Tre Valli Varesine 2017 Preview

By David Hunter

Saronno – Varese 195km

The bumper week of Italian cycling continues, with the 97th edition of this challenging race.

After beginning in Saronno, the riders head into Varese. Once there, they have to tackle 9 laps of a challenging circuit. This is where the fun begins!

The main problem for the peloton is the Montello climb, which is 1.15km at 6.5%. Having a maximum gradient of 10% is great for attacking riders. We then have a 6km descent, before the rise to the finishing line. The lap circuit has very little flat roads, perfect for those watching the race. The riders have to climb 2000m in just 110km, this is a hard circuit.

Weather

A nice day in Italy.

Tactics

Anything can happen in this race. In previous years, we’ve seen small sprints, larger sprints and solo wins. It is incredibly hard to predict what is going to happen. Every lap of the circuit will see plenty of attacks, thanks to the Montello climb. It is just long enough for the elastic to snap in the bunch. The larger teams will always want representation in the moves, usually someone misses out and they have to chase down the move.

If we get the right mix in a break, they won’t come back. This is option 1.

We get a big attack on the final ascent and a small group goes away to battle for the win. This is option 2.

The attacks are brought back together and we get a sprint featuring 30 riders. This is option 3.

Take your pick!

Contenders

Michael Matthews – I’m really pleased to see the Aussie coming to this race. On paper,  it is ideal for him, thanks to his climbing and sprinting ability. Sunweb have two strong options, with him and Tom Dumoulin. Matthews will have been happy and disappointed with his bronze medal at the worlds, expect to see him ride with a point to prove. Recent form has been good, it will be a question of motivation.

Sonny Colbrelli – the Italian will be disappointed with two 2nd places in his last two races. Given his form, and history in these races, he will not be happy until he wins. Bahrain have a strong team and they are in great current form. If not Colbrelli, they also have Visconti and Nibali. They will have a big say in the outcome of this race.

Diego Ulissi – I find it surprising that Ulissi has never won this race. The Italian is almost unbeatable in a small bunch sprint. Last year was almost perfect for him, it was a shame that Colbrelli also made the front group. His win in Montreal is an example of his good recent form.

Tom Dumoulin – provides Sunweb with a brilliant second option. His win at the worlds was simply amazing, I would expect his form to still be there. An aggressive rider, he is the perfect teammate for Matthews. The Dutchman will look to be part of all the moves in the last two laps, allowing Matthews to wait for a sprint.

Michael Valgren – looked strong in GP Beghelli, despite not doing much since the worlds. The Dane will love this circuit, it is perfect for his skill set. Expect to see him stretching his legs in the last couple of laps, hoping to break the elastic. In a small sprint, he is quick and cannot be underestimated.

Rigo Uran – came very close to winning this race in 2016, he was only brought back in the final kilometre. After a good performance in Emilia, the Colombian is clearly still in good form. He will ride this race with freedom, as his big target is Lombardia. That means we will see him ride an attacking race, something I love to see. Cannondale arrive with a strong team and they will hope to feature on the podium.

Michael Albasini – won this race in 2014, beating Colbrelli in a small sprint. The Swiss star is enjoying a purple patch of recent form, not bad considering he is now 36! He got away in the closing stages of GP Beghelli, but it wasn’t to be. 7th place in the worlds was a great ride and I think he has a strong chance of doing something in this race. Given the sprinting speed of Colbrelli, I think he needs to attack in the final lap.

Michael Kwiatkowski – I’m really excited to see the Pole riding here. This circuit is wonderful for him and he has a good record in Italy. He will have been disappointed with his performance at the worlds, 11th wasn’t really what he expected. Given the circuit has a lot of climbing and descending, he can attack at any point, making it a stressful day for his opponents. I expect a big performance.

Steve Cummings – after the disappointment of failing to make the GB team for the worlds, Cummings put it all behind him by winning the opening stage of Giro della Toscana. Such a brilliant rider, it was a disgraceful decision by the GB selectors, especially considering the level of the riders that went instead of Cummings. The Brit has a wonderful tactical brain, that makes him a very dangerous opponent in a race like this.

Prediction Time

I think we’ll see a very attacking race and a group will get away from the bunch. Winning the small sprint will be Michal Kwiatkowski.

David Hunter

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