World Championships 2015 – Road Race Preview

By David Hunter

Richmond 259.2km

After some brilliant warm up races, the big one is here.

15 laps of a strange circuit. It’s strange in a number of ways:-

We have cobbled climbs.

The climbs are short in distance.

It doesn’t look very selective.

Looks can be deceiving!

First thing that needs discussing is the climbs. They are 740m at 5%, 240m at 11% and 600m at 5.8%. The total elevation gain is also low, at 1600m. When it was first revealed, everyone thought we would get a big sprint and some still agree. However, the route is only as demanding as the riders make it. If raced fast, this would be a difficult race.

While the route doesn’t look too hard, two other variables will make it difficult: rain and distance. The forecast is not looking good and we are expecting a lot of rain and some wind too. I’m sure we all remember what happened in Italy, back in 2013. That day we only had 61 finishers, it was a battle. The forecast is great news for all the Belgians but also riders like Kristoff and Nibali.

The distance is hugely important. Any race over 250km is a real test of stamina. I remember interviewing Alessandro Petacchi, earlier this year. He told me how hard it is to sprint after such a distance. Experience is crucial and looking back at the races over 250km, in 2015, you start to build a picture of the rider who could win here.

Milan-San Remo(293km) – Degenkolb, Kristoff, Matthews, Sagan, Bonifazio, Bouhanni, Cancellara, Cimolai, Gallopin, EBH.

Amstel(258km) – Kwiatkowski, Valverde, Matthews, Costa, GVA, Gallopin, Alaphilippe, Gasparotto, Paterski, Gilbert.

LBL(253km) – Valverde, Alaphilippe, Rodriguez, Costa, Kreuziger, Bardet, Henao, Pozzovivo, Fuglsang, Moreno.

Flanders(265km) – Kristoff, Terpstra, GVA, Sagan, Benoot, Boom, Degenkolb, Roelandts, Stybar, Elmiger.

Paris-Roubaix(253km) – Degenkolb, Stybar, GVA, Boom, Elmiger, Keukeleire, Lampaert, Rowe, Debusschere, Kristoff.

Giro Stage 7(264km) – Ulissi, Lobato, Gerrans, Belletti, Battaglin, Colbrelli, Felline, Bole, Reza, Lagutin.

It’s clear that some riders have great form over a long distance. It would be a massive surprise if Degenkolb, Kristoff, Sagan, GVA, Valverde, Gallopin, Stybar and Matthews weren’t around at the finish. As usual, some teams want a sprint but others don’t. That will be the key battle of the race. Time to look at the teams.

Poland – Kwiatkowski.

Spain – Valverde and Lobato.

Colombia – Uran.

Britain – Adam Yates and Swift.

Italy – Nibali, Ulissi, Nizzolo and Viviani.

Belgium – GVA, Gilbert, Vanmarcke, Benoot, Boonen.

Holland – Boom, Dumoulin, Terpstra.

France – Alaphilippe, Gallopin, Bouhanni, Demare.

Australia – Gerrans, Matthews.

Germany – Geschke, Greipel, Degenkolb.

Norway – EBH, Kristoff.

Portugal – Costa.

Czech Republic – Stybar.

Slovenia – Bole.

Ukraine – Grivko.

Russia – Lagutin.

Denmark – Breschel.

New Zealand – Henderson.

South Africa – Impey.

USA – Farrar.

Lithuania – Navardauskas.

Ireland – Bennett.

Slovakia – Sagan.

Luxembourg – Drucker.

Quite a few teams will be happy with a sprint, but who will do all the work? The pressure will be on Australia and Germany, as they have plenty of numbers. Slovakia and Norway will hope to do very little and appear in the last couple of laps.

A few teams do not want a sprint. Belgium, Spain, France and Holland will be delighted to see a breakaway succeed. France do have some sprinters, but have a much better chance if Gallopin or Alaphilippe escape and sprint from a small group. This is where the world championships is unique and special! The onus is on the sprint teams to work, the others will wait and go on the attack. Poland dominated the 2014 race, taking control from the start. In 2013, it was Italy who took control of the race. The pressure will certainly be on Germany and Australia, in the early periods of the race.

Realistically, only 4 teams can win from a big sprint: Germany, Australia, Norway and Slovakia. As Norway and Slovakia have smaller teams, it’s 2 teams versus the whole field! This is going to be a difficult race to control. The short climbs are great for attacks, add in a number of tight corners and rain, and you’ll see that this is a good course for the breakaway specialists.

Two of the big teams don’t want a sprint. Expect to see a very attacking race from Belgium and Spain. Yes, both have a sprinter, but Boonen and Lobato are not going to win a big sprint. Belgium seem to have a whole squad of attacking riders. Some of these will be used earlier in the race, as they will protect GVA and Gilbert. Benoot, Vanmarcke and Keukeleire are great options for a long break, plus they have the added option of a Boonen sprint. Belgium seem to have all the bases covered.

