Vuelta a España 2016 – Stage 5 Preview
By David Hunter
Viveiro – Lugo 171.3km
After a few tough days for the GC riders, they can relax a little.
The riders still have to deal with 2600m of climbing, but that’s hardly surprising given we are in Galicia. There is one official climb, 11.8km at 3.8%. It’s a long climb, but sprinters should really be surviving this climb. However, if a team decides to hit it hard, some will be distanced.
The Finish
This is not an easy finish. At 3km to go, we have a kilometre at 4/5%. Just before the 2km sign, the riders have to deal with a steep ramp, luckily it only lasts 100m. After this, it does become much easier. We have a couple of corners before the flamme rouge, then a lazy right hand turn as the road kicks up to around 2%, for the sprint.
Some of the sprinters could get a bit lost from 3km to go. It’s very essential to hit the front, it doesn’t matter if you run out of numbers. Get on the front and take your chances!
Breakaway Hopes
Not a particularly tough day to control, but Giant and Trek will want some help. Most of the other teams let them control stage 2, leaving both teams a little short in the closing kilometres. They will expect Orica and Etixx to help out. If this doesn’t happen, the break could establish a sizeable gap.
A Late Attack
The 3km drag up to 2km remaining is wonderful news for attackers. It will be hard for the sprinter teams to control this section of the race. Most people would agree that Arndt and Bonifazio are the fastest riders here, so the other teams will look to put them under pressure. Etixx would like to slim down the bunch, allowing them to perform another smash and grab sprint performance.
Contenders
Gianni Meersman – will be full of confidence after his impressive win on Sunday. The uphill nature of the sprint is great news for him. He’ll start the race as one of the favourites, don’t be surprised if he takes another win.
Niccolo Bonifazio – was poor on Sunday. He doesn’t get many opportunities with Trek, so he needs to take them when they arrive. If he disappoints again, the team will quickly lose confidence in his ability.
Magnus Cort Nielsen – the hilly finish is wonderful for him. Orica are brilliant at delivering their sprinter into a good position. He took a great win in the Tour of Denmark recently, in an uphill sprint, so expect him to make the podium again.
Nikias Arndt – I picked him for Sunday, but he was caught behind the fall of Lagutin. I still think he has the best train and is one of the fastest. Giant wasted men chasing the break, they need to improve their tactics, in order to save more men for the final 5km. The difficult finish means you would like 6 men still available.
Zdenek Stybar – despite looking like a sprint finish, I have to include some puncheurs in my list. If the final 5km is taken hard, we could get a surprise. Stybar has won a stage in each of his last two grand tours he’s competed in. An explosive climber, with a fast kick. He was in the break today, but that shouldn’t put you off.
Philippe Gilbert – the former world champion has already shown his attacking intent. He should be given free reign by his team, so expect a big attack with 3km to go. Such a great rider, I expect a stage win at some point.
Fabio Felline – 2nd in the Tour of Poland was a wonderful return to form. He’s a faster sprinter than Gilbert, but not quick enough to beat the sprinters, so he needs the end of the stage to be very hard. Trek really have the bases covered, with Bonifazio and Felline.
Simon Gerrans – will be interesting to see what Gerro is allowed to do. Several times in 2016 he has been instructed to work for others, which he has done. It has still to be revealed if he will be at Orica in 2017, his role tomorrow could give us a massive hint. Despite starting the season well, he has disappointed. Hopefully he can return to old ways.
Michal Kwiatkowski – 4th place on Sunday, the Pole seems to have found some form. Sky will be watching out for Froome but Kwiatkowski will be allowed some freedom. He’ll need to decide if he attacks early or waits for the sprint.
Prediction Time
Sprinter or puncheur? That is the question that needs answered. A top level sprinter should have no problem getting to the finish of this stage, but we don’t have any top level sprinters! I think the sprinter teams will get it wrong and a late attack will take the stage, I think Stybar could just be that rider!
David Hunter
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Really like the summaries – great for people like me who follow cycling but don’t have the in depth knowledge to see how a stage is likely to pan out. Thanks!