Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana 2022 – Stage 3 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Fabio Jakobsen took his first sprint opportunity of the season to capitalize as he won dominantly in Torrent. It was a relaxed stage with a very stressful ending, as several crashes were seen in the final kilometers, Quick-Step though always kept the leadout in front and despite Intermarché taking over In the final kilometer, Jakobsen’s sprint in the uphill final straight was above the competition, with Juan Sebastián Molano and Elia Viviani wrapping up the podium.

Positive: Quick-Step taking another win, and Evenepoel being a team player despite having a lead to defend tomorrow.

Negative: David Dekker and Ryan Gibbons hit the deck and missed the sprint. David de la Cruz was involved in a crash or splits, it’s unclear but he lost 46 seconds and left the Top10.

The Route

It’s the queen stage of the Valenciana and as Spain gets us used to so much, it’s a murito day! Now, not exactly the shortest of climbs but the final steep ramps will be grueling, but before that the riders have to make it through a hilly day inside the hills near Alicante where many train throughout the winter.

With just 16 kilometers to go the riders will face a hilltop near the town of Tibi. Positioning battle will already be present at the summit, a short but fast downhill section comes after, a sharp ramp leads the riders into the intermediate sprint in the town center, and then another fast descent leaves the riders in the base of the final climb.

It can be split into two. Above you have the whole ascent but it does feature flat bits that “kill” the average. Officially it is said the last 5.5Km are at 10%, and it’s a climb that gets it’s hardest ramps towards the end, truly an excruciating one that can see riders blow up big time In the final kilometer, pacing is crucial.

The climb also includes, as you may have seen in just about any media outlet, gravel. Now, it is solely steep uphill gravel so you can’t expect it to make any difference really, but it’ll make for some very nice footage.

The Weather

Another gentle day where the weather poses no issue.

Breakaway Chances: 10%

Very unlikely, for a starters early season races rarely see breakaways succeed as there are many riders who believe they can win. Mainly here, Movistar and Bora at least will want to work because their only chance to win either GC or the stage is to make sure the pace is hard and there is no breakaway ahead, bonus seconds are available. Quick-Step have no reason to push but likely they’ll control the stage for a little bit, but it’ll all come down to the final climb, where strategy won’t matter that much, it’ll be all about who has the legs.

The Favourites

Remco Evenepoel – Spotless on the opening day, it won’t be easy to see him dislodged from the yellow jersey. Evenepoel has some good support and seemingly good form aswell, it won’t be the most suited of climbs to him but he is the man everyone has to attack if they dream of the win.

Aleksandr Vlasov – He’s showed up in really good form to the beginning of the season, now being the sole leader and having the likes of Wilco Kelderman at his disposal it will be interesting to see what the Russian can do.

Movistar – They surged attacks on the opening day but didn’t manage to react when Evenepoel attacked. Here it’s different it’s a climb where pacing is much more important. Can they benefit from having two dangerous riders? I don’t think so, but both can take the win if they find themselves on a good day, Enric Mas and Alejandro Valverde.

Carlos Rodriguez – Third in the overall and it’s not a big surprise, Carlos Rodriguez is taking up the leadership role here and will have a suiting stage being a pure climber. Sivakov is also decently well positioned in the GC, Geogheghan Hart can be a wildcard as he had a mechanical on the bottom of the climb yesterday and I feel we haven’t seen his true form.

Antwan Tolhoek – A good climb for the lightweight climber. He’s showing great form, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him once again among the favourites, and very much within the podium fight. Giulio Ciccone is also an interesting rider but I would believe he’s still getting his form dialed in.

Jakob Fuglsang – Made an opportunist move yesterday, the Dane is looking good and will have a nice challenge to test the legs ahead of some of his main goals.

Furthermore you have some more riders who will be lurking, that will find better conditions in a longer climb that suits their characteristics better. David de la Cruz is an obvious pick as he’s been looking good, struggled with the explosivity in the opening stage, this is of course if he hasn’t crashed today. The Bahrain riders have a weird situation as Bilbao and Teuns seem to be on supportive roles, Luis León Sanchez surprised and is sitting 5th in the overall but it isn’t expected that he’ll be able to keep it in such a day.

UAE also have Marc Soler who seemed to climb well but has lost a lot of time due to a badly timed crash, Juan Ayuso should be protected but I reckon it’s too early to see him battling for the top spots.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#37 Elia Viviani – It’s time to try and take it easy, I want you to protect and support the guys in the beginning of the stage, and the same whilst everything is calm during the climbs. When things accelerate drift back in the peloton, wait for the grupetto to form and then just roll to the line.

#114 Ide Schelling – The form is not there yet Ide but we need to work here, Aleksandr is looking great and we have to try to win the overall and the only way how is to make the race hard. During most of the day stay in the wheels, we’ll have enough guys to keep you out of the wind. From the base of the final climb, and I mean the 10Km to go mark you hit the front. Wilco should be able to work a bit more after you, but what we need is a sharp pace from the base of the climb, make it a long effort, maybe Remco will suffer with it.

#63 Jan Tratnik – Ideally I would tell you to go for a breakaway as we have many riders who essentially just have to do their best and test themselves, but the chances are low, the start is flat so we wouldn’t get a strong group either ways. Stay with the guys, we don’t know exactly

how good they’ll ride so make sure all 4 have what they need, it isn’t a day to work, just ride the wheels alongside them for as long as possible.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Evenepoel, Vlasov, Mas

⭐⭐Valverde, Tolhoek, Rodriguez, Fuglsang, Hart

⭐Soler, De la Cruz, Ciccone, Sivakov, Teuns, Hermans

It’s a brutal climb, and will be a long effort. Evenepoel is likely the man to beat, but I do think the pure climbers will prefer this effort, Aleksandr Vlasov is my favourite to take this one.

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Rúben Silva

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