tiesj Benoot, might just have turned 21 but he’s a phenomenal talent. He will be there to help Roelandts and Debusschere but he could benefit from marking a break, late in the race. Both their big leaders are looking stong just now, working very well in GW. Lotto will hope to have a man left in the finale of the race. They could surprise people, especially Roelandts. His ride in GW was nothing short of sensational. It seems that Yogi has found his mojo again. He’s a danger to the big favourites.

Greg Van Avermaet was brilliant last year. He got left on the front, leading out the sprint, but still finished 2nd. He started the season very well but crashed hard in E3. He did complete GW but we didn’t see him much. He should have recovered from the crash and be fresh to attack here. Fans love his attacking style of racing and he can usual time his attack to perfection. GVA has a big chance of winning the top prize.

Without Cancellara and Boonen, it really should be time for Peter Sagan to win this race. Unfortunately, he’s not been very good this season. Yes, he made the move in E3 but his lack of strength was exposed by Thomas. The race does suit him well but he doesn’t have the form. As I’ve previously mentioned, he seems to have bulked up quite considerably. This makes it more difficult for him to cope with the Paterberg and Koppenberg. I don’t see him winning the race.

That leaves Thomas, Terpstra, Stybar and Vanmarcke. This is some group of riders! Thomas is the rider in the best form. He is really starting to move into the elite rider category, thanks to his win in E3. Stybar has also had a great season. I think these two are the strongest. Just behind them are Terpstra and Vanmarcke. Terpstra has been strong in some races but disappointing in others. He could benefit from Etixx outnumbering Sky, late in the race. Vanmarcke can cope with this race but he seems a little below his early season form. Having matched Cancellara in 2014, you would expect Vanmarcke to make the next step now. He started the season very well but hasn’t looked as strong as the other elite riders in recent weeks. That doesn’t mean he won’t win here!

Prediction Time

Thomas to go on the Kwaremont and Stybar will follow. Stijn Vandenbergh and Niki Terpstra have a chance of following, as does Sagan and Vanmarcke. The Paterberg is Terpstra’s climb and he’ll attack. Thomas will be forced to follow and Stybar will then make the crucial move. It’s time for Stybar to claim the biggest win of his career.

David Hunter

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