Spain have less options. They have LL Sanchez and Valverde, who will look to attack in the closing laps. Lobato will be kept in reserve for the sprint. The final climb is great for him, as his positioning is usually terrible. The hill will allow him to stay near the front and he is capable of finishing in the top 5. Despite that, Valverde will be plan A, B and C! To create an opportunity for him, they must attack early. Hopefully they don’t wait until the final two laps and actually start to light it up from much further out.

Italy win the weirdest team award! The have many, many options but few riders used to working. With Nibali they have a man in serious form. He has been magnificent in the recent Italian races, and is looking like a real contender. The cobbles and rain are perfect for him, but they need to make the race hard. They also have Ulissi, Felline, Trentin, Nizzolo and Viviani, I would have preferred them to focus on Nibali and forget about the sprinters but they do arrive with a mixed team and will have to make do. Realistically, Italy have to attack as Nizzolo and Viviani cannot be relied upon to win any type of sprint. Like Spain, they need to make a move with 5 laps to go and not wait until the final lap.

Having 9 riders and a great sprinter means that the pressure is all on Germany and Australia. They other 9 man teams will not help much as their sprinter is weaker. Teams like Holland and the Czech Republic will join Italy, Spain, Belgium and France in attacking and making this is a hard race. Norway won’t be expected to contribute to the chase, until the closing laps. They have the race favourite, Alexander Kristoff, but he only has 5 teammates. Don’t expect to see the Norwegian riders until the closing stages. They have some tough tactical decisions to make, as we approach the end. Expect to see EBH joining the attacks and not working. If it stays away, he would have a great chance of victory. Let’s not forget his brilliant form. Since the Tour he was 6th in the Tour of Denmark, 4th in the Arctic Race of Norway and won the Tour of Britain. This is a rider at the very top of his game and a danger for the others. In my opinion, Kristoff will be the fastest man in the sprint. It’s going to be hard for Greipel to hang on, so Alexander is the fastest. The 1% finish is great for him and not steep enough for Matthews and Degenkolb. Norway will have a big say in the outcome of this race.

Sagan is back in his usual position, lacking teammates. He’s used to this, arriving with just his brother and Michael Kolar. Not having to think about tactics can actually be a positive. Sagan will remain the bunch and not look to do anything until 2 laps to go. He will hope that all the early moves are covered by the bigger nations and then he’ll make a judgement call close to home. He’ll have to decide whether to attack or not. Without teammates, he has no say in bringing back the break. If he senses that teams will not work, he’ll have to join the attack himself. As we all know, this is a move he likes. A solo Sagan victory is not unthinkable, in fact, it’s probably more likely than him winning the bunch sprint.

The Climbs

As I’ve mentioned, they aren’t hard. Libby Hill is cobbled and has two switchbacks, but it also has a generous gutter for the riders. It’s very hard to create gaps here, but being at the front makes it possible to attack on the descent. This part of the race is often underlooked, but it’s crucial. The strongest riders attack when the others are suffering, that’s usually just over the top of a climb. In fact, it’s where the under 23 race was decided.

23rd street is over in an instant. Despite being only 240m, some riders will suffer. Strong riders will sprint up this climb, as fast as possible, again, it’s hard to drop riders but they can lose position. This is the hill for the Belgians. All of their riders will love the thought of sprinting up the climb and making others suffer. We might even get a cheeky attack from Tom Boonen. It ain’t the Taainenberg, but Tom loves an uphill sprint. The whole cycling world would stop if Boonen goes for a classic drive up this climb!

If you can get 10 seconds over the top of this climb, you have a great chance of staying away. The peloton will hesitate, looking to see who will work, and you are away. The final climb is nothing, 600m at 5.8%. With the rainbow jersey within reach, the breakaway rider will haul himself over the line. That’s the beauty of this course, the distance between the three climbs and the finish. It makes it very hard to organise a chase and secure a sprint.

Prediction Time

The rain will destroy the hopes of the sprinters. So who does it favour? With so many riders focused on a break, Belgium have to be the main team to beat. Luck will play a big part in who stays away but they have GVA, Gilbert, Vanmarcke all capable of winning. Of the sprinters, Sagan is the only one capable of going in the break, he still has a chance. Due to a lack of teammates, it is a small chance. Fighting against the Belgians will be Nibali, Valverde, Terpstra, Dumoulin, Alaphilippe. Gallopin, Gerrans, EBH, Stybar and Breschel.

In all honesty, this is wide open. As I write this I’m getting very excited as I believe this could be one of the best races of a brilliant season. As I try to  pick a winner, my mind is drawn to Tony Gallopin. The classy Frenchman is such a talented rider. He was amazing in the TTT, helping Lotto to an outstanding 7th place. He was solid in both Canadian races and loves some bad weather. He’s a rider that usually lands one big win every season. Despite winning a stage in Paris-Nice, I think we are still waiting for his big 2015 win. It’s coming here! He has a fast finish from a small group, but I see him winning solo.

Vive la France;)

David Hunter

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