Tour of Oman 2015 – Stage 1 Preview
By David Hunter
Bayt Al Naman Castle – Al Wutayyah 161km
The race begins with a nice stage for the sprinters. The organisers have always made the opening stage very easy and a guaranteed sprint. This year is no different.
We have many sprinters here but none of the big 3: Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish. This opens the door to some of the “new guard”.
Alexander Kristoff was brilliant in Qatar, taking home 3 stage wins. Racing in Qatar is crazy and takes a lot of energy. It will be interesting to see what his energy levels are like. In Qatar, he had a full team at his disposal but he has to share leadership duties with Joaquim Rodriguez. Importantly, his final men remain the same from Qatar, with both Marco Haller and Jacopo Guarnieri remaning by his side. It’s a big ask for him to dominant another race so early in the season.
Peter Sagan went very close in Qatar, finishing 2nd on two occasions. He is looking more muscular than in previous seasons, the extra power will help his sprinting. With Tinkoff – Saxo focussed on the GC, he’ll need to take advantage of other sprint trains, something he’s used to from his Cannondale days.
I was disappointed with FDJ in Qatar. Their sprint train looked a shambles and Demare didn’t get near a win. Demare is now being lead-out by Delage and he is a rider that needs a good pilot fish. They won’t admit it but they miss Soupe. On paper it should work: Chavanel, Bonnet, Offredo and Delage is a decent train but Delage isn’t a top quality final man. This is the main problem f0r FDJ, Demare needs an excellent lead-out man and they don’t have one.
Nacer Bouhanni has a team built around him at Cofidis. They have Ahlstrand, Chainel, Rollin, Senechal, Lemoine, Petit and Soupe. This is a very strong sprint team. They slowly got their act together, in Qatar, culminating with 3rd place on the final stage. During that stage I watched them very closely and was impressed with what I saw. In my opinion, Soupe has the capabilities to be one of the best lead-out men in the world. He looks to be finding fitness and form, when this happens Bouhanni starts to win.
Sam Bennett took a landmark win in that final stage in Qatar. In that race, he had a squad all for him. In this race, they arrive with some GC riders, so it will be harder to dominated the sprint trains. Bora have tinkered with the positions of their train. They have Dempster, then Matzka, then Bennett. Ralf Matzka was very strong, in the last man position, in Qatar. Bennett will be full of confidence and ready to take advantage of his good form.
Another in form sprinter is Matteo Pelucchi. Two wins in Mallorca and the Italian is flying. IAM would love this to continue in Oman but their team looks to be more GC based than sprint based. He does have Brandle and Van Genechten, but this is weak compared to Cofidis and FDJ. If Pelucchi is going to win, he’s going to have to do it the hard way!
Nikias Arndt got the nod for Giant in Qatar and he’s their sprinter in this race too. He’ll have De Backer, Sinkeldam, Veelers and Stamsnijder at his disposal. This is strong! Although not at the speed of Kittel, Arndt is fast. He managed to bag two 3rd places in Qatar, he’ll be looking for wins in Oman. The team is strong and will deliver him into the right position, it’ll be up to him to finish it off.
Sacha Modolo hasn’t had a great start to the season. He missed out in San Luis and was rubbish in Qatar. He isn’t getting much help in this race, as they look to support Rui Costa. No Richeze usually means no win. He does have Pozzato and Bono. Matteo Bono is a massively underrated rider. He is very good at helping to position Modolo in the final 10km. Like Sagan, he’ll have to ride other trains and hope to get lucky.
Danny Van Poppel was another to disappoint in Qatar. He has the perfect chance to redeem himself and he arrives with his brother(Boy Van Poppel), Cancellara and Steegmans. On paper, this is strong. No one is faster than Cancellara in the closing kilometres. If he hits the front inside the final 3km, Van Poppel will have a great chance of success.
Modern day sprinting is all about position and I’ve spoken a lot about sprint trains. For a rider to be successful, he needs to be deliver in the right place, at the right time. Most times will be looking to hit the front with 2km remaining, with 3 men in front of their sprinter. The pace needs to be kept very high, to stop others from reaching the front. Etixx – Quick Step know this as well as any. They have a very strong sprint train, but are lacking a top sprinter, in this race. Yes, they have Boonen and Trentin, but both will struggle to win a stage. Their lack of top end speed is made up for by their lead-out. Etixx will be in the right place and will give their chosen sprinter every chance of success. Can they finish it off?
MTN – Qhubeka arrive with Matt Goss. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Gossy launch a sprint. He’s under pressure to deliver as he’ll be getting paid a good salary by his new team. Can he rediscover his old form?
JJ Rojas looked as surprised as everyone else, when he won stage 1 in Qatar. Movistar are not a sprint team, but Rojas is a very clever rider and took advantage of some hesitation, in the peloton. Unfortunately for Rojas, that might be his only win of the season…..harsh!
Orica will be working for Adam Blythe. Their new signing has made a great start, but will struggle to win any of the pure sprint stages. He’s another rider that does lack some sprinting speed but his team are excellent and will position him correctly. He’ll have a chance of making the podium.
Prediction Time
Looking at the sprint trains, I think Giant – Alpecin look the best, with Cofidis next. The form of Kristoff, Sagan and Bennett cannot be ignored either. Arndt is certainly a huge danger, as he’ll be put into a great position. I’m going to pick him for stage 1, although I am concerned if Kristoff or Bouhanni gets his wheel.
David Hunter
